Here’s the first part of the NAIA first round playoff preview, featuring the teams in the top half of the bracket.
Note that what you would expect to be seed numbers are merely final regular-season poll rankings, as the NAIA doesn’t really seed, and all rounds of the playoffs are scheduled ad hoc.
13 Bethel (TN) (8-2) at 5 Saint Xavier (10-1)
Bruce R. Deaton Memorial Field, Chicago IL, 2pm ET
Video available via Livestream. Audio available via WEIO and WXAV. Live Stats available via DakStats.
Series: Saint Xavier leads 2-0 (last: 2010, 49-32 SXU at Bethel)
Bethel Wildcats
Location: Jackson TN
Conference: Mid-South (West)
Colors: Purple and Gold
Playoff appearances: 3, 2-2 (2006, 2007, 2011)
Coach: Dino Kaklis (10th year, 60-45)
Key games: 26-21 win over Wisconsin-Eau Claire 9/3; 70-26 loss to North Central 9/10; 35-28 win at then #15 Cumberlands on 9/24; 36-34 loss at then #17 Cumberland on 10/22
Offense: 36.0 ppg, 376.3 ypg
Defense: 27.6 ppg, 391.2 ypg
Passing offense: 174.3 ypg
Passing defense: 212.9 ypg
Rushing offense: 202.0 ypg
Rushing defense: 178.3 ypg
Turnover margin: +11
Key players: QB Wil Masoud (62.7%, 1616 yds, 13 TD, 5 INT), RB Cordarious Mann (191-983, 98.3 ypg, 9 TD)
Other notes: Bethel eased their way into the playoffs, but it’s going to be a short ride. They give up more yards than they gain, and that wasn’t against playoff-caliber teams.
Saint Xavier Cougars
Location: Chicago IL
Conference: Mid-States (Midwest League)
Colors: Scarlet and Grey
Playoff appearances: 7, 7-6 (2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Coach: Mike Feminis (13th year, 112-41)
Key games: 34-30 win at then #24 Saint Francis (IL) on 9/10; 42-31 win at then #2 Saint Francis (IN) on 10/1; 27-9 loss at then #2 Marian on 11/5
Offense: 48.4 ppg, 486.4 ypg
Defense: 19.6 ppg, 251.5 ypg
Passing offense: 341.6 ypg
Passing defense: 158.0 ypg
Rushing offense: 144.7 ypg
Rushing defense: 93.5 ypg
Turnover margin: +16
Key players: QB Jimmy Coy (68.5%, 3127 yds, 31 TD, 9 INT), RB Nick Pesek (132-662, 60.2 ypg, 9 TD), WR Shane Zackery (70-865, 86.5 ypg, 13 TD), WR Corey Wennmache (46-791, 71.8 ypg, 17.2 ypc, 9 TD), K Tom Lynch (16-21, long 50), DE Michael Prosser (8.5 sacks, 18.5 TFL)
Other notes: The Cougars will tear a team up through the air. They played in two #1 vs #2 contests this year, both times as the #1 team, and both times on the road. They’re the #5 seed (essentially), but they may still be one of the two best teams in NAIA.
Jon’s Prediction:
Saint Xavier 47, Bethel 21. It’s not even going to be close. Bethel will pass for about what they’re used to getting, but they’re going to get stoned on the ground. Meanwhile, Bethel isn’t built to defend the pass (or, really, the run), and Coy is going to unload.
14 Southern Nazarene (9-2) at 4 MidAmerica Nazarene (9-1)
Pioneer Stadium, Olathe KS, 2pm ET
Video available via MidAmerica Nazarene, but it’s pay-per-view apparently. Audio available via Southern Nazarene and UStream. Live Stats available via DakStats.
