The playoff field has grown from one to… four. There are still six automatic bids up for grabs heading into the final week of the season. We’d have half the automatic bids nailed down, but once again the #1 team in the land tripped over its own feet. Over in the OVC, although there’s one game that makes it highly unlikely, there’s still a chance of a six-way tie for first place which would result in a three-way coin flip to determine the autobid.
Automatic playoff bids already claimed:
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference: Norfolk State
Patriot League: Lehigh
Southern Conference: Georgia Southern
Southland Conference: Sam Houston State
Additionally, Harvard has won the Ivy League, and Drake will share the Pioneer League title with either San Diego or Jacksonville.
Key games this week:
bold indicates team will claim their conference’s autobid with a win.
bold italics indicates team can claim their conference’s autobid with a win, depending on other outcomes.
Montana at Montana State (Big Sky)
North Dakota State at 2-8 Western Illinois (Missouri Valley)
Northern Iowa at Illinois State (Missouri Valley)
Liberty at 7-3 Stony Brook (Big South)
Towson at 3-7 Rhode Island (Colonial)
Maine at New Hampshire (Colonial)
6-3 Tennessee Tech at 3-7 Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
5-5 Tennessee-Martin at 6-4 Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley)
5-5 Jacksonville State at 5-5 Tennessee State (Ohio Valley)
7-3 Alabama A&M at 5-5 Prairie View A&M (SWAC East; SWAC West)
7-3 Jacksonville at 8-2 San Diego (winner claims share of Pioneer League title with Drake)
5-5 Sacred Heart at 7-3 Albany (Northeast)
2-8 Robert Morris (PA) at 8-2 Duquesne (Northeast)
I have composed a handy primer for playoff formats and guidelines, because we’re getting very very close to starting to hand out bids.
BIG SKY:
Eliminated: Northern Arizona, Idaho State, Northern Colorado, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Weber State, Portland State
Could go this week: nobody
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Montana State (clinched share of title)
CLINCH ALERT: Montana State/Montana (winner claims autobid)
All four games last week went as expected, but none of them particularly mattered (although Portland State is still eyeing a possible playoff invitation).
This week, it’s the Brawl of the Wild in Bozeman, as Montana visits Montana State. A Grizzlies win would cause a split of the Big Sky title, and Montana would get the autobid. If Montana State wins, they get the autobid and win the conference title outright. Portland should handle Weber to stay in view of an at-large, and Sacramento and Eastern Washington should also pick up wins to end their seasons. In Eastern’s case, it will pretty much be a triumph, as they’ll finish with a winning record after their nightmarish 0-4 start. Northern Arizona is not likely to get past Southern Utah.
BIG SOUTH:
Eliminated: Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina, Presbyterian, Virginia Military, Gardner-Webb
Could go this week: Stony Brook, Liberty
CLINCH ALERT: Liberty/Stony Brook (winner claims outright title and autobid)
I predicted an “upset” for VMI, but Presbyterian mauled them. Oh, well. Stony Brook took care of any questions for this week by mugging Gardner-Webb.
Presbyterian, Coastal Carolina, and Gardner-Webb should win this week. The final game, of course, is the de facto conference championship game as Liberty visits Stony Brook. I really don’t know what to expect here; if we use each team’s last game as any indication, Liberty’s in trouble. The Flames had to struggle to get by VMI two weekends ago, but on the other hand the week off to prepare is going to be a big advantage.
COLONIAL:
Ineligible: Massachusetts, Georgia State
Eliminated: Richmond, Villanova, William & Mary, Rhode Island, James Madison, Delaware
Could go this week: Old Dominion, New Hampshire, Maine, Towson
CLINCH ALERT: Towson, Maine, New Hampshire, Old Dominion (see below)
Towson gave New Hampshire a hip-check in a shootout, and Maine kept pace with a pedestrian win over Massachusetts. Old Dominion clung to life with a narrow escape at William & Mary, while James Madison and Delaware kept flagging playoff hopes alive. And incoming member Georgia State continued to flounder, losing to a Division II squad.
The picture is complex, yet simple to explain: should New Hampshire beat Maine while Towson loses, we will have a four-way tie for the conference title between those three teams and Old Dominion; Towson, who has beaten them all, would claim the autobid. If Maine beats New Hampshire and Towson loses, Maine will win the conference title outright (and, of course, the autobid). If Maine and Towson both win, they share the title; Towson gets the autobid. If New Hampshire and Towson both win, Towson wins the title outright. The autobid is between Maine and Towson, period; New Hampshire and Old Dominion are out of that picture.
Of course, since Towson plays at Rhode Island, Towson winning the autobid is the most likely outcome. I’m feeling that New Hampshire is a slight favorite over Maine, which only increases Towson’s chances. In other games, Delaware should get to 7-4 with a win over Villanova. James Madison is a slight favorite to also get there, but it’s a close call. And I don’t know what’s going to happen in Richmond.
