Handy precaps for the four games in the Delaware Valley bracket of this week’s D-III playoff first round. Which was supposed to be the Saint Thomas bracket, until something apparently happened deep in the bowels of NCAA headquarters.

Either that, or I just got a screwed-up bracket somehow.

8 Norwich (7-3) at 1 Delaware Valley (10-0)
James Work Stadium, Doylestown PA, 12pm
Audio available via UStream. Live Stats available via Sidearm.

Series: Norwich leads 1-0 (49-0 in 1976).

Norwich Cadets

Location: Northfield VT
Conference: Eastern CFC
Colors: Maroon and Gold
Playoff appearances: 1 (2011)
Coach: Mark Murnyack (1st year, 7-3)
Key games: 28-24 loss at Western New England on 9/3; 29-14 loss to Saint Lawrence on 9/10; 37-14 loss to Hartwick on 9/17; 31-17 win over Mount Ida on 10/1; 16-9 win at New York Maritime on 11/5
Offense: 27.3 ppg; 370.5 ypg
Defense: 19.9 ppg; 344.4 ypg
Passing offense: 54.5 ypg
Passing defense: 199.6 ypg
Rushing offense: 316.0 ypg
Rushing defense: 144.8 ypg
Turnover margin: +1
Key players: QB Kris Sabourin (46.5%, 509 yds, 4 TD, 9 INT, 137-1010 rushing, 101.0 ypg, 9 TD), RB Andrew Fulford (169-910, 91 ypg, 10 TD), K Long Ding (12-15, long 51), LB Jimmy Labell (14 TFL)
Other notes: The worst passing offense in the field, but one of the best rushing offenses. Of course, you can’t be this one-dimensional, especially considering they’re coming from the worst league in the country. They started the season 0-3, then ran the table in the worst conference in D-III in order to get here. Not a recipe for playoff derring-do.

Delaware Valley Aggies

Location: Doylestown PA
Conference: Middle Atlantic
Colors: Green and Gold
Playoff appearances: 5, 6-4 (2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Coach: Jim Clements (6th year, 50-16)
Key games:
Offense: 32.5 ppg, 411.8 ypg
Defense: 10.9 ppg, 226.1 ypg
Passing offense: 224.1 ypg
Passing defense: 136.8 ypg
Rushing offense: 187.7 ypg
Rushing defense: 89.3 ypg
Turnover margin: +7
Key players: QB Aaron Wilmer (59.8%, 1685 yds, 15 TD, 3 INT), RB Kyle Schuberth (138-824, 103.0 ypg, 9 TD), DB Terrance Osborne (5 INT), DL Mike Jaskowski (7.5 sacks)
Other notes: They assault you both ways on offense, and stifle you both ways on defense. They’re capable of winning a slugfest or a shootout, and comfortable with it either way. But this field is tricky, and DelVal could be going home a lot sooner than you expect.

Jon’s Prediction:
Delaware Valley 39, Norwich 6. This game is all going to come down to DelVal’s rush defense against Norwich’s rush offense. One of the two has to give, and it’s most likely going to be the latter. If Norwich can effectively run the ball, however, this game could turn into a wild shootout.

8 Saint Scholastica (10-0) at 1 Saint Thomas (MN) (10-0)
O’Shaughnessy Stadium, Saint Paul MN, 1pm ET
Video available via Minnesota Sports Network. Audio available via StretchInternet. Live Stats available via Elastic Stats.

Series: first meeting.

Saint Scholastica Saints

Location: Duluth MN
Conference: Upper Midwest
Colors: Royal Blue and Gold
Playoff appearances: 1 (2011)
Coach: Greg Carlson (4th year, 22-18; 139-97-2 overall including 18 years at Wabash and 3 at Whittier)
Key games: 30-26 win at Greenville on 9/17; 29-12 win over Westminster (MO) on 10/15
Offense: 45.6 ppg, 471.3 ypg
Defense: 14.9 ppg, 281.6 ypg
Passing offense: 264.1 ypg
Passing defense: 171.3 ypg
Rushing offense: 207.2 ypg
Rushing defense: 110.3 ypg
Turnover margin: +24
Key players: QB Alex Thiry (73.3%, 2549 yds, 37 TD, 1 INT), RB Jake Jensen (124-709, 118.2 ypg, 8 TD), RB Travis Nehowig (104-702, 117.0 ypg, 9 TD), WR Keegan O’Neill (50-926, 92.6 ypg, 16 TD), DE Christopher Doran (8 sacks, 12.5 TFL), DL Zack Dubanoski (5.5 sacks, 14.5 TFL), LB Sean Graskey (4 sacks, 13 TFL)
Other notes: Jensen went down in October with turf toe in the very same game that Nehowig returned from injury, so it’s really very eerie that their stats are so similar. Taken as one back, they’re 228-1411, 117.5 ypg, 17 TD. It’s still unclear whether Jensen will return for the playoffs; having both backs available would be a huge boost to the Saints’ chances of springing an upset or two.

