D-III: Week Six Recap.

D-III Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 433 kb)

D-III Game of the Week:
There can be only one option here. Unranked and unbeaten Concordia-Moorhead traveled to #10 Bethel (MN) to sort out their differences, and settled into a brisk defensive struggle which found the Cobbers leading 14-7 late in the fourth quarter.  Concordia had scored at the end of the first half on a one-yard run by Brent Baune on fourth-and-goal.  Bethel later tied the score on a one-yard Jesse Phenow run, but the Cobbers regained the lead with nine minutes to play on a 40-yard hookup from Griffin Neal to Chris Gilson. Bethel had the ball late and drove desperately, but were facing third-and-10 from the Concordia 17 with only one second remaining.  Dropping back to try and connect on one final pass, Bethel QB Erik Peterson was stripped of the ball, and Concordia recovered the fumble and ran it back the other way for the win…

…except for one small problem. When the ball came loose, Concordia players — thinking it had been an imcomplete pass, not a fumble — crossed the sideline into the field of play to begin celebrating. Because they did so before the play was blown dead, a live-ball unsportsmanlike conduct penalty was called, which meant that Bethel not only retained possession, but got the yardage from the original line of scrimmage and an untimed down. From the nine, Peterson connected with Jay Hilbrands on a fade in the end zone, and Bethel trailed 14-13.

Royals’ coach Steve Johnson decided to take advantage of the chaos and the shocked frustration of the Cobber players and opted to go for two to win the game outright rather than settling for overtime. Peterson hit Mitch Hallstrom on a swing pass to the outside, and Hallstrom angled into the end zone for the conversion and the stunning victory.

It was a heartbreaker for the Cobbers, who never trailed in the game until after time had already expired, and who learned a pretty severe lesson in discipline. The loss cost Concordia an almost certain move into the top 25, a continued chance at an unbeaten season, and — if Bethel can upset Saint Thomas in what’s likely to be this week’s game of the week, an outcome which is certainly possible — any shot at all of capturing this year’s MIAC title, which means they probably cost themselves a playoff berth in the process.  Bethel, meanwhile, heads to Saint Thomas feeling like they may be on a course with destiny.
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D-II: Week Six Recap.

D-II Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 309 kb)

D-II Games of the Week:
Due to a veterinary emergency which ate my day, this is going to be very brief (for me, anyway).  Further, taking care of the poor thing over the next few days is going to result in the same situation for the D-III and NAIA recaps. Apologies for giving things short shrift this week.
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FCS: Week Six Recap.

FBS Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 340 kb)
FCS Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 308 kb)

FCS Game of the Week:
This is what an actual defensive battle looks like.  #12 Towson visited #5 James Madison, and the two best defenses in the CAA squared off for an epic showdown.

Early on, only two Cameron Starke field goals marred the scoreboard as the Dukes took a 6-0 lead.  D.J. Stoven hit from 40 with 11 seconds to go in the first half to cut the lead to 6-3. The third quarter was scoreless before Towson finally grabbed the lead with just 3:21 to play on a 7-yard Grant Enders TD run.  That drive went 92 yards and ate up 7:24 as a tiring Dukes defense finally started allowing some space; even at that, the drive turned on a fourth-and-one at Towson’s own 18. Rob Ambrose rolled the dice and called for a QB sneak, and Enders picked up the first down.

But James Madison came back.  In under two minutes, Justin Thorpe had marched the Dukes downfield, and with 1:24 to go he scored on a nine-yard run to regain the lead.  Dean Marlowe then picked off an Enders pass to kill Towson’s hope for a last-minute miracle, and the Dukes walked off with a 13-10 win.

This wasn’t a case of ineffective offense.  Terrance West had 112 yards rushing for Towson, and Enders wasn’t horribly ineffective passing the ball, going 20-32 for 147; he was picked off twice, and both were pretty good plays on the part of the JMU defense.  For the Dukes, Dae’Quan Scott had 95 yards on the ground, and Thorpe was 11-19 for 116 without turning the ball over.  The key to the game was that both defenses forced long yardage on third down, and that resulted in Towson only managing 5-16 on conversions, while the Dukes were only 2-12.