GREAT WEST:
Eliminated: Southern Utah, Cal-Davis
Could go this week: North Dakota, South Dakota
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Cal Poly-SLO (clinched share of title)
CLINCH ALERT: North Dakota/South Dakota (winner shares title with Cal Poly)
North Dakota slugged one out with Cal-Davis and came out on top, setting up this week’s showdown with South Dakota. The winner will share the conference title with Cal Poly. Southern Utah should win their non-conference season finale; the other two teams will probably not fare as well.
IVY:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Harvard (clinched outright title)
Harvard dispatched Penn with no problem, and knocked Yale and Penn out of the race while claiming a share of the Ivy League crown; a half an hour later, Dartmouth had finished their upset of Brown, which gave Harvard the title outright.
So, on a week where nothing but Harvard/Yale really matters, your expected winners: Harvard, Penn, Brown, and Dartmouth.
MID-EASTERN:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Norfolk State (clinched outright title and autobid)
Norfolk State left absolutely nothing to chance, drilling Morgan State to capture the undisputed MEAC title. They’ll take the week off to prepare for the playoffs.
There may be another MEAC entrant; the winner of the Florida A&M/Bethune-Cookman game is in pretty good shape to snag an at-large bid. Bethune is the favorite, but anything could happen there. Other probable winners: Howard, NCA&T, Hampton, and SC State.
MISSOURI VALLEY:
Eliminated: Southern Illinois, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Western Illinois, Youngstown State, Indiana State
Could go this week: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, North Dakota State
CLINCH ALERT: North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State
Talk about your colossal blunders. North Dakota State lost by a field goal at home to Youngstown, and left the door wide open to their challengers, neither of whom had conference games last week.
NDSU will still claim a share of the title and the autobid with a win this week, and unlike last week, they’re going to finish the drill against 2-8 Western Illinois. The problem, such as it is, is that they now need help from Illinois State to claim the title outright. If Northern Iowa beats Illinois State, the title is shared between NDSU and UNI; if NDSU were to lose, UNI would grab the title outright, and the autobid. If NDSU loses, and Illinois State wins… three-way tie, though NDSU would still get the autobid.
NORTHEAST:
Eliminated: Saint Francis (PA), Central Connecticut State, Wagner, Robert Morris (PA), Sacred Heart, Monmouth (NJ)
Could go this week: Bryant, Duquesne, Albany
CLINCH ALERT Albany, Duquesne, Bryant (see below)
Albany, Duquesne, and Bryant all won, eliminating Sacred Heart and Monmouth. That brings us to the final week. Bryant is still not yet eligible for the playoffs until next year, so we don’t have to concern ourselves with them as far as the autobid. An Albany win or a Duquesne loss gives the autobid to Albany; if Duquesne wins and Albany loses, the Dukes get the playoff bid. If they both do different things, the team that wins claims the outright title. If they both win, they’ll share it; if they both lose, they’ll also share it — as will Bryant should they handle Central Connecticut State. Duquesne, by the way, has an outside shot at a playoff berth if they win regardless of what Albany does; the NEC isn’t a strong league, but 9-2 may be hard to ignore, too.
As far as what will happen… Albany should win, but it’s by no means certain. Duquesne will almost certainly win, and Bryant’s a pretty good bet as well. Monmouth should handle Wagner in the week’s remaining game.
OHIO VALLEY:
Eliminated: Eastern Illinois, Southeast Missouri State, Austin Peay
Could go this week: Tennessee-Martin, Murray State, Tennessee State, Jacksonville State, Eastern Kentucky. Tennessee Tech
CLINCH ALERT: Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Tennessee State (all can clinch autobid), Murray State, Tennessee-Martin (cannot clinch autobid, but can claim share of title)
First, Sergeant York Trophy news, because this is far less complex than sorting out the conference race: Tennessee State knocked off Tennessee-Martin; that means that if Tennessee Tech defeats Austin Peay this week, Tennessee State will take possession of the trophy. If Austin Peay wins, they will claim possession.
Every time a team gets a grip on this thing, someone comes along and clubs them in the back of the head. This week, it was Eastern Kentucky’s turn to get shafted, as Tennessee Tech upended them. Worse, everything that needed to happen to set up the possibility of a six-way tie DID, which means I have one hell of a headache now.
So. Here’s the deal.
If Tennessee Tech beats Austin Peay, which is very likely, Tennessee Tech will claim the autobid and make the rest of this completely irrelevant. However, if they lose…
If Eastern Kentucky beats Tennessee-Martin (toss-up), Eastern Kentucky will claim the autobid. If they lose too…
If Jacksonville State beats Tennessee State (toss-up), Jacksonville State will claim the autobid. If they manage to lose, too…
We have a five-way tie (or six, if Murray State wins, which is highly likely).