Saint Thomas Tommies

Location: Saint Paul MN
Conference: Minnesota IAC
Colors: Purple and Grey
Playoff appearances: 4, 5-3 (1990, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Coach: Glenn Caruso (4th year, 40-6; 46-18 overall including two seasons at Macalester)
Key games: 20-7 win over Saint Norbert on 9/3; 49-14 win over Saint Olaf on 9/17; 63-7 win over Saint John’s on 10/1; 23-13 win at then #10 Bethel on 10/22
Offense: 39.0 ppg, 431.1 ypg
Defense: 10.0 ppg, 224.2 ypg
Passing offense: 216.3 ypg
Passing defense: 169.8 ypg
Rushing offense: 214.8 ypg
Rushing defense: 54.4 ypg
Turnover margin: +2
Key players: QB Dakota Tracy (57.5%, 1775 yds, 16 TD, 8 INT, 74-351 rushing, 7 TD), RB Colin Tobin (184-979, 97.9 ypg, 15 TD), WR Fritz Waldvogel (53-862, 86.2 ypg, 10 TD, 1 PR for TD), LB Willy Baregi (6 sacks, 10.5 TFL), LB Tony Danna (4 sacks, 14 TFL), LB Harry Pitera (3.5 sacks, 10 TFL)
Other notes: Nobody really stands out individually in the Tommies’ offense; it’s just a cohesive team effort that results in a ton of yards and points. Defensively, the team is anchored by a brutal linebacking corps that crushes the run.

Jon’s Prediction:
Saint Thomas 49, Saint Scholastica 13. The problem for Scholastica, besides immediately facing competition on a completely different plane of existence than that to which they are familiar, is that they’re not likely to get that running game untracked against the Tommie defense. That, in turn, is going to lead to problems in the passing game. Realistically, this is all going to come down to the line of scrimmage; the Saints probably won’t be able to hang in there.

6 Monmouth (IL) (9-1) at 3 Illinois Wesleyan (9-1)
Wilder Field at Tucci Stadium, Bloomington IL, 1pm ET
Video available via StretchInternet. Live Stats available via Sidearm.

Series: IWU leads 2-1-1 (last: 1974)

Monmouth Scots

Location: Monmouth IL
Conference: Midwest
Colors: Red and White
Playoff appearances: 4, 1-3 (2005, 2008, 2009, 2011)
Coach: Steve Bell (12th year, 93-31)
Key games: 35-28 loss to then #15 Wartburg on 9/3; 55-14 win at Illinois College on 9/24; 10-3 win at Saint Norbert on 10/1; 42-17 win over Ripon on 10/8
Offense: 49.3 ppg, 556.7 ypg
Defense: 21.8 ppg, 366.9 ypg
Passing offense: 342.2 ypg
Passing defense: 225.1 ypg
Rushing offense: 214.5 ypg
Rushing defense: 141.8 ypg
Turnover margin: +8
Key players: QB Alex Tanney (73.0%, 3304 yds, 35 TD, 7 INT), RB Trey Yocum (181-1320, 132.0 ypg, 20 TD), WR Mike Blodgett (102-1554, 155.4 ypg, 16 TD), LB Preston Lumzy (8 sacks, 14 TFL), LB Rod Ojong (10.5 TFL)
Other notes: Alex Tanney is the NCAA All-Division career passing touchdown leader, and no matter who Monmouth faces you can expect him to put on a show. The team can run the ball effectively as well. The only real downside statistically is a somewhat porous pass defense, but the run defense is fairly solid.

