{"id":1407,"date":"2011-12-02T09:00:59","date_gmt":"2011-12-02T15:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/?p=1407"},"modified":"2011-12-01T00:59:04","modified_gmt":"2011-12-01T06:59:04","slug":"fcs-second-round-previews-part-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/2011\/12\/02\/fcs-second-round-previews-part-one\/","title":{"rendered":"FCS: Second Round Previews (Part One)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Previews, team capsules, and predictions for the second-round FCS playoff games taking place in the top half of the bracket this week follow.
\n
\nWofford (8-3) at Northern Iowa (9-2)<\/strong><\/span>
\nUNI Dome, Cedar Falls IA, 5pm ET
\nAirs on ESPN GamePlan. Video available via ESPN3. Audio available via WSPG<\/a> and Northern Iowa<\/a>. Live Stats available via StatBroadcast<\/a>.
\nSeries: first meeting.<\/p>\n

Wofford Terriers<\/span>
\n\"\"
\nLocation: Spartanburg SC
\nConference: Southern
\nColors: Gold and Black
\nPlayoff appearances: 5, 4-4 (2003, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, plus one NAIA appearance and two D-II appearances)
\nCoach: Mike Ayers (24th year, 162-110-1; overall 173-131-2 including three years at East Tennessee State)
\nKey games:
\nOffense: 33.4 ppg, 441.6 ypg
\nDefense: 24.0 ppg, 318.5 ypg
\nPassing offense: 85.5 ypg
\nPassing defense: 185.9 ypg
\nRushing offense: 356.2 ypg
\nRushing defense: 132.6 ypg
\nTurnover margin: +1
\nKey players: QB Mitch Allen (46.3%, 707 yds, 4 TD, 7 INT; 137-700 rushing, 4.9 ypc, 10 TD), RB Eric Breitenstein (245-1343, 122.1 ypg, 5.8 ypc, 16 TD), RB Donovan Johnson (102-897, 81.6 ypg, 9.0 ypc, 9 TD), LB Alvin Scioneaux (7.5 sacks, 16 TFL)
\nOther notes: Triple optionpalooza. Wofford will just run the ball down your throat and dare you to say anything about it. They’re mildly weak against the pass, which is good news for teams that are watching the Terriers eat the clock, and if Wofford gets behind late they’re usually in trouble because they have almost no quick-strike ability through the air.<\/p>\n

Northern Iowa Panthers<\/span>
\n\"\"
\nLocation: Cedar Falls IA
\nConference: Missouri Valley
\nColors: Purple and Gold
\nPlayoff appearances: 15, 18-15 (1985, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, plus one D-II appearance in 1975, 0-1)
\nCoach: Mark Farley (11th year, 98-39)
\nKey games:
\nOffense: 27.4 ppg, 350.4 ypg
\nDefense: 16.2 ppg, 334.8 ypg
\nPassing offense: 181.3 ypg
\nPassing defense: 210.5 ypg
\nRushing offense: 169.1 ypg
\nRushing defense: 124.4 ypg
\nTurnover margin: +15
\nKey players: QB Tirrell Rennie (59.6%, 1642 yds, 11 TD, 2 INT; 138-739 rushing, 73.9 ypg, 5.4 ypc, 9 TD), RB David Johnson (167-730, 66.4 ypg, 4.4 ypc, 8 TD), K Tyler Sievertsen (17-18, long 48, 9-9 inside 40), DB Jordan Smith (4 INT), DB Garrett Scott (4 INT), DL Ben Boothby (7.5 sacks, 15.5 TFL)
\nOther notes: UNI is the fifth seed, meaning they would be guaranteed to host the quarterfinal if they beat Wofford and Montana loses their second-round game. If I didn’t tell you that three Panthers have three or more interceptions, and that they hold opponents to a 68% scoring percentage in the red zone (42% TD percentage), you’d wonder why they were any good looking at their yardage numbers. Well, there’s your answer.<\/p>\n