The win leaves Madison in charge of the CAA race, since co-leaders Old Dominion are ineligible for the title after announcing their departure to Conference USA.
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NAIA: Week Five Recap.

NAIA Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 191 kb)

Before We Begin:
Because of the August murder of Tabor DL Brandon Brown, which two former McPherson players have been charged in connection with, the October 20 game between the two teams has been cancelled in honor of Brown’s memory.  Of course, the fact that current players on both teams are potential witnesses in the pending trial, and the potential for hostilities in connection with the crime, certainly play a role here as well.  The game is still listed in the spreadsheet as uploaded currently, but will be noted as cancelled in future uploads.

NAIA Game of the Week:
One would have been forgiven for assuming this week’s contest at Saint Xavier would be yet another minor speed bump on the way to the their showdown with Marian on November 3.  Saint Xavier has literally but unbeatable by anyone other than the Knights since the 2011 campaign began, after all.  And this was homecoming; perhaps scheduling the other Cougars from Saint Francis (IL) wasn’t the brightest idea, but in the MSFA it’s sometimes hard to find a homecoming opponent who isn’t ranked.
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D-III: Week Five Recap.

D-III Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 428 kb)

D-III Games of the Week:
There was one huge game of massive import on Saturday, but three other top-20 teams wandered headlong into danger and got more than they bargained for.  (Well, if we’re being honest, four did, but one got blown out so they just don’t belong in this section, do they?)

In Platteville, #4 Wisconsin-Whitewater and #13 Wisconsin-Platteville clashed in the only meeting between ranked teams this week.  The Warhawks were in deep, deep trouble early as they fell behind 14-0 midway through the first quarter on two John Kelly touchdown passes, on a short toss to Trevor Whitehead and a 78-yard strike to Aaron Loferski.  The last time Whitewater had been down by 14 was in the 2008 Stagg Bowl, which just happened to be the last game they lost before being upset by Buffalo State two weeks ago.  It would be another 11 minutes before the scoreboard changed, but after Kelly went down with an injury, Whitewater would score ten points in four minutes on a 28-yard Eric Kindler field goal (set up by a Mykaell Bratchett interception off Pioneer backup QB Bryce Corrigan) and a 3-yard pass from Lee Brekke to Derric Junakin to pull within 14-10 at the half (again set up by a Corrigan miscue as Andrew Keister picked him off).
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D-II: Week Five Recap.

D-II Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 306 kb)

A Quick Mea Culpa:
In yesterday’s FCS recap, I said all the unbeatens were in the grid; I completely forgot about 5-0 Alabama A&M, and for that I offer my apologies to the Bulldogs for the oversight.

D-II Games of the Week:
We’re being brief here, because Other Stuff is getting in my way.

Ferris State committed four turnovers on the day, but the truly deadly one was on their own 28 late in the fourth quarter.  It led to a 13-yard pass to Tim Hogue from Jonathan Jennings for a Saginaw Valley State score which happened to tie the game at 24.  The soul-crushing defeat was sealed for the Bulldogs when freshman QB Jason Vander Laan was sacked on fourth-and-20 in overtime after Saginaw had scored on their possession.
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FCS: Week Five Recap.

FBS Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 337 kb)
FCS Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 305 kb)

FCS Game of the Week:
Still struggling through the effect of off-season problems, the reeling #21 Montana Grizzlies wandered into Cheney to take on #7 Eastern Washington.  The first half was pretty balanced; each team found the end zone once in the first quarter before the Eagles went up early in the second on a 36-yard strike from redshirt freshman Vernon Adams to Brandon Kaufman.  (Adams took over the starting duties from SMU transfer Kyle Padron last week at Weber State, although coach Beau Baldwin asserts either quarterback might start any given game depending on the opposition.)  The teams traded field goals before halftime, and the Eagles took a 17-10 lead into intermission.

