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NAIA Playoff Field Projection

Nov 14

Posted by Jon Morse in NAIA, Uncategorized | Comments off

The regular season is officially over, and very few teams that were supposed to win today lost. As such, a relatively coherent guess at the NAIA playoff field is possible. The key games today:

#1 Morningside‘s 55-7 win at home over #4 Doane, which doesn’t do anything to either team’s actual playoff fate, but does absolutely secure the top seed for the Mustangs.

#6 Montana Tech‘s 24-17 home win over #10 Montana Western. I project that the loss will drop Montana Western out of the field.

#3 Grand View won 26-14 at #19 William Penn, ending Penn’s playoff hopes.

#16 Benedictine (KS) lost 19-17 at unranked Peru State, ending their own hopes.

#23 Saint Ambrose won 27-7 at home against #20 Robert Morris (IL), and #22 Saint Francis (IL) beat Olivet Nazarene 40-0. The end result of all of that: idle Saint Xavier, ranked #17, wins the MSFA Midwest League title, and will earn a playoff bid; the other three teams are out of luck.

This, then, is my projected top 20 in the final NAIA poll:

  1. Morningside (9-2, GPAC autobid)
  2. Baker (10-1, HAAC South autobid)
  3. Grand View (9-2, HAAC North autobid)
  4. Saint Francis (IN) (9-0, MSFA Mideast autobid)
  5. Montana Tech (9-1, Frontier autobid)
  6. Marian (IN) (8-2, at-large #1)
  7. Southern Oregon (8-2, at-large #2)
  8. Doane (9-1, at-large #3)
  9. Tabor (10-1, KCAC autobid)
  10. Kansas Wesleyan (9-1, at-large #4)
  11. Campbellsville (7-3, MSC East autobid)
  12. Reinhardt (8-2, at-large #5)
  13. Lindsey Wilson (8-2, at-large #6)
  14. Montana Western (7-3, no bid)
  15. Saint Xavier (7-3, MSFA Midwest autobid)
  16. Dakota Wesleyan (9-2, no bid)
  17. Point (8-2, SUN autobid)
  18. Dickinson State (8-2, NSAA autobid)
  19. Saint Ambrose (8-2, no bid)
  20. Saint Francis (IL) (8-3, no bid)

The placement of the teams may differ by a spot or two tomorrow, but ultimately the order itself doesn’t matter so much as where they are. Two conferences will forfeit autobids: The CSFL, where I project 6-3 Arizona Christian, idle today, will only get up to #21, and the MSC East division, where currently unranked Georgetown (KY) will probably only get up to #22 at best. If either of those two teams sneak into the top 20, that would cost first Lindsey Wilson and then Reinhardt their playoff berths, but for that to happen the voters would have to either severely devalue Saint Francis (IL) and/or Saint Ambrose’s wins, or punish Montana Western far too harshly for a one-touchdown loss to a top-5 team.

We’ll see where things end up tomorrow.

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NAIA: Final Week Preview

Nov 13

Posted by Jon Morse in NAIA | Comments off

We’re not going to bother with Division III here, because (a) time and (b) honestly, you should just go to d3football.com and rely on a team of dedicated experts. So we’ll just jump straight to the NAIA. And the first thing we have to do to talk about the NAIA’s final week is present the top 25 poll, because everything hinges on it.

  1. Morningside (9-1)
  2. Baker (9-1)
  3. Grand View (9-1)
  4. Doane (9-0)
  5. Saint Francis (IN) (8-0)
  6. Montana Tech (8-1)
  7. Marian (IN) (7-2)
  8. Southern Oregon (7-2)
  9. Tabor (9-1)
  10. Montana Western (7-2)
  11. Kansas Wesleyan (9-1)
  12. Campbellsville (8-2)
  13. Reinhardt (8-1)
  14. Lindsey Wilson (7-2)
  15. Dakota Wesleyan (8-2)
  16. Benedictine (KS) (7-3)
  17. Saint Xavier (7-3)
  18. Point (7-2)
  19. William Penn (7-3)
  20. Robert Morris (IL) (6-3)
  21. Dickinson State (8-2)
  22. Saint Francis (IL) (7-3)
  23. Saint Ambrose (7-3)
  24. Arizona Christian (6-3)
  25. Faulkner (6-3)

If the playoffs started this week, the field would be the top 15 teams plus Point, as the playoff field consists of all conference champions (including divisional champions in the HAAC, MSC, and MSFA) in the top 20, plus however many at-large teams are required to get to 16 teams. The NAIA poll determines everything.