Illinois Wesleyan Titans

Location: Bloomington IL
Conference: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
Colors: Green and White
Playoff appearances: 4, 3-3 (1992, 1996, 2009, 2011)
Coach: Norm Eash (26th year, 158-83-1)
Key games: 24-19 win over then #7 Wheaton on 10/1; 24-0 loss to then #6 North Central on 10/22
Offense: 24.5 ppg, 344.2 ypg
Defense: 11.3 ppg, 284.5 ypg
Passing offense: 231.8 ypg
Passing defense: 161.1 ypg
Rushing offense: 112.4 ypg
Rushing defense: 123.4 ypg
Turnover margin: +1
Key players: QB Rob Galik (63.2%, 2248 yds, 15 TD, 11 INT), DL Ryan Jenkins (8.5 sacks, 10.5 TFL), LB Ryan Gresko (10 TFL)
Other notes: Offensively, it’s Galik’s arm and whoever can gain a couple of yards; the team only averages 3.2 yards per rush. It’s Wesleyan’s defense — specifically, their red zone defense — that’s doing the job. Only 40% of opponent’s penetrations end up in touchdowns, and less than half the rest result in field goals. One caveat, though: while the CCIW is a tough conference, IWU also played absolutely nobody of merit in the non-conference portion of their schedule. That, of course, is always a red flag come playoff time.

Jon’s Prediction:
Monmouth 28, Illinois Wesleyan 24. I’m calling for the upset here, because this is one of those situations where a D-III player is so talented that he transcends the normal level of play. The Titans will contain him somewhat — don’t be expecting Monmouth to roll up 500 yards of offense here. But there’s a huge gap between Monmouth’s rushing yardage and Wesleyan’s rush defense, and IWU’s CCIW schedule doesn’t account for all of that. Regardless, this is hands-down the best game on the docket this week, and to put the icing on the cake the two schools are only about 100 miles apart yet have only played four times. I can’t recommend you watch it strongly enough.

5 Saint John Fisher (8-2) at 4 Johns Hopkins (10-0)
Homewood Field, Baltimore MD, 12pm ET
Video available via Johns Hopkins. Audio available via WROC. Live Stats available via Johns Hopkins.

Series: first meeting.

Saint John Fisher Cardinals

Location: Pittsford NY
Conference: Empire 8
Colors: Cardinal and Gold
Playoff appearances: 4, 6-3 (2004, 2006, 2007, 2011)
Coach: Paul Vosburgh (21st year, 118-98, 130-121-1 overall including three years at William Penn)
Key games: 12-7 win over Buffalo State on 9/10; 56-20 loss to Hobart on 9/24; 17-3 win over Alfred on 10/1; 41-21 loss at then #11 Salisbury on 11/5
Offense: 32.0 ppg, 369.4 ypg
Defense: 19.7 ppg, 313.1 ypg
Passing offense: 156.1 ypg
Passing defense: 173.1 ypg
Rushing offense: 213.3 ypg
Rushing defense: 146.0 ypg
Turnover margin: +7
Key players: QB Ryan Kramer (58.1%, 1460 yds, 13 TD, 8 INT, 133-840 rushing, 84 ypg, 12 TD), PR Adam Burdick (22-296, 13.5 ypr, 2 TD), DB Troy Sant (7 INT, 1 TD), DB Dave Vosburgh (11.5 TFL)
Other notes: As goes Kramer, so goes the offense. Fisher somehow manages to cobble enough contributions from other players to generate yards and points. Defensively, they tend to bend slightly without breaking.

Johns Hopkins Blue Jays

Location: Baltimore MD
Conference: Centennial
Colors: Columbia Blue and Black
Playoff appearances: 3, 2-2 (2005, 2009, 2011)
Coach: Jim Margraff (22nd year, 147-78-3)
Key games: 56-7 win over Susquehanna on 9/10; 83-21 win at Gettysburg on 10/22
Offense: 42.6 ppg, 500.3 ypg
Defense: 12.1 ppg, 279.1 ypg
Passing offense: 319.3 ypg
Passing defense: 131.9 ypg
Rushing offense: 181.0 ypg
Rushing defense: 97.2 ypg
Turnover margin: +3
Key players: QB Hewitt Tomlin (68.8%, 2459 yds, 23 TD, 5 INT), RB Jonathan Rigaud (123-768, 76.8 ypg, 11 TD), WR Daniel Wodicka (75-1162, 116.2 ypg, 6 TD), DL Kale Sweeney (10 TFL)
Other notes: Hopkins can tear you up in the air, and on the ground. They have the second-longest winning streak in D-III, behind only Whitewater, and they weren’t too seriously challenged all season… although they did shake Gettysburg off their tail in somewhat bombastic fashion back in October.

Jon’s Prediction:
Saint John Fisher 29, Johns Hopkins 26. Surprised? The issue here is, of course, the level of competition each team faced. The Centennial was an absolutely terrible league this year, while not only did Fisher survive an Empire 8 season, their non-conference schedule was a challenge. But this game really could go either way. I just think Fisher is going to throttle back the Blue Jays’ passing game enough to disrupt their offensive flow.