We have a new #1, as #2 Marian upended the previous poll-topper. Six conference titles have been claimed, and six playoff bids are secure; the two sets are not precisely congruent. Everything else will be settled this Saturday.
Conference champions determined thus far:
Dakota Athletic Conference: Valley City State (no auto-bid, but playoff bid secure)
Frontier Conference: Carroll (MT) (playoff bid secure)
Great Plains Athletic Conference: Morningside (playoff bid secure)
Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference: Ottawa (playoff bid secure with a win)
Mid-South Conference (West): Georgetown (KY) (playoff bid secure)
Mid-States Football Association (Mideast League): Marian (IN) (playoff bid secure)
Independent autobid: Azusa Pacific (playoff bid secure)
bold indicates team will claim at least a share of their conference title and their conference’s automatic bid with a win.
bold italics indicates team might not win an autobid, but will certainly claim a playoff spot with a win. (If the conference is listed, they can win the autobid depending on other results; if not, they cannot win their conference’s autobid, but will receive an at-large bid with a win.)
italics indicates team can claim at least a share of their conference title and their conference’s autobid with a win and other results — but might not receive a playoff bid if they do not claim the autobid.
Although a team not already ranked in the top 20 would be at risk of not reaching the playoffs, every team looking to win their way into the field should manage to get there. Specifically, this only applies to Grand View, who will almost certainly move up at least three spots should they beat William Penn. If everything goes according to form, the top 15 teams will all make the field; only #16 Benedictine (KS) would be deprived of a spot.
2-6 Peru State at #4 MidAmerica Nazarene (Heart of America)
3-6 Jamestown at #5 Saint Xavier
3-5 Evangel at #7 Missouri Valley (Heart of America)
#8 William Penn at #23 Grand View (MSFL Midwest League)
1-9 Central State (OH) at #10 Saint Francis (IN)
#17 Saint Ambrose at #13 Saint Francis (IL) (MSFL Midwest League)
#14 Bethel (TN) at 6-3 Shorter (Mid-South West)
#19 Langston at #15 Southern Nazarene (Central States)
6-3 Cumberlands (KY) at #20 Cumberland (TN) (Mid-South West)
I have composed a handy primer for playoff formats and guidelines, because we’re getting very very close to starting to hand out bids.
CENTRAL STATES:
Eliminated: Southwestern Assemblies of God, Texas College, Northwestern Oklahoma State, Bacone
Could go this week: Southern Nazarene
CLINCH ALERT: Southern Nazarene (would clinch share of title and autobid with win)
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Langston (clinched share of title)
Southern Nazarene took out Bacone, eliminating Bacone from the race. Langston had a rough time against hapless Texas College, but did win, clinching a share of the conference title.
Saturday, Langston will visit Southern Nazarene; both teams are already in the top 20, so the winner will certainly finish there and thus the conference’s automatic bid is secure. If Southern Nazarene wins, and I expect that, they will claim a share of the title, and will secure a bid to the playoffs; Langston will be done. If Langston wins, they’ll win the conference title outright, and the playoff bid; Southern Nazarene will be done. In other action, SW Assemblies should deal with Texas College, and Bacone should take down Panhandle State.
DAKOTA:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Valley City State
Valley City didn’t impress, but did get past Robert Morris. They moved up to #12 in the poll, and are idle this week, so their playoff bid is about as secure as it can get; obviously, it’s impossible for more than four teams to win a conference title and finish between #17-20. VSCU would have to drop in the poll despite being idle to be at any risk whatsoever, and even a drop of a spot or two wouldn’t be enough to cost them the bid, I think.
The only team in action this week is Jamestown, and they’re going to get punished by an angry Saint Xavier team still hurting from last week’s loss.
FRONTIER:
Eliminated: Montana Tech, Montana Western, Montana State-Northern, Rocky Mountain
Could go this week: Eastern Oregon
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Carroll (MT) (clinched share of title and autobid)
Carroll and Eastern both won, which gave Carroll a share of the title and the autobid due to tiebreakers. At #2, there’s chance in hell of Carroll falling from the top 20.
Both teams should win again this week. A Carroll win secures the outright title, as does an EOU loss; should EOU win and Carroll lose, EOU would share the title. There’s no way EOU’s getting into the playoffs, however; they’d need to jump about 8 spots in the poll, and a win over Rocky Mountain’s not going to do that unless all hell breaks loose. Montana Western/Montana Tech, the remaining game, is a toss-up.
GREAT PLAINS:
Eliminated: Dordt, Briar Cliff, Midland, Concordia (NE), Nebraska Wesleyan, Hastings, Dakota Wesleyan
Could go this week: Doane, Northwestern (IA)
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Morningside (clinched share of title and autobid)
Morningside won, and that secured the autobid (they’re ranked highly enough that a loss this week, even to lowly Briar Cliff, shouldn’t kill them, and they’re not losing anyway) and a share of the conference title. Doane and Northwestern stayed in position to claim a share of the title with a win, and both teams should win this week, but the unlikelihood of Morningside losing makes it a very long shot. The other two games on the schedule are coin flips.
HEART OF AMERICA:
Eliminated: Culver-Stockton, Graceland, Avila, Peru State, Evangel, Central Methodist, Baker
Could go this week: Benedictine (KS), Missouri Valley, MidAmerica Nazarene
CLINCH ALERT: MidAmerica Nazarene, Missouri Valley, Benedictine (see below)
Baker upset Benedictine, while MANU and Missouri Valley held serve, eliminating Baker and Central Methodist.
