On the edges, there is no doubt in the minds of the league’s coaches and media as to who belongs where. Stony Brook took 15 of 18 first place votes, and are ranked 17th in the TSN Division I FCS pre-season poll as well. Liberty was a clear choice for second, while VMI and Charleston Southern were pretty much uncontested selections for the final two places in the standings. It’s the middle that’s muddy, and we’ll get to that in a bit.
First, though, is the gorilla in the room. The defending champions and prohibitive favorites are playing their final year in the conference, as they and their first-round playoff opponents from last year (Albany) are joining the CAA to shore up the leaks caused by the departures of UMass, Old Dominion, and Georgia State. That will leave the Big South with only six teams, which is still enough to retain the autobid, but… but. Liberty is actively studying a move to FBS. Coastal Carolina is looking for other options. So, what are the Big South’s options if it comes down to it?
Campbell is a member of the conference for basketball, and plays non-scholarship football in the Pioneer League; they could opt to start giving scholarships and bring their program into the fold. Winthrop, also a member of the conference, has pondered adding football in the past. The Atlantic Sun has a few teams either playing football in the PFL, or looking into football. So they’ve got outs if they need them, assuming they can get schools to play along.
Our digression complete, on to the team capsules:
Stony Brook Seawolves: The New Yorkers got their first playoff bid, their first playoff win against system-mates (and next year, conference-mates) Albany, and then came within a touchdown of knocking off the #1 team in the country, who just happened to reach the FCS Championship Game. Not a bad year. This year, they’ll hope to improve, and it’s doable. They lose 1400-yard rusher Brock Jackolski, but there’s two pieces of good news directly related to that: one, Jackolski’s going to be replaced by a strange being of alien origin — Marcus Coker, an Iowa transfer who actually has both ACLs. The second is that Jackolski wasn’t even Stony Brook’s leading rusher, and Miguel Maysonet returns after nearly 1700 yards last year. Also returning is QB Kyle Essington, who racked up almost 2000 yards with a 20/4 TD/INT ratio and didn’t even become the starter until mid-season. Maryland WR transfer Adrian Coxson joins the show, and junior Myles Campbell returns after missing all of last season; that’s two more targets for Essington to play with. The Seawolves racked up 494 points in 13 games; they should score over 40 a tilt this year.
That’s a good thing, because defensively Stony Brook “only” returns six starters. That’s a mixed bag of a situation anyway as they gave up 303 points last year, and they’ll certainly hope that the replacements do a better job. The entire defensive line save Jonathan Coats is gone, with Minnesota transfer Leston Simpson set to move in at DE. Jawara Dudley leads a mostly intact linebacking corps, and the secondary returns two of four starters including their best back, senior FS Dominick Reyes.
The schedule’s a bit dicey, as they have to visit both Liberty and Coastal Carolina and have two road games against FBS teams. Of course, it was a win over an FBS team last year that vaulted them into notice; they may well get another one this year at Army. Syracuse… well, let’s not get too overconfident.
Liberty Flames: Two years ago, Liberty lost out on the automatic bid when they lost an absolutely nutty tiebreaker with Stony Brook and Coastal Carolina. Last year, they just plain got beaten by the Seawolves. Overall, they’ve been the best team in the conference for years, but have zip to show for it, and they’re probably going to have to wait until Stony Brook’s out of their hair now. Head coach Danny Rocco got snatched up by Richmond, so the Flames hauled in Turner Gill once Kansas sent him packing. While Gill’s travails in Lawrence were misery incarnate, he was successful at Buffalo, and perhaps a less intense environment will serve the former Nebraska star well.
Gill is going to have to patch things together, however, as only 13 starters return. He’s got a QB mess to sort out, a defensive line in shambles, and questionable weaponry on the flanks. Still, he’s got two starting tailbacks in his pocket, an All-American LG in Malcolm Boyd, and star CB/KR Kevin Fogg returns as well. They’d have a chance if it weren’t for the fact that Stony Brook is going to murder an inexperienced defensive front; if that unit gels, they might surprise. The schedule is not their friend, however. Even though they get Stony Brook at home, they visit Montana and Coastal Carolina, host a dangerous Lehigh squad, and will suffer a guarantee game at Wake Forest.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: David Bennett was a hero to many, including in Myrtle Beach. The coach, popular with fans for taking the Chants to the playoffs in 2010 and with casual observers for some absolutely entertaining interviews, was unceremoniously dispatched at the behest of cranky boosters following an underwhelming 7-4 campaign. That spurred former QB Tyler Thigpen to throw a very public hissy fit and demand that the school disassociate itself from him. The story took an even weirder turn when CCU hired former banking executive Joe Moglia as head coach. Moglia has experience as an assistant, but hasn’t coached for 20 years, so this will be a particularly interesting little experiment.
Fifteen starters return, including all the key skill players on offense; losses on defense were balanced, so there aren’t giant gaps to be filled. The real question for the Chants is Moglia himself; if he really knows what he’s doing, third place and a run at second aren’t out of the question. If not, this could be disaster, especially given their schedule. Although they host both Stony Brook and Liberty, they’ve got non-conference games at Furman, Appalachian State, and FBS Toledo and a home game against Eastern Kentucky, who made the playoffs last year.
Presbyterian Blue Hose: Fourteen starters return to help the Hose in their first season of eligibility for the conference title and the playoffs. There’s some promise here; the team posted a 4-1 mark at home last year and have been showing improvement. They also get the three teams ahead of them here at home, as well as a non-conference game with Furman. That may work to their advantage, but got to learn to win on the road; this year’s a good time to get some practice at it, as they visit both of the league’s doormats. Of course, they also visit Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, on back-to-back weekends no less. Even if they can’t get past Furman, they should be 3-3 when Liberty comes calling, so their confidence might be high.
Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs: The coaches have tabbed GWU for fifth place, but there’s one little detail that may belie that selection: the Bulldogs return 20 starters, only losing two players on defense. Of course, one of those two was all-conference LB Marty Patterson, and of conference teams only Charleston Southern had a worse defense last year, so that may be a mixed blessing. Experience might solve all problems, though. RB Kenny Little rushed for over 1000 yards last year, and multi-threat Kenny Rhodes returns after running for over 500 yards; he’ll move over to WR this year.
The fly in the ointment for the Bulldogs is the schedule; they have to visit Liberty and Stony Brook, as well as Richmond and FBS Pittsburgh. They also host Wofford in a game they shouldn’t be expected to win, and face NAIA powerhouse MidAmerica Nazarene at home. They should win that one, but it’s the definition of a potential embarrasment.
Virginia Military Keydets: Only 12 starters return, fewest in the conference, and pretty much everyone good graduated. Only, ah, zero players made the pre-season all-conference team. Only two wins last year, both in the conference, one against hapless Charleston Southern. A quarterback with around a 50% completion rate… and around a 50% TD/INT rate, too. It’s not going to be a pretty fall in Lexington.
Charleston Southern Buccaneers: 62-0 loss to Central Florida. 62-10 loss to Florida State. 33-3 loss to Norfolk State. 32-20 loss to Division III Wesley. You get the idea. The Buccaneers weren’t just winless, they were hopeless. Still, there is light: DB Charles James is the preseason conference Defensive Player of the Year, and WR Nathan Perera is a standout. They weren’t completely outmatched against the bottom half of the conference last year, and seemed to be improving late, and the schedule’s not horrible despite having to play four of their first five games on the road as three of those games are actually winnable. They should improve; how much is the question.