Series: MidAmerica Nazarene leads 2-0 (last: 41-17 MANU, 10/15/2011 at Wichita)
Southern Nazarene Crimson Storm
Location: Bethany OK
Conference: Central States
Colors: Crimson and White
Playoff appearances: 1 (2011)
Coach: Mike Cochran (6th year, 38-26; 75-36 overall including five years at MidAmerica Nazarene)
Key games: 28-12 loss at NW Oklahoma State on 10/8; 41-17 loss to MidAmerica Nazarene in Wichita on 10/15; 38-34 win over then #19 Langston on 11/12
Offense: 39.5 ppg, 395.9 ypg
Defense: 17.3 ppg, 256.9 ypg
Passing offense: 253.5 ypg
Passing defense: 162.4 ypg
Rushing offense: 142.4 ypg
Rushing defense: 94.5 ypg
Turnover margin: +9
Key players: QB Brady Wardlaw (56.6%, 2693 yds, 32 TD, 12 INT), RB Derick Perkins (148-658, 59.8 ypg, 10 TD), DB Matt Pruitt (5 INT, 2 TD), LB Michael Hicks (5.5 sacks, 28 TFL), DL Jonathan Jenkins-Dill (7 sacks, 15.5 TFL), LB Dillon Brumbaugh (4.5 sacks, 15 TFL)
Other notes: The Storm have a penchant for causing loss of yards and turnovers. They have a moderately strong passing attack, mostly underneath routes, accented by an assortment of runners. They probably don’t have the juice to advance, but the playoff spot is a nice parting gift on the way to NCAA D-II.
MidAmerica Nazarene Pioneers
Location: Olathe KS
Conference: Heart of America
Colors: Scarlet, Royal Blue, and White
Playoff appearances: 9, 5-8 (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Coach: Jonathan Quinn (3rd year, 31-4)
Key games: 26-21 loss at then #11 Missouri Valley on 9/10; 33-30 win at Baker on 10/1; 41-17 win over then #15 Southern Nazarene on 10/15 in Wichita; 49-39 win over then #7 Benedictine on 10/22
Offense: 40.2 ppg, 428.9 ypg
Defense: 15.5 ppg, 248.7 ypg
Passing offense: 199.3 ypg
Passing defense: 143.2 ypg
Rushing offense: 229.6 ypg
Rushing defense: 105.5 ypg
Turnover margin: +4
Key players: QB Tyler Herl (56.9%, 1127 yds, 12 TD, 7 INT), RB James Tillman (125-647, 71.9 ypg, 9 TD), DB A.J. Rodriguez (5 INT), DL Brandon Smith (12 sacks, 19 TFL)
Other notes: The Pioneers just grind you down, throwing enough passes to prevent stacking the box. They rank seventh in the NAIA in both total offense and total defense. They’re a reasonable bet to move all the way to the semifinals.
Jon’s Prediction:
MidAmerica Nazarene 40, Southern Nazarene 17. That’s what my magical number cruncher tells me, and the fact that it’s exactly one point different from the score of their previous meeting is a coincidence.
10 Ottawa (9-2) at 8 Azusa Pacific (8-2)
Cougar Athletic Stadium, Azusa CA, 8pm ET
Video available via Stretch Internet, pay-per-view. Audio available via KOFO. Live Stats available via DakStats.
Series: first meeting.
Ottawa Braves
Location: Ottawa KS
Conference: Kansas
Colors: Garnet and Grey
Playoff appearances: 6, 1-5 (1997, 2000, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Coach: Kent Kessinger (8th year, 50-34)
Key games:
Offense: 34.5 ppg, 379.5 ypg
Defense: 16.7 ppg, 319.2 ypg
Passing offense: 230.1 ypg
Passing defense: 167.0 ypg
Rushing offense: 149.5 ypg
Rushing defense: 152.2 ypg
Turnover margin: +10
Key players: QB Bobby Adamson (58.2%, 1873 yds, 18 TD, 13 INT), RB Michael Baer (173-886, 80.5 ypg, 5 TD), RB Shane Gimzo (99-463, 13 TD), WR/KR Clarence Anderson (80-1009, 91.7 ypg, 12 TD; 22-482 PR, 2 TD; 8-215 KR, 1 TD), DB Donald Anderson (5 INT, 2 TD)
Other notes: Ottawa started badly, dropping their first two games before reeling off nine straight and sweeping the KCAC schedule. Unfortunately, the KCAC schedule was horribly weak outside of Ottawa, and they’re not going to get far in this field.