Jon’s Prediction<\/span>:
\nNorthern Iowa 28, Wofford 24. Wofford’s going to be able to run on the Panthers, but not incredibly well. Northern Iowa should be able to get some traction in the passing game, and while Wofford’s not going to play into their interception-happy secondary, they should also manage to win the turnover battle if there is one.<\/p>\n

\n

Central Arkansas (9-3) at Montana (9-2)<\/strong><\/span>
\nWashington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula MT, 2pm ET
\nAirs on ESPN GamePlan. Video available via ESPN3. Audio available via TCWorks (mu3 streaming file)<\/a> and Montana<\/a>. Live Stats available via Montana<\/a>.
\nSeries: first meeting.<\/p>\n

Central Arkansas Bears<\/span>
\n\"\"
\nLocation: Conway AR
\nConference: Southland
\nColors: Purple and Gray
\nPlayoff appearances: 1, 1-0 (2011; 2 appearances in D-II playoffs (2-2) and 13 NAIA playoff appearances (14-10) with 3 NAIA championships)
\nCoach: Clint Conque (12th year, 89-50)
\nKey games: 48-42 loss in OT at FBS Louisiana Tech on 9\/10; 31-10 loss at Sam Houston State on 9\/17; 21-18 win over then #22 McNeese State on 10\/15; 23-22 win over Texas State on 11\/12, 34-14 win at #21 Tennessee Tech in first round on 11\/26
\nOffense: 33.8 ppg, 408.6 ypg
\nDefense: 27.7 ppg, 408.0 ypg
\nPassing offense: 282.1 ypg
\nPassing defense: 260.6 ypg
\nRushing offense: 126.5 ypg
\nRushing defense: 147.4 ypg
\nTurnover margin: +13
\nKey players: QB Nathan Dick (64.1%, 3010 yds, 30 TD, 8 INT), RB Jackie Hinton (141-666, 66.6 ypg, 4.7 ypc, 4 TD), WR Jesse Grandy (46-731, 60.9 ypg, 15.9 ypc, 8 TD), DB Jestin Love (5 INT, 1 TD), DE Jermayne Lett (5 sacks, 16.5 TFL), LB Seth Allison (14.5 TFL)
\nOther notes: Against a team that’s defensively stronger against the run, any UCA game is going to be a shootout. Against a team that can defend the pass well, they’re in trouble unless that team’s just hopeless against the run.<\/p>\n

Montana Grizzlies<\/span>
\n\"\"
\nLocation: Missoula MT
\nConference: Big Sky
\nColors: Maroon and Silver
\nPlayoff appearances: 21, 30-18, 2 titles (1982, 1988, 1989, 1993, 1994, 1995<\/strong> 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001<\/strong>, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011)
\nCoach: Robin Pflugrad (2nd year, 16-6)
\nKey games:
\nOffense: 32.5 ppg, 420.6 ypg
\nDefense: 20.4 ppg, 321.5 ypg
\nPassing offense: 206.7 ypg
\nPassing defense: 198.5 ypg
\nRushing offense: 213.9 ypg
\nRushing defense: 123.0 ypg
\nTurnover margin: +8
\nKey players: QB Jordan Johnson (58.5%, 1792 yrds, 15 TD, 6 INT), RB Peter Nguyen (120-689, 62.6 ypg, 5.7 ypc, 1 TD), RB Jordan Canada (84-474, 47.4 ypg, 5.6 ypc, 5 TD), PR\/KR Jabin Sambrano (2 TD returns), DT Bryan Waldhauser (6 sacks, 12 TFL)
\nOther notes: It’s impossible to stop the Grizzlies unless your defense shuts down both the ground and air attacks. They’re a little soft against the pass, <\/p>\n

Jon’s Prediction<\/span>:
\nMontana 34, Central Arkansas 23. The Bears are just too susceptible to the pass for this to work out for them. They’ll score, too, but not enough.<\/p>\n