Last week’s statement regarding the tiebreakers was… wrong. Head-to-head is still the first tiebreak, which means that Missouri Valley need only defeat Central Methodist to claim the automatic bid and at least a share of the title (outright if MANU loses), which would be secure. Should they lose, MANU would claim the outright conference title and autobid with a win over Evangel. Both teams should win. If both teams lose, Benedictine would also share in the conference title with an almost certain win over Culver-Stockton. However, Missouri Valley would claim the autobid. In other games, Baker should roll over Graceland, and Avila/Peru State is a toss-up.
KANSAS:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Ottawa (clinched outright title and automatic bid pending ranking)
Ottawa took care of business, downing Friends, and won the outright conference title. Their bid to the playoffs is still theoretically at risk, as a loss to 1-9 Bethel would really do some damage, but that’s also really unlikely. In other games, Bethany should win; the rest of the games are all pretty unpredictable.
MID-SOUTH:
Eliminated (West): Faulkner, Union (KY), Belhaven
Could go this week (West): Shorter, Cumberlands (KY), Bethel (TN)
CLINCH ALERT (West): Cumberland (TN), Bethel (TN) (outright), Cumberlands (KY), Shorter (share)
EAST DIVISION CHAMPION: Georgetown (KY) (clinched outright title and autobid)
Georgetown blasted Lindsey Wilson, claiming the outright division title and the automatic bid, which is secure as they’re no way even a loss to Belhaven will drop them far enough to cost them the spot. In the West, Cumberland did lose to Belhaven, which puts them in a bad spot. Bethel won, staying in range of the title; Cumberlands and Shorter are both still alive for a share of the title.
If Shorter and Cumberlands were to both win, there would be a four-way tie atop the division. The highest-ranked team would claim the conference title for purposes of the autobid; that would certainly be Bethel or Shorter, depending on where they end up. The question, of course, is whether “where they end up” is in the top 20. If not… no MSC West team will be in the playoffs.
That’s the bad news. The good: if Bethel or Cumberland win and the other loses, the winning team will win the title outright, and will get the autobid, and it will be secure since they’re both in the top 20 and the winner’s not going to drop after winning. If they both win, Cumberland claims the autobid, and Bethel will certainly claim an at-large bid.
I haven’t gotten to predictions yet, which will clear most of this up real quick. I think Cumberland is going to lose to Cumberlands, while Bethel should beat Shorter, and those results would clear everything up quite nicely. As for other games, Campbellsville, Georgetown, Lindsey Wilson, and Pikeville should all win. Union/Faulkner, I don’t know.
MID-STATES:
Eliminated (Midwest): Waldorf, Trinity International, Olivet Nazarene, Iowa Wesleyan
Could go this week (Midwest): Grand View, Saint Ambrose, Saint Francis (IL), William Penn
MIDEAST LEAGUE CHAMPION: Marian (IN) (clinched outright title and autobid)
CLINCH ALERT (Midwest): William Penn, Saint Francis (IL), Saint Ambrose, Grand View (see below and tremble with fear)
Marian dispatched Saint Xavier with relative ease to capture the Mideast League crown outright, and the autobid. William Penn won a tough one over Saint Ambrose, which prevented SAC from claiming a share of the title; along with Grand View’s win, we’ve now got a four-way tie at 5-1 in the Midwest League.
So… those four 5-1 teams face off in pairs this week. The winners of those two games will share the conference title. As for the automatic bid… If William Penn beats Grand View, game over; Penn claims the autobid. If Grand View wins, they should move into the top 20 and would claim the autobid if Saint Francis (IL) beats Saint Ambrose. If Grand View and Saint Ambrose win, Saint Ambrose gets the autobid.
What I expect is for Penn to win (solving the problem). I also expect Saint Francis to win, and in other games you should expect to see wins from Saint Xavier, Saint Francis (IN), Olivet Nazarene, and Iowa Wesleyan. I don’t know what to make of any of the four remaining games on the schedule; it’s a mass of mediocrity.
INDEPENDENTS:
Azusa drilled Menlo, and since they’re idle this week and are sitting at #9 in the poll, their playoff bid is secure as the independent autobid. This week’s winners should include Edward Waters, Webber, and Menlo; Ave Maria and Haskell are doomed.
Sorting it out:
Given my predictions for this week’s action, here’s where I see things ending up in terms of the playoff field:
1. Marian (IN) (MSFA Mideast champs)
2. Carroll (MT) (Frontier champs)
3. Georgetown (KY) (Mid-South East champs)
4. MidAmerica Nazarene (at-large #1)
5. Saint Xavier (at-large #2)
6. Morningside (Great Plains champs)
7. Missouri Valley (Heart of America champs)
8. William Penn (MSFA Midwest champs)
9. Azusa Pacific (independent autobid)
10. Saint Francis (IN) (at-large #3)
11. Ottawa (Kansas champs)
12. Valley City State (at-large #4)
13. Saint Francis (IL) (at-large #5)
14. Bethel (TN) (at-large #6 OR Mid-South West champs)
15. Southern Nazarene/Langston winner (Central States champs)
16. either Cumberland (TN) as Mid-South West champs or Benedictine (KS) as at-large #6
Realistically, the only games that can alter this landscape are William Penn/Grand View, Saint Francis (IL)/Saint Ambrose, and Cumberland/Cumberlands. Everyone else in the above list is either done for the year or would have to really fall flat on their face to screw up their playoff plans.