Everyone who’s not DIvision I is starting the playoff push today, but this is the final week of the regular season for Division I FCS. Let’s walk through the conferences and take a look at what’s at stake on the final Saturday before Thanksgiving.
Big Sky Conference
One team is in the driver’s seat here, but their task is not a simple one. #20 Southern Utah (7-3) can clinch the outright Big Sky title today with a win, but they’re hosting #24 Northern Arizona (7-3) at 5pm ET, so nothing is assured for the Thunderbirds.
If the Lumberjacks win, however, all hell breaks loose. There will be at least a three-way tie for the conference title, involving both Southern Utah and Northern Arizona as well as the winner of the game between #11 Portland State (8-2) and #18 Eastern Washington (6-4), 5pm at EWU. If #17 Montana (6-4) wins the Brawl of the Wild at Montana State (5-5), they’d be in as well. That’s a 2pm kickoff on ROOT Sports.
Tiebreaker scenarios in the event of a Northern Arizona win: if Portland State wins, they earn the automatic bid. If Eastern Washington and Montana win, Montana would claim the playoff spot; if Eastern Washington and Montana State win, Northern Arizona gets the free pass.
Every team we’ve mentioned so far except Montana State is also still in the at-large discussion should they win and fail to receive the autobid. (Portland State is probably in the playoff field regardless.) One other team is also on the hunt: North Dakota (6-4) would be on the fringe with a win at Cal Poly (4-6) at 9pm.
Big South Conference
The Big South isn’t very interesting today, as everything of relevance has already been settled. The autobid already belongs to #9 Charleston Southern (9-1), who will be 9-2 after they visit Alabama today at 3pm (SEC Network). An at-large bid surely belongs to #4 Coastal Carolina (9-2) despite losing to Liberty (6-5) Thursday night. Nobody else is in the picture, really; Kennesaw State (6-4) visits Presbyterian (1-9) today, but their non-conference schedule was horrid.
Colonial Athletic Association
The CAA is also up for grabs today. Either #7 William & Mary (8-2) will w1n at #14 Richmond (7-3) at noon ET (Comcast Mid-Atlantic) and therefore win the outright title, or there will be a three-way tie. Villanova (7-3) visits #12 James Madison (8-2), also at noon (Comcast Central Atlantic); the winner would be the third team involved. If James Madison and Richmond win, Richmond earns the autobid. If Villanova and Richmond win, the autobid would to to the team finishing highest in the Sagarin ratings, and in those ratings it’s really too close to predict who’ll end up on top come Sunday morning.
William & Mary and James Madison are certainly in the playoffs, autobid or not, regardless of results today. Both Villanova and Richmond would be in with wins, and might even get in even with a loss.
Ivy League
The playoffs aren’t a concern for the Ivies, of course. But the conference title is still in question, and thanks to Harvard’s loss to Penn last week it’s really complicated. The Ivy won’t bother breaking the tie; anyone at 6-1 in conference play will share the title, or of course win it outright if they’re the only one. The three teams currently tied at 5-1 are #19 Harvard (8-1), who visit Yale (6-3) at 2:30pm ET on NBCSN; #21 Dartmouth (8-1), playing host to Princeton (5-4) at noon on ASN; and Pennsylvania (6-3), beneficiaries of the easiest path to a share of the title by virtue of hosting Cornell (1-8) at 1pm.
If all three teams somehow lose, they’ll all share the title as well. If you’re really interested in declaring One True Champion, you’ll have to hope one team loses or just one team wins, and then you can sort it out for yourself easily: Harvard beat Dartmouth, who beat Penn, who beat Harvard.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
The MEAC no longer sends its champion to the playoffs, but the conference title still has importance; the winner plays in the Celebration Bowl against the SWAC champion (noon ET, December 19, ABC). Shooting for that title today is #16 North Carolina A&T (9-1), hosting North Carolina Central (7-3) at 1pm ET. A win would mean the outright title. A loss would result in a tie between the two schools, with an added complication: Bethune-Cookman (8-2) is almost certain to win today as they face Florida A&M (1-9) in the Florida Classic at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, at 2:30pm on ESPN Classic. A&T beat Bethune, but Bethune beat Central, so it’s a transitive tie as well. As a result, the MEAC’s point-based tiebreaker keyed on non-conference performance would eliminate Central, but A&T and Bethune would still be tied. The next step would be Sagarin rating. At present, A&T would earn the Celebration bid, but a loss and a Bethune win might change that.