But they don’t start this week, so let’s see what Saturday has to offer in terms of shaking things up.

Central States Football League

Arizona Christian is the only team in the league with even a remote chance to get into the playoffs. The Firestorm ran the table to win the conference title, and they’re idle this week. That’s good, insofar as it means they can’t lose Saturday. It’s bad because they’re ranked 24th, and therefore not only need four teams immediately ahead of them to lose but also not get leapfrogged. It’s possible, but unlikely.

Frontier Conference

Montana Tech has clinched a share of the conference title, and is probably secure no matter what happens Saturday. They host Montana Western, who probably cannot survive a loss, in a huge game at 2pm ET. Southern Oregon is also probably safe, although less so than Tech. The defending NAIA champion Raiders visit Eastern Oregon (4-6) at 3pm. Both Western and Southern are in position to share the Frontier title, sitting a game back of Tech. We’re mostly avoiding any discussion of irrelevant games this week, but there are a couple which need to be mentioned. The first: Carroll (MT), the conference’s traditional power, will miss the playoffs for only the second time this century. The Saints are only 4-5, and visit 3-7 College of Idaho at 2pm.

Great Plains Athletic Conference

Two GPAC teams are absolutely assured of a berth in the playoffs: top-ranked Morningside and 4th-ranked (and still unbeaten) Doane. They face one another in one of the biggest regular-season games of the NAIA season at 2pm ET Saturday, the winner claiming the outright GPAC title. It’s hard to envision Doane not jumping all the way to the top spot with a win given the magnitude of the game. Dakota Wesleyan is the last team in right now, but a win over Dordt (2-8) would alleviate those concerns entirely, as there will be attrition ahead of them in the poll.

Heart of America Athletic Conference

This is the most complicated conference in the NAIA. The easy part: Baker is securely in the playoff field, and with a win on the road at Evangel (3-7) they’ll clinch the South Division title outright. That’s a 2:30pm ET kickoff. Should they lose, the door is open for two teams to share the title, but neither will be making an appearance in the post-season. Missouri Valley (6-4) visits MidAmerica Nazarene (5-5) at 2pm, and the winner would share the division title with Baker should the Wildcats lose (though Baker still holds the tiebreaker for the automatic bid). It’s worth noting that Valley is ending a four-year playoff streak, while this is only Nazarene’s second failure to make the field in the last nine years.

In the North Division, Grand View has already won a share of the title in their first year in the HAAC. The conference’s other new member, William Penn, could stake their own claim Saturday; Grand View visits Penn at noon ET (on ESPN3). Grand View is in the field no matter what, but a Penn win would be huge; it would secure Penn’s place in the field. Also hoping to sneak in is Benedictine (KS), who will visit Peru State (6-4) at 2pm. The Ravens are currently the first team out, but a win would probably push them in. If Penn wins, Benedictine would also share the division crown with a win.

Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference

It hasn’t been a wonderful year for the KCAC, but the conference season did manage to separate a couple of teams from the pack, and both should be securely in the playoffs with easy Saturdays this week. Tabor, who already holds a share of the conference title, hosts 3-6 Bethel (KS) and Kansas Wesleyan hosts 3-7 Saint Mary (KS), both games at 2:30pm ET. Wesleyan would share the title with a win and a Tabor loss, but that’s really unlikely. Sterling (6-3) is receiving votes, but there’s really no way they can jump the 12 spots they’d need to with a win over 3-7 Southwestern (KS).

Mid-South Conference

Campbellsville has already clinched a playoff bid, as they’re the outright West Division champions and they’re idle this week. The conference is heavily weighted to the west this year; Reinhardt and Lindsey Wilson are in the field at present, both also from the west. Neither can afford a loss, however. Reinhardt hosts 4-6 Bethel (TN) at noon ET, while Lindsey Wilson — who spent all of October as the #1 team in the NAIA before losing to Reinhardt — hosts 3-7 Cumberland (TN) at 2:30. Faulkner is ranked, but a home win over 1-8 Union (KY) at 2:30 is not going to convince anyone to move them up ten-plus spots on their ballot. They’re out after making two straight appearances.