\n

New Hampshire (8-3) at Montana State (9-2)<\/strong><\/span>
\nBobcat Stadium, Bozeman MT, 2pm ET
\nAirs on ESPN GamePlan. Video available via ESPN3. Audio available via Stretch Internet<\/a> and KXLB<\/a>. Live Stats don’t appear to be available.
\nSeries: Montana State leads 1-0 (17-16 at Montana State, 1976 D-II Playoffs)<\/p>\n

New Hampshire Wildcats<\/span>
\n\"\"
\nLocation: Durham NH
\nConference: Colonial
\nColors: White and Blue
\nPlayoff appearances: 10, 6-9 (1991, 1994, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, plus two appearances in D-II playoffs in 1975, 1976, 1-2)
\nCoach: Sean McDonnell (13th year, 96-61)
\nKey games:
\nOffense: 33.5 ppg, 444.1 ypg
\nDefense: 32.1 ppg, 430.9 ypg
\nPassing offense: 281.5 ypg
\nPassing defense: 253.9 ypg
\nRushing offense: 162.6 ypg
\nRushing defense: 177.0 ypg
\nTurnover margin: -5
\nKey players: QB Kevin Decker (69.7%, 3072 yds, 20 TD, 14 INT; 121-417 rushing, 9 TD), RB Dontra Peters (112-568, 56.8 ypg, 5.1 ypc, 7 TD), WR Joey Orlando (49-617, 12.6 ypc, 3 TD), WR R.J. Harris (46-658, 14.3 ypc, 7 TD), DB Chris Houston (5 INT)
\nOther notes: Unless the opponent has either no offense or a ridiculous defense, odds are a New Hampshire game will be a wild shootout. Somehow, they’ve managed to come out on top more often than not this year.<\/p>\n

Montana State Bobcats<\/span>
\n\"\"
\nLocation: Bozeman MT
\nConference: Big Sky
\nColors: Blue and Gold
\nPlayoff appearances: 6, 4-4, 1 title (1984<\/strong>, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2010, 2011, plus one D-II appearance in 1976, winning the title)
\nCoach: Rob Ash (5th year, 38-19; overall 214-118-5 including 18 years at Drake and 9 years at Juniata)
\nKey games:
\nOffense: 34.2 ppg, 440.4 ypg
\nDefense: 22.2 ppg, 322.0 ypg
\nPassing offense: 217.6 ypg
\nPassing defense: 189.5 ypg
\nRushing offense: 222.7 ypg
\nRushing defense: 132.5 ypg
\nTurnover margin: +1
\nKey players: QB DeNarius McGhee (60.9%, 2360 yds, 22 TD, 10 INT), RB Cody Kirk (211-1233, 112.1 ypg, 5.8 ypc, 14 TD), RB Tray Robinson (100-572, 52.0 ypg, 5.7 ypc, 5 TD), WR Elvis Akpla (49-940, 85.5 ypg, 19.2 ypc, 11 TD), K Jason Cunningham (18-25, long 55), DE Brad Daly (10 sacks, 10.5 TFL), LB Jody Owens (5 sacks, 11.5 TFL, 1 INT), DE Caleb Schreibeis (6 sacks, 9 TFL), DT Zack Minter (7 sacks, 9.5 TFL)
\nOther notes: The Bobcats will pour on yards and points, and if they can’t get it in the end zone, Cunningham is a credible threat to put three on the board. They give up some yards defensively, but they’re also very adept at causing loss of yards, which by forcing punts makes up for a great deal of that.<\/p>\n

Jon’s Prediction<\/span>:
\nMontana State 38, New Hampshire 31. If there’s a real difference here, it’s going to be Montana State stopping the New Hampshire running game.<\/p>\n

\n

Stony Brook (9-3) at Sam Houston State (11-0)<\/strong><\/span>
\nBowers Stadium, Huntsville TX, 2pm ET
\nAirs on ESPN GamePlan. Video available via ESPN3. Audio available via WUSB<\/a>. Live Stats available via CSTV<\/a>.
\nSeries: first meeting.<\/p>\n