Teams other than the conference champion are still eligible for at-large selection. A&T might have some hope with a loss. Bethune-Cookman might with a win and a failure to claim the Celebration bid.
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Once again, #6 Illinois State and #2 North Dakota State didn’t play during the regular season, and once again they’re tied atop the MVFC standings heading into the final Saturday. However, the Valley’s situation is actually pretty straightforward.
If NDSU (8-2) wins at home against Missouri State (1-9) at 3:30pm ET on ESPN3, and that’s almost a certainty, they claim the autobid. Even with a loss, the Bison will still get the bid with an Illinois State (8-2) loss at home to South Dakota (5-5) at 1pm on ESPN3.
Both NDSU and Illinois State would have to lose to set up a three-way tie, and that would require #5 South Dakota State (8-2) to win at Western Illinois (5-5), 2pm on ESPN3. The Jackrabbits would claim the autobid in this scenario.
Of course, this is all academic. The Bison, Redbirds, and Bunnies are all getting into the playoffs anyway. #15 Northern Iowa (6-4) will also get in, as long as they win at home today over Southern Illinois (3-7) in a 5pm ESPN3 game.
Northeast Conference
Simple as it can get: 6-3 Saint Francis (PA) visits Duquesne (7-3) at noon ET on ESPN3. The winner is the outright NEC champion, and earns the autobid.
Ohio Valley Conference
They’ve already clinched the autobid, but #1 Jacksonville State (9-1) can win the title outright with a win at home over 3-7 Murray State (2pm ET). Eastern Illinois (6-4) would share the title if the Gamecocks lose and the Panthers win at home over #23 Eastern Kentucky (6-4) at 2pm on ESPN3. The winner of that game is also a good bet for an at-large bid.
Patriot League
Idle this week, #13 Fordham (9-2) is probably in the field. They’ll need an at-large, though, because Colgate (6-4) has already won the autobid. The Red Raiders host 4-6 Bucknell today at 1pm ET. If Colgate loses, Fordham will share the Patriot title, but Colgate holds the tiebreaker.
Pioneer Football League
Dayton (10-0) has already won the automatic bid by virtue of a win over San Diego (9-1). The Flyers visit 4-6 Drake at 2pm ET; San Diego hosts 6-4 Butler at 4pm. A Dayton win or San Diego loss means an outright title for the Flyers; otherwise they’ll be co-champions. San Diego is almost certainly not getting an at-large bid, even at 10-1.
Southern Conference
The two best teams in the conference are facing FBS squads today. #8 Tennessee-Chattanooga won the automatic bid last week by beating #25 The Citadel; the two teams shared the conference title. Chattanooga (8-2) visits Florida State, while The Citadel (7-3) visits South Carolina. The Citadel is on the bubble, as they’ll likely be sitting at 7-4 tomorrow morning.
Southland Conference
For once, the Southland autobid is already settled heading into the final day. #3 McNeese State (9-0) visits 5-5 Lamar at 7pm ET on ESPN3. The Cowboys have already clinched the autobid. Central Arkansas (7-3) could claim a share of the title, but they’ll have to knock off #10 Sam Houston State (7-3) at home tonight, also at 7pm on ESPN3, combined with a McNeese loss.
McNeese is in no matter what, and the Sam Houston-Central Arkansas winner probably is as well. The loser is firmly on the bubble.
Southwestern Athletic Conference
The SWAC doesn’t actually end this week, but they’re also irrelevant to the playoff picture. Alcorn State (6-3) is in the driver’s seat for the East Division title, and just needs to win one of their final two games. Their first chance is today, hosting Alabama A&M (2-7) at 3pm ET. Alabama State (5-5) is already done with conference play, and would be in the picture if Alcorn loses twice; the Hornets play Division II Miles (7-4) in the Turkey Day Classic at 3pm ET. Jackson State (3-6) is also miraculously alive. They need to beat Prairie View A&M (7-2) today, on the road at 2pm. Unlikely, but if they pull that off and Alcorn loses today, Jackson State hosts Alcorn next week with a chance to create a three-way tie.
Out west, Grambling State (8-2) has already clinched a berth in the SWAC Championship Game. They’re idle this week, as is Southern (6-4); they’ll play next week in the annual Bayou Classic.