In the East, there will probably be no playoff participant. 5-4 Georgetown (KY) visits Pikeville (4-6) at 1:30, and would win the East outright with a win; if they lose, they’ll share the title with Pikeville and 7-3 Cumberlands (KY), who is idle this week. But Georgetown would need a lot of help to move up into the top 20 and claim the automatic playoff bid. If they do, the Tigers — who have made 20 playoff appearances since 1987 — will miraculously extend their current playoff streak to seven years.

Mid-States Football Association

The Mid-States also gets two potential automatic bids. In the Mideast League, unbeaten Saint Francis (IN) visits 0-9 Missouri Baptist at 2pm ET, and it’s hard to imagine a more certain win on the schedule. The Cougars will clinch the outright Mideast League crown and secure their playoff bid. Marian hosts Siena Heights (4-5) at 1pm; they might survive a loss, but shouldn’t depend on it. Marian would share the title with a win and a Saint Francis loss, but the Cougars would still win the tiebreaker.

In the Midwest League, nobody is secure at all. Saint Xavier might slide up a couple of spots to safety simply by sitting at home and doing nothing, but that’s not assured. They have a share of the conference title, but that’s also not good enough — because if Robert Morris wins on the road at Saint Ambrose (2pm), there will be a tie. If Saint Francis (IL) also wins a 2pm game at home over Olivet Nazarene (3-7), it would be a three-way tie, and we’ll be honest: we have no idea which team gets the “automatic” bid in that scenario.

One of these three teams will be in the top 20 regardless, and therefore one of them will earn the “automatic” playoff bid. Saint Ambrose can’t win the league title, so they’ll have to win and hope they jump about 8 spots to get in; that’s unlikely.

North Star Athletic Association

With the exception of the utterly pointless non-conference game between Waldorf (2-7) and Trinity Bible (1-8), the NSAA is done for the year. Dickinson State is the conference champion, and would earn a playoff bid if they can move up one more spot in the rankings while being idle. The situation in the MSFA makes that more difficult that it would be otherwise, as the winner of that Robert Morris-Saint Ambrose game is almost certain to jump Dickinson.

The Sun Conference

Point, who has already won the outright Sun title, plays a non-conference game against 1-8 Concordia (AL) at 6pm ET. It’s the last game of the NAIA regular season, and naturally it’s marginally relevant to the entire playoff picture. Point is in the playoffs as long as they avoid the upset.

 

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NAIA: Final Week 2013

Nov 15

Posted by Jon Morse in NAIA | Comments off

We wrap up this week’s spurt of posts with the NAIA, which is always a fun time because of the simple method they use to determine the playoff participants. The top 16 teams in the final poll get in, with one exception: if a team wins its conference’s autobid and is ranked 17-20, they steal a spot from the top 16. If an autobid falls outside the top 20, it simply vanishes into thin air. For what seems like a decade, poor William Penn has been the victim of this setup, repeatedly finishing 15th or 16th in the final poll only to lose a playoff spot to a conference champion ranked 17th-20th. Luckily, that’s not going to happen this year. Not only does there appear to be no serious threat of a stolen spot, but William Penn has solved the problem themselves by stumbling through a 4-6 season to date.

Anyway, we’ll get right to the breakdowns after the jump.

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NAIA: Week Six Recap.

Oct 12

Posted by Jon Morse in Division News and Notes, NAIA | Comments off

NAIA Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 194 kb)

Apologies:
As I’d warned earlier in the week, this week wasn’t going to go swimmingly. And so here we are, with an NAIA recap which consists solely of the bare minimum information that I mine first thing Sunday morning. I could have discussed #5 William Penn’s 19-8 win over Saint Francis (IL), or #4 Morningside’s 28-3 victory at #18 Doane, or Southern Oregon’s 68-22 destruction of #24 Eastern Oregon; that these were the three most interesting games of the week should make you realize you’re not missing much this week.

And with that, on with the bare bones:
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NAIA: Week Five Recap.