The third quarter was all Montana, scoring on touchdown runs from Tren McKinney and Jordan Canada; a 25-yard Chris Lider field goal midway through the fourth handed the Grizzlies a 26-17 lead, and things looked awfully secure when Montana recovered an Eagle fumble on the ensuing drive.

The Grizzlies weren’t able to move the chains, though, and Eastern Washington took over.  With 2:19 to go, Adams found Kaufman again from 30 yards out to bring the Eagles within two.  They then recovered an onside kick, and with only 53 seconds left on the clock Adams again hit paydirt, connecting with Ashton Clark on a 20-yard score; they went for two and got it, going up 32-26.  Montana was unable to return the favor in the time they had left, and suddenly Montana found themselves 2-3, 0-2 in conference play, and on Monday out of the polls for the first time since 1998.
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Computer Rankings, Margin of Victory, and Fairness.

I am not a mathemetician.

However, after 20 years of debates and reading to understand how computer ranking systems work, and after hearing all the arguments about how margin of victory is either vitally important (“a 37-10 win isn’t the same as a 28-27 win!”) or totally unfair (“you’re encouraging poor sportsmanship and running up the score!”)… I think I have finally hit on it.

Bill James came up with a method of determining when, precisely, a basketball game was truly “over” based on the lead held by the winning team compared to the time remaining in the game.  Baseball has similar methods based on outs remaining to the trailing team vs odds of the leading team adding to their advantage; it’s a completely different paradigm, but the core idea is the same.  We have oodles of data we can mine, and the question we need to answer is simple:

At what point, mathematically, can a football game be said to be over with some agreed-upon level of certainty?

Podunk State beat Big City Tech 52-20?  Well, at some point during that game, depending on how the scoring went, we can be reasonably assured that Podunk State was essentially certain to win, mathematically.  Maybe it wasn’t until seven minutes remained, and Podunk State extended a 31-20 lead to 48-20 by scoring a touchdown, then recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to score again.  Maybe it was with five minutes to go in the second quarter, when they went up 52-0 and put in the scrubs.  Maybe it was somewhere in the third quarter.  The point is, this right here is the thing.  It doesn’t matter how badly you beat the opponent in terms of the final score; what matters is when did you reach the point at which victory was certain?

As an aside, this value can change if you screw up and let a team get back into the game once you’ve already triggered it.  Winning 52-0 at halftime, and then suddenly you find yourself leading 52-45 with six minutes left?  Reset, buddy.  The other team actually has gotten back in the contest, and has erased your certainty.

Anyway, once we’ve come up with a formula to compare lead vs time and determine the “this game is over” curve, then any given game can be assigned a value based on how much time remained in the game.  That value can then be safely used by computer ranking systems to assign weight to “margin of victory” without promoting unsportsmanlike humiliation of another team just to earn style points.  The differences between computer models would largely rest on how much weight they choose to give the new MoV component and in how the MoV component interacts with the strength of the opponent.  (Ultimately, the best result would be for each game to have a score based on both components, so that the value of one win could simply be compared to the value of another win to see which was more impressive, at least within that system.  Systems aren’t going to agree all the time, of course, but that’s what makes life fun.)

Now, it might change the way some teams operate early in a game, as they might go all-0ut to try and put a game away in the second quarter rather than deciding to hold steady and put it away in the third, but I don’t actually see this as a big problem (especially in an environment where teams are currently plodding around aimlessly in the first half and going to the locker room losing to teams from lower levels anyway).  But here’s the secondary benefit: once a coach is sure a game’s in the bag, and knows that they’ve received all the benefit they’re going to get from having won the game, the starters are coming off the field.  No coach will ever risk starter injury in such a situation ever again, because people are going to know: This game was over, coach, and you opted to keep running it up.

Math wonks: get on this.  Figure it out, and we can finally start mathematically distinguishing a team which wins in dominating fashion from a team which squeaks by every week.

