Last year, Towson and Old Dominion shocked the league, having been predicted to finish in the last two spots in the standings. Instead, Towson won the conference title outright, and Old Dominion tied for second, with both teams making the FCS playoffs. This year, the two teams return 32 starters between them, and are expected to finish atop the circuit. Oddly, the national media has James Madison ranked higher than either team, so you can consider this a three-team race (though JMU is probably being overrated in the national poll).
Of course, Old Dominion might finish in first place yet not win the conference title, as they’ve been declared ineligible for the crime of agreeing to leave and join Conference USA. Also ineligible is Sun Belt-bound Georgia State, but they’re not relevant to the conference race. Next year, their places will be taken by two teams which made the playoffs last year (and should again this year), Albany and Stony Brook.
As always, this is probably the best conference in FCS, and when the playoff field is selected in November several of these teams will be there. Six teams are ranked in the FCS poll. But strange things happen in the Colonial, and you can’t be too surprised if they send five teams to the playoffs and two of them weren’t expected to contend. And with that… capsules:
Towson Tigers: They came out of nowhere. After only winning three conference games in the previous four seasons, Towson suddenly found themselves as the CAA champions. QB Grant Enders and RB Terrance West, the league’s preseason player of the year, both return, as do 15 other starters including the entire offensive line; only Villanova returns more of last year’s complement, so it’s relatively easy to pencil the Tigers in for a repeat, especially with Old Dominion ineligible. The defense only loses two starters, but they have two transfers coming in to the secondary: Georgia’s Jordan Love and Darrell Givens from Rutgers.
The schedule’s not friendly. They visit James Madison, Delaware, and New Hampshire, and have money games at Kent State (winnable, though) and Louisiana State. They also don’t get to play Georgia State. But they get Old Dominion at home, so that’s something.
Old Dominion Monarchs: Fifteen starters, including phemon soph QB Taylor Heinecke, return to a squad which is amazingly only in their fourth year of existence and already have playoff wins under their belt. In fact, if not for a single blown coverage in the game against Towson, the Monarchs would have won the CAA title last year. The program’s age is important, as this means it’s the senior year for that first freshman recruiting class, and they want to go out with a bang. Heinecke was ridiculous as a freshman, coming in mid-season to replace Thomas DeMarco and proceeding to throw for over 2500 yards and racking up an absolutely insane 25-1 TD/INT ratio. And the lone interception was on a hail mary.
That Old Dominion is ineligible for the conference title this year is actually sort of a blessing when looked at the right way. They just need to concern themselves with winning eight or nine games and grabbing an at-large bid. They do have to visit both Towson and James Madison, but everything else falls into place nicely as far as the schedule is concerned.
James Madison Dukes: They may be a little overrated, but they’re still a force to contend with. Nine starters are gone, but the losses are balanced across all units, so there aren’t any gaping wounds to suture. RB Dae’Quan Scott returns to carry the offensive load, with 1300 yards in his pocket from last year. An already strong secondary has been fortified with the additions of Jeremiah Wilson and Titus Till, both refugees from Maryland.
As for the schedule, the Dukes get Towson and Old Dominion at home, miss Delaware and New Hampshire entirely, and for cryin’ out loud they even get to play “at” West Virginia… in Landover, MD. This team is not as good on paper as Towson, but they may still win the conference title anyway.
New Hampshire Wildcats: Fourteen starters return, seven on each side of the ball, to a team whose profile is slowly shifting from pinball offense to tenacious defense. This is a team team, for the most part, with only LB Matt Evans really standing out individually. Evans returns after having won the Buck Buchanan Award last year as the best defender in FCS. The rest of the team is comprised of players who are just really good, but work well together. For the offense, the biggest key is that the entire offensive line returns.
It’s a favorable schedule. The Wildcats get Towson and Delaware at home, miss James Madison, and their lone FBS game is at Minnesota. That one is eminently winnable. Expect UNH to make its ninth straight playoff appearance.
Delaware Blue Hens: Half the starters are gone on offense, though 1200 yard rusher Andrew Pierce returns. QB Tim Donnelly also returns, though he failed to live up to the Delaware QB standard last year; he’s going to have to improve, especially on an 11:10 TD/INT ratio. He may be pushed for the starting job, as sophomore Trent Hurley has transferred in from Bowling Green. Only one starter returns on the offensive line, so that’s a point of concern. On defense, only two starters were lost, and two more transfers from Maryland pick up the slack in DT Zack Kerr and LB David Mackall.
The schedule does Delaware no damage. The non-conference slate is ridiculously easy, and they get Towson at home while skipping James Madison altogether. Trips to Old Dominion and New Hampshire are the only real concern.
Maine Black Bears: 3000-yard QB Warren Smith is gone. 1000-yard RB Pushaun Brown is gone. Half the secondary is gone. It’s just a mess of questions for a team which got to the FCS quarterfinals last year. They have to visit Towson and Delaware, and have a rough non-conference game at home against Albany. On the other hand, they miss Old Dominion and their FBS game is at Boston College; an upset isn’t out of the question.
William & Mary Tribe: It’s a long way down. Two years ago, the Tribe were in the top 5 and came oh so close to winning the CAA title. Last year they tumbled to 5-6, and now they’re on the outside looking in. They’ve lost ten starters, including 1400-yard rusher Jonathan Grimes, and nobody remaining has big numbers that pop out at you. And then there’s the schedule. At Towson, at Old Dominion, at James Madison, at New Hampshire… at that point, “at Maryland” starts looking like a break.
Villanova Wildcats: Nova was the biggest surprise of 2011, and not in a good way. Expected to be in the discussion for the national title, the Cats stumbled through injuries and inexperience to a miserable 2-9 record. The good news is they’re going to be plenty experienced in 2012, as 20 starters return. Whether those starters are any good remains to be seen; they weren’t last year. But that sort of returning talent almost always shows drastic improvement, so the worst case scenario for Nova is getting back to .500 in all likelihood. The schedule is neither helpful nor disastrous, as they balance home and road against the league powers. Their FBS game is “at” Temple, which will really be a home game for both teams.
Richmond Spiders: The 2008 FCS Champions took exactly two years to tumble all the way to a winless conference season. After Mike London left to take over at Virginia, the Spiders are now on their third head coach in three years as Danny Rocco comes in from Liberty. Nine starters are gone, and this team is in full rebuild mode now.
Rhode Island Rams: Only nine starters return to a team that sort of felt like it was overachieving last year even though they only finished 3-8. In fact, only 31 lettermen return, so this is going to be a long campaign. This is expected to be Rhode Island’s final year in the conference, with a move to the Northeast Conference on the horizon, but that decision has not been completely finalized yet.
Georgia State Panthers: They finally became actual members of the conference just in time to announce they were leaving for the Sun Belt and FBS. As a result, in the only season in which their games actually count in the conference standings, they aren’t even going to be eligible for the conference title. Not that it matters. Only ten starters return, which sort of raises questions as to what Bill Curry’s plan was to build the program; you’d expect him to have wanted a strong senior class for the school’s first year in a conference. (That said, he’ll have a lot of seniors for the first year at FBS, so maybe it all worked out.) The defensive line has new blood via transfer in the form of John Kelly from Nevada and Kentucky’s Nermin Delic, both sophomores. They aren’t going to be much help this year, though, as the Panthers are going to have a hard time avoiding last place.