In a five-way tie, Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State would both be 3-1 against the field; Tennessee State beat Tennessee Tech, TSU would get the autobid.
In a six-way tie, TTU, TSU, and EKU would each be 3-2 against the field, and 1-1 against each other. The next tiebreaker is record against the next team in the standings; in this case, that’s the group of Jax, EKU, and UTM. They all went 2-1 against the group. Seventh? Austin Peay; they all will have lost to Peay, and they all beat SE Missouri and Eastern Illinois.
Which means a coin flip among the three schools. YIKES.
There, now you have a headache.
PATRIOT:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Lehigh (clinched outright title and autobid)
After sorting out the OVC mess, it’s nice to be able to just type “Lehigh hammered Georgetown, thus claiming the autobid and winning the title outright.” Georgetown might possibly still be in position for an at-large playoff bid, but it’s very dicey and I wouldn’t count on it.
This week, the most-played rivalry ever is going to be a massacre, as Lehigh should pummel Lafayette. Bucknell and Holy Cross should close out the season with wins.
PIONEER:
Eliminated: Valparaiso, Davidson, Morehead State, Marist, Butler, Dayton, Campbell
Could go this week: Jacksonville, San Diego
CLINCH ALERT: San Diego/Jacksonville (winner will earn share of title)
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Drake (clinched share of title)
The only surprise this week was Campbell’s loss to Valparaiso, but in the end it didn’t matter; Campbell would have finished in fourth place in the league no matter what they did as a result of Drake, San Diego, and Jacksonville all winning. The important thing there, of course, was Drake winning; that secured a share of the title for the Bulldogs.
San Diego hosts Jacksonville this week, and the winner will capture the other half of the title. Butler and Davidson should both win, as should Campbell, who finishes out of conference.
SOUTHERN:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Georgia Southern (clinched outright title and autobid)
Oh, it has to hurt to be Wofford. They got the help they needed to clinch the autobid last week when Elon upset Furman, but they couldn’t take care of their own end of the deal, getting handled easily by Georgia Southern. And thus, the Eagles claim the outright SoCon title, and the automatic bid.
Wofford should still make the playoffs, as should Appalachian State, assuming neither stumble this week. That shouldn’t happen, but neither game is a gimme. The rest of the conference is playing OOC this week; Western Carolina, whose coach resigned after their loss to Appalachian, will probably lose to Coastal Carolina. Everyone else is going to lose, because they’re all playing SEC teams.
However, we will be treated to the spectacle of 9-1 Georgia Southern visiting 9-1 Alabama… in fact, of the four teams playing up this week, only Citadel has a worse record than the SEC team they’re facing.
SOUTHLAND:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Sam Houston State (clinched share of title)
Sam Houston kept rolling, and they’re the only remaining unbeaten in FCS after throttling Northwestern State. Central Arkansas will have to wait and see what the committee thinks, but I think their squeaker over Texas State — their seventh win in a row — will be enough to get into the field.
This week, expect wins from Sam Houston and… oh, hell, I can’t even begin to pick any of these other games, except not-really-a-member UTSA’s game against D-II Minot State, which is sort of obvious. They’re that close.
SOUTHWESTERN:
Eliminated (East): Mississippi Valley State, Alcorn State
Eliminated (West): Texas Southern
Could go this week (East): Jackson State, Alabama A&M, Alabama State
Could go this week (West): Southern, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling State
CLINCH ALERT (East): Alabama A&M, Alabama State, Jackson State (see below)
CLINCH ALERT (West): Prairie View A&M (would clinch title with win)
The nuclear option detonated last week, as Southern upended Alabama State, Jackson State dumped Alabama A&M, and while Prairie View won, absolutely nobody that they needed to lose managed to do so. The end result was that nobody got eliminated from either race.
Here’s the scenarios:
First things first: Alabama A&M and Prairie View are playing one another. If Prairie View wins, the SWAC Championship Game will be Alabama State vs. Prairie View. If Alabama A&M wins, Alabama A&M goes to the title game… but things get complicated in the West.
I need to note here that Jackson State is ineligible for the SWAC championship game. If both Alabama A&M and Jackson State win, and Southern and Texas Southern both win, Jackson State will technically be the East Division champion, but Alabama A&M would go to the title game.
Now, if Prairie View loses, we’ll have to wait one more week for the final two regular-season FCS games of the year to play out. They would still go to the title game should UAPB lose to Texas Southern AND Grambling lose to Southern next week; PVA&M holds all the tiebreakers except for a four-way tie at 5-4, which UAPB would win.
Now, predictatron engage: Alabama A&M should win, as should Jackson. I don’t know about UAPB/Texas Southern.
INDEPENDENT:
South Alabama was off last week; they should handle Cal Poly this week.