Azusa Pacific Cougars
Location: Azusa CA
Conference: independent
Colors: Brick and Black
Playoff appearances: 8, 8-6, 1 title (1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011)
Coach: Victor Santa Cruz (6th year, 28-34)
Key games: 42-40 loss at FCS San Diego on 9/3; 48-19 win at D-II Dixie State on 10/15; 38-31 loss at D-II Lindenwood on 10/22; 49-6 win at Menlo on 11/5
Offense: 48.4 ppg, 503.4 ypg
Defense: 20.1 ppg, 313.2 ypg
Passing offense: 173.1 ypg
Passing defense: 211.0 ypg
Rushing offense: 330.3 ypg
Rushing defense: 102.2 ypg
Turnover margin: +7
Key players: QB John van den Raadt (54.7%, 1586 yds, 18 TD, 5 INT, 114-1087 rushing, 108.7 ypg, 9.5 ypc, 15 TD), RB Johnell Murphy (102-885, 88.5 ypg, 8.7 ypc, 9 TD), RB Terrel Watson (83-557, 55.7 ypg, 6.7 ypc, 11 TD), WR Matt Davis (40-786, 78.6 ypg, 7 TD),
Other notes: Azusa will just flat run the ball down your throat, and they won’t even let you return the favor. Their only two losses were playing up, and they basically rolled everyone else.
Jon’s Prediction:
Azusa Pacific 42, Ottawa 24. Ottawa will be able to get aerial yards, but they’re just not equipped to hold off Azusa’s rushing attack.
18 Grand View (8-3) at 1 Marian (10-0)
Saint Vincent Health Field, Indianapolis IN, 1pm ET
Video available via LiveStream. Audio available via Stretch Internet. Live Stats available via DakStats.
Series: Marian leads 4-0 (last: 19-14 Marian on 9/3 at Grand View)
Grand View Vikings
Location: Des Moines IA
Conference: Mid-States (Midwest League)
Colors: White and Red
Playoff appearances: 1 (2011)
Coach: Mike Woodley (4th year, 24-18; overall 37-36 including three years at Saint Ambrose)
Key games: 19-14 loss to then #6 Marian on 9/3; 28-21 loss at FCS Drake on 9/10; 17-9 loss to then #20 Saint Ambrose on 10/1; 24-21 win over then #9 Saint Francis (IL) on 10/29; 14-13 win over then #8 William Penn on 11/12
Offense: 27.5 ppg, 377.2 ypg
Defense: 14.8 ppg, 231.6 ypg
Passing offense: 184.6 ypg
Passing defense: 155.5 ypg
Rushing offense: 192.5 ypg
Rushing defense: 76.1 ypg
Turnover margin: -2
Key players: QB Gregory Charles (58.9%, 1898 yds, 17 TD, 11 INT), RB Darryl Ford (207-993, 90.3 ypg, 10 TD), LB Jon Higgins (6.5 sacks, 17 TFL)
Other notes: The Vikings pulled off a miracle on the season’s final week, landing in the playoffs as the only team not ranked in the top 16. With a different draw, they could have gotten somewhere with their stingy defense and balanced offense.
Marian Knights
Location: Indianapolis IN
Conference: Mid-States (Mideast League)
Colors: Blue and Gold
Playoff appearances: 2 (2010, 2011)
Coach: Ted Karras Jr. (5th year, 34-21; overall 48-37 including three years at Rose-Hulman)
Key games: 19-14 win at then #25 Grand View on 9/3; 40-13 win at then #6 Saint Francis (IN) on 10/15; 27-9 win over then #1 Saint Xavier on 11/5
Offense: 41.8 ppg, 429.0 ypg
Defense: 5.9 ppg, 202.7 ypg
Passing offense: 218.8 ypg
Passing defense: 128.9 ypg
Rushing offense: 210.2 ypg
Rushing defense: 73.8 ypg
Turnover margin: +6
Key players: QB Adam Weise (69.5%, 1864 yds, 15 TD, 6 INT), RB Tevin Lake (167-927, 92.7 ypg, 14 TD), WR/KR Julian Williams (49-791, 79.1 ypg, 5 TD; 5-209 KR, 41.8 ypr, 2 TD), DB Dustin Craig (6 INT), DL Seth Vondersaar (5.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL)
Other notes: Coach Karras is the nephew of Hall-of-Famer Alex Karras. They’re #1 for a reason; they have the best defense in the NAIA. Those three key games? Take those out, and Marian outscored their opponents 332-23. That’s an average score of 49-3, and then you consider SFIN didn’t really do much better than that? Yikes.
Jon’s Prediction:
Marian 38, Grand View 7. Yes, Grand View played the Knights much closer earlier this year. But that’s the point; that was the season opener for both teams. Since then, the only team that’s even stayed within three touchdowns has been Saint Xavier. It’s going to be a blowout.