Stony Brook Seawolves<\/span>
\n\"\"
\nLocation: Stony Brook NY
\nConference: Big South
\nColors: Scarlet, Grey, and Blue
\nPlayoff appearances: 1, 1-0 (2011)
\nCoach: Chuck Priore (6th year, 37-30; overall 75-39 including six years at Trinity CT)
\nKey games: 31-24 loss at FBS Texas-El Paso in OT on 9\/3; 21-20 loss to Brown on 9\/17; 42-0 win over Coastal Carolina on 10\/29; 41-31 win over then #16 Liberty on 11\/19, 31-28 win over Albany in first round on 11\/26
\nOffense: 38.9 ppg, 447.1 ypg
\nDefense: 22.4 ppg, 335.5 ypg
\nPassing offense: 170.0 ypg
\nPassing defense: 241.2 ypg
\nRushing offense: 277.1 ypg
\nRushing defense: 94.2 ypg
\nTurnover margin: +17
\nKey players: QB Kyle Essington (58.6%, 1693 yds, 18 TD, 3 INT), RB Miguel Maysonet (236-1560, 130.0 ypg, 6.6 ypc, 15 TD, 1 TD receiving), RB\/KR Brock Jackolski (201-1332, 111.0 ypg, 6.6 ypc, 15 TD, 25-785 KR, 31.4 ypr, 1 TD; 3 TD receiving), DB Donald Porter (6 INT)
\nOther notes: Two runners with over 1300 yards and 35 scores between them? Almost 300 yards a game running? And although they’re “only” 9-3, two<\/em> of those losses were to FBS teams. They probably can’t get out of the second round, but I wouldn’t want to have to face them if I were a favorite in this field.<\/p>\n

Sam Houston State Bearkats<\/span>
\n\"\"
\nLocation: Huntsville TX
\nConference: Southland
\nColors: Orange and White
\nPlayoff appearances: 5, 3-4 (1986, 1991, 2001, 2004, 2011, plus one NAIA appearance, tying Concordia-Moorhead in the 1964 title game)
\nCoach: Willie Fritz (2nd year, 17-5; overall 153-57-1 including 13 years at Central Missouri and 4 years at Blinn Junior College, winning two NJCAA national championships)
\nKey games:
\nOffense: 39.5 ppg, 409.0 ypg
\nDefense: 12.5 ppg, 259.9 ypg
\nPassing offense: 164.7 ypg
\nPassing defense: 200.9 ypg
\nRushing offense: 244.3 ypg
\nRushing defense: 59.0 ypg
\nTurnover margin: +24
\nKey players: QB Brian Bell (63.3%, 1607 yds, 14 TD, 3 INT), RB Tim Flanders (218-1095, 99.5 ypg, 5.0 ypc, 20 TD; 27-404 receiving, 15.0 ypc, 2 TD), RB Richard Sincere (91-725, 65.9 ypg, 8.0 ypc, 9 TD; 21-394 receiving, 18.8 ypc, 2 TD), DB Dax Swanson (7 INT), K Craig Alaniz (7-7, long 38)
\nOther notes: The Bearkats are currently on a 13-game winning streak, longest in school history. Curiously, the two main running backs are the team’s top two receivers by total yardage, and the team’s longest pass play of the year was a 77-yard connection between Bell and Sincere. Alaniz has been perfect on field goals since replacing Miguel Antonio mid-season. Defensively, the Kats are vulnerable to the pass, but their ridiculous turnover margin blunts that weakness. And forget about running on them.<\/p>\n

Jon’s Prediction<\/span>:
\nSam Houston State 38, Stony Brook 23. The ride ends here for the Seawolves. Statistically, the teams are actually quite similar, but even if one fails to take into account competition level Sam Houston’s just a bit better across the board.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Previews, team capsules, and predictions for the second-round FCS playoff games taking place in the top half of the bracket this week follow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7,6],"tags":[41],"class_list":["post-1407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-division-news-and-notes","category-fcs","tag-fcs"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p185sV-mH","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1407"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1407\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1413,"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1407\/revisions\/1413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jonfmorse.com\/tog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}