Oct 5

Posted by Jon Morse in Division News and Notes, NAIA | Comments off

NAIA Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 191 kb)

Before We Begin:
Because of the August murder of Tabor DL Brandon Brown, which two former McPherson players have been charged in connection with, the October 20 game between the two teams has been cancelled in honor of Brown’s memory.  Of course, the fact that current players on both teams are potential witnesses in the pending trial, and the potential for hostilities in connection with the crime, certainly play a role here as well.  The game is still listed in the spreadsheet as uploaded currently, but will be noted as cancelled in future uploads.

NAIA Game of the Week:
One would have been forgiven for assuming this week’s contest at Saint Xavier would be yet another minor speed bump on the way to the their showdown with Marian on November 3.  Saint Xavier has literally but unbeatable by anyone other than the Knights since the 2011 campaign began, after all.  And this was homecoming; perhaps scheduling the other Cougars from Saint Francis (IL) wasn’t the brightest idea, but in the MSFA it’s sometimes hard to find a homecoming opponent who isn’t ranked.
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NAIA: Week Four Recap.

Sep 28

Posted by Jon Morse in Division News and Notes, NAIA | Comments off

NAIA Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 182 kb)

NAIA Game of the Week:
It wasn’t a thriller by any stretch of the imagination, but it was a matchup of unbeaten top ten teams.  #5 Missouri Valley paid a visit to #9 Baker with a place on the front row of the HAAC race at stake.

The Vikings got off to a good start, holding Baker to a single first down on their opening drive and then blocking the ensuing punt.  Three plays later, Bruce Reyes tossed a 28-yard touchdown pass to Jacoby Bellard to give Missouri Valley an early lead.  On the next drive, it was the Viking defense which rose to the occasion, as Danny Reyes sacked Jake Morse (no relation) and forced a fumble.  Missouri Valley kept the ball on the ground, grinding yards before LaNorris Dukes scored on a three-yard run to put the Vikings up 14-0.  Baker did manage a field goal midway through the second quarter, but Missouri Valley held the Wildcats to 80 yards of total offense in the first half; with 37 seconds to go before intermission, Taylor Beasley (subbing for Reyes, who was injured on the Vikings’ second drive) hit Bellard for a 25-yard score to give the Vikings a 21-3 halftime advantage.

Their first two possessions of the second half put the game away for Missouri Valley.  Fabian Miramontes hit a 30-yard field goal, and Del’von Franklin scored on a one-yard run to make it 31-3.  Baker tried to rally in the fourth quarter, scoring twice in the first eight minutes of the period on a one-yard Dillon Baxter run and a 12-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Bolton from Sam Vossen, who’d replaced the ineffective Morse.  After that, however, the Wildcats were unable to chip away at the lead any further, and the Vikings held on for a 31-17 conquest.  Four turnovers were the downfall for Baker, as they led to the margin of victory.

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NAIA: Week Three Recap.

Sep 20

Posted by Jon Morse in Division News and Notes, NAIA | Comments off

The Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 151 kb)

Short and Sweet: Despite four games pitting ranked teams against one another, there was not a single upset in the top 25 this week, making for a pretty boring recap.  So, we’ll just get on with it, in somewhat abbreviated form.

NAIA Game of the Week:
Montana-Western hosted #20 Montana Tech last Saturday in Dillon in what wasn’t expected to be too exciting a contest.  Indeed, Tech led 17-7 going into the fourth quarter before Western popped off for ten points in a little over six minutes to pull even.  The teams traded touchdowns in the first overtime before Joe Mitzel picked off Western’s Jeff Logan in the second overtime; on the ensuing possession, Nick Baker hit James Roberts from five yards out to seal the win for the Orediggers.

It Only Took Three Weeks:
Wayland Baptist, most well-known for its tenure in the 70s as home of one of the nation’s best women’s basketball programs (and I do not mean in the NAIA, I mean period), picked up their first win ever in football last weekend with a 27-23 win at home over D-III Howard Payne.

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NAIA: Week Two Recap.

Sep 13

Posted by Jon Morse in Division News and Notes, NAIA | Comments off

NAIA Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 149kb)

NAIA Game of the Week:
There were five games this last weekend in which both teams were ranked, all of which would have been good candidates for Game of the Week five days ago.  Unfortunately, four of them were blowouts.  Fortunately, on the other hand, we have the benefit of 20/10 hindsight here at Those Other Guys, and as a result we can zoom in on the one that wasn’t.