NAIA: Week Four Recap.

NAIA Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 182 kb)

NAIA Game of the Week:
It wasn’t a thriller by any stretch of the imagination, but it was a matchup of unbeaten top ten teams.  #5 Missouri Valley paid a visit to #9 Baker with a place on the front row of the HAAC race at stake.

The Vikings got off to a good start, holding Baker to a single first down on their opening drive and then blocking the ensuing punt.  Three plays later, Bruce Reyes tossed a 28-yard touchdown pass to Jacoby Bellard to give Missouri Valley an early lead.  On the next drive, it was the Viking defense which rose to the occasion, as Danny Reyes sacked Jake Morse (no relation) and forced a fumble.  Missouri Valley kept the ball on the ground, grinding yards before LaNorris Dukes scored on a three-yard run to put the Vikings up 14-0.  Baker did manage a field goal midway through the second quarter, but Missouri Valley held the Wildcats to 80 yards of total offense in the first half; with 37 seconds to go before intermission, Taylor Beasley (subbing for Reyes, who was injured on the Vikings’ second drive) hit Bellard for a 25-yard score to give the Vikings a 21-3 halftime advantage.

Their first two possessions of the second half put the game away for Missouri Valley.  Fabian Miramontes hit a 30-yard field goal, and Del’von Franklin scored on a one-yard run to make it 31-3.  Baker tried to rally in the fourth quarter, scoring twice in the first eight minutes of the period on a one-yard Dillon Baxter run and a 12-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Bolton from Sam Vossen, who’d replaced the ineffective Morse.  After that, however, the Wildcats were unable to chip away at the lead any further, and the Vikings held on for a 31-17 conquest.  Four turnovers were the downfall for Baker, as they led to the margin of victory.

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D-III: Week Four Recap.

D-III Spreadsheet: (Excel2003, 404 kb)

Division III Game of the Week:
The ridiculous deathmarch being undertaken by Wesley (DE) continued this week with a visit to Louisiana College. The Wolverines, “blessed” with independence, have opted for a brutal schedule which has already seen them take on rivals Salisbury and Mary Hardin-Baylor, with dates against Birmingham-Southern and Huntingdon still to come. You may notice that all four of those teams, plus Louisiana, have something in common when you check the grid down below.

After the Wildcats took a 3-0 lead early in the first quarter on an Adan Olivares field goal, the teams traded pairs of touchdowns in the second. Early in the third, Louisiana’s Jamie Bunting was picked off at the goal line by Leon Jones, who returned the ball to the 19. However, an illegal block penalty brought the ball back to the six; after a rush for no gain, a false start pushed the Wolverines back to the three. Justin Sottilare dumped a pass off to Steve Koudoussou, but he was trapped at the goal line and forced back for a safety. The comedy continued over the next couple of drives; a 22-yard Olivares field goal attempt was blocked and returned to midfield, but just a few plays later Sottilare was intercepted. That resulted in a 25-yarder from Olivares to give Louisiana a 22-14 lead.

On the Wolverines’ first possession of the fourth quarter, they erased the lead. Sottilare connected with Matt Barile for a 13-yard score, and then found Koudossou in the end zone for the two-point conversion. The teams traded punts, leaving the Wildcats with the ball near midfield with 3:42 to go. They stuck to the ground, including a 4th-and-1 conversion just inside Wesley territory, but on 2nd and 10 immediate after that, needing to get into field goal range with just over a minute remaining, Bunting was intercepted by Luke Maginnis. Maginnis fumbled at the end of his return, but Wesley’s Dwayne Glass managed to recover at the Louisiana 39. A few quick plays later and the Wolverines were on the 14 with just a second to go; Dan Tryon hit a 31-yarder, and Wesley had escaped with a comeback road victory.

The end result was that Wesley stayed put at #6, while the Wildcats, despite the loss, moved into the top 25 at #22. Their stay should last at least three weeks, at which point they’re going to have to deal with Mary Hardin-Baylor themselves.
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