Then-#20 Saint Ambrose paid a visit to then-#6 Saint Francis (IN) on Saturday for a cross-divisional (read: non-conference) Mid-States Football Association matchup.  Oddly, there’s not a great deal to say about the contest.  Each team scored a rushing touchdown on a long drive in the first quarter; each team scored through the air on lightning-quick drives in the fourth and added two-point conversions.  In between, Saint Ambrose turned the ball over twice on lost fumbles (and a third time after Saint Francis scored their second touchdown); Saint Francis turned it over twice on interceptions (and a third time on their final possession with 11 seconds to go).  Saint Ambrose rushed 47 times for 157 yards; Saint Francis 47 times for 176.  Saint Ambrose threw 24 times, completing 12 for 149 yards; Saint Francis 25 times with 16 completions for 207, but the three interceptions balanced out their advantage.

No, there was one main difference between the two squads in this game, and it decided the strategy for the entire contest.  Midway through the first quarter, Saint Francis scored on a nine-yard Antoin Campbell run to take a 6-0 lead, but Emerson Weber missed the extra point.  Quinn Treiber did not miss the point after when Cole Kelly scored on a two-yard plunge later in the first, and Saint Ambrose took a 7-6 lead.  Halfway through the fourth quarter, the scoreboard finally changed again when Wes Hunsucker — the third quarterback utilized by Saint Francis on the afternoon — hit Austin Coleman for a 70-yard touchdown strike.  The two-point conversion, called for as a result of the prior missed point after, was successful and Saint Francis found themselves with a 14-7 lead.

Then things got hairy.

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NAIA: Week One (Two) Recap.

Sep 6

Posted by Jon Morse in NAIA | Comments off

The Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 147kb)

Quick Note: Although this is technically week two for the NAIA, as they started a week earlier, we’re treating it as week one (with last week as week zero) just for consistency’s sake with the other divisions.  If you care, you can add a “1” mentally.

Saturday’s NAIA Game of the Week:
This game looked like it was going to be an ugly morass.  Six minutes into the third quarter, Montana Tech led 7-6.  Eastern Oregon had managed only 138 yards of offense and had punted seven times.  When the Mountaineers took over after an Oredigger punt at their own 1 and then immediately gave up a safety to fall behind 9-6, one might have been forgiven for throwing one’s hands up and heading back out to the tailgate.

But then, on the third play following the free kick Nathan Rudder intercepted Nick Baker and returned the ball to the Tech 4-yard line.  Four plays later, Eastern Oregon finally had the lead back, but it was then Tech’s turn to unload.  Pat Hansen scored on runs of 3 and 27 yards in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter to put the Orediggers up 23-13.

That’s when coach Tim Camp pulled the ripcord.  He benched Tyler Pine, who’d gone 13-22 for 108 yards through the first 50 minutes, and inserted sophomore Jason Simonis.  All he did was lob two touchdown passes, the second with only forty seconds remaining in the game, to regain the lead and seal a 26-23 win.

One might fear for the Mountaineers going forward based just the score; the circumstances of the game, however, indicate that perhaps EOU can actually exceed expectations if a change at quarterback in dire straits during their opener actually sparks the team to life.

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Roundup, 8/31/12.

Aug 31

Posted by Jon Morse in Division II, Division III, FCS, NAIA | Comments off

TOG Game of the Night: There was another big game in Division II we could have selected (#6 Colorado State-Pueblo 44, #24 West Texas A&M 34), but we’re going with the showdown in California, Pennsylvania. CalPA’s Peter Lalich threw for 275 an four scores last night, but with time running out the 17th-ranked Hillsdale Chargers found themselves with a first down at the Cal five yard line. The Vulcan defense stiffened, though, and after two incompletions and a four-yard run the Chargers were facing fourth-and-goal from the one yard line with time for one last play. Anthony Mifsud tried to lob a pass into the end zone, but Vulcan DB Rontez Miles batted it away as the gun sounded, preserving a 30-22 win for California.

More goodies after the jump:

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