Previews, team capsules, and predictions for the second-round FCS playoff games taking place in the bottom half of the bracket this week follow.
Maine (8-3) at Appalachian State (9-2)
Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone NC, 2pm ET
Airs on ESPN GamePlan. Video available via ESPN3. Audio available via Stretch Internet and Appalachian State. Live Stats available via NCAA.
Series: Maine leads 1-0 (14-13 at Appalachian State, 2002 playoffs)
Maine Black Bears
Location: Orono ME
Conference: Colonial
Colors: Dark Blue and Light Blue
Playoff appearances: 6, 2-5 (1987, 1989, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2011)
Coach: Jack Cosgrove (19th year, 105-111)
Key games:
Offense: 29.5 ppg, 372.0 ypg
Defense: 23.9 ppg, 348.3 ypg
Passing offense: 240.3 ypg
Passing defense: 190.0 ypg
Rushing offense: 131.7 ypg
Rushing defense: 158.3 ypg
Turnover margin: +9
Key players: QB Warren Smith (64.3%, 2643 yds, 17 TD, 10 INT), RB Pushaun Brown (193-944, 94.4 ypg, 4.9 ypc, 10 TD), DB Trevor Coston (6 INT), DL Michael Cole (10 sacks, 13.5 TFL), DB Jerron McMillian (10.5 TFL)
Other notes: Stop the pass, you can stop Maine. Otherwise, you’re in for a long day. They’ve played a lot of close games, and forcing mistakes is a key to beating them.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Location: Boone NC
Conference: Southern
Colors: Black and Gold
Playoff appearances: 19, 24-15, three titles (1986, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Coach: Jerry Moore (23rd year, 208-81; overall 235-129-2 including 2 years at North Texas and 5 years at Texas Tech)
Key games:
Offense: 30.2 ppg, 400.7 ypg
Defense: 22.9 ppg, 343.1 ypg
Passing offense: 231.0 ypg
Passing defense: 199.7 ypg
Rushing offense: 169.7 ypg
Rushing defense: 143.4 ypg
Turnover margin: +5
Key players: QB Jamal Jackson (62.2%, 1729 yds, 14 TD, 6 INT), RB Travaris Cadet (145-655, 59.5 ypg, 4.5 ypc), WR Brian Quick (64-1055, 95.9 ypg, 16.5 ypc, 11 TD), DB Demetrius McCray (5 INT), LB Jeremy Kimbrough (4 sacks, 11.5 TFL), DL Ronald Blair (11.5 TFL)
Other notes: Jackson missed much of the first half of the season, and DeAndre Presley filled in acceptably. K Drew Stewart is 8-10 within the 44, while K/P Sam Martin is only 3-9, but 3-5 outside 40 and 2-4 beyond 50, but 0-4 inside 40. In other words, if a long FG is called for, expect Martin to take it. The Mountaineers have a lot of ball carriers; Cadet’s just the leading rusher. They’re vulnerable to the pass, and could even have trouble with a balanced offense if it’s potent both ways.
Jon’s Prediction:
Appalachian State 29, Maine 24. It’s going to look more like a shootout than anything, and that score may be higher on both sides. Still, Appalachian is at home, and they’re a better team.
Old Dominion (10-2) at Georgia Southern (9-2)
Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro GA, 1pm ET
Airs on ESPN GamePlan. Video available via ESPN3. Audio available via Old Dominion and Georgia Southern.
Series: first meeting.
Old Dominion Monarchs
Location: Norfolk VA
Conference: Colonial
Colors: Slate Blue and Silver
Playoff appearances: 1, 1-0 (2011)
Coach: Bobby Wilder (3rd year, 27-7)
Key games: 27-17 loss at then #7 Delaware on 9/24; 48-33 win over then #20 Massachusetts on 10/1; 39-35 loss to then #17 Towson on 10/15; 23-20 win over then #9 James Madison on 10/29; 35-18 win over #19 Norfolk State in first round on 11/26
Offense: 35.8 ppg, 429.2 ypg
Defense: 25.5 ppg, 367.7 ypg
Passing offense: 262.0 ypg
Passing defense: 251.8 ypg
Rushing offense: 165.2 ypg
Rushing defense: 115.9 ypg
Turnover margin: +12
Key players: QB Taylor Heinicke (70.7%, 2039 yds, 20 TD, 1 INT), RB Angus Harper (135-602, 50.2 ypg, 4.5 ypc, 9 TD), RB Colby Goodwyn (118-534, 66.8 ypg, 4.5 ypc, 3 TD), WR Nick Mayers (57-658, 59.8 ypg, 11.5 ypc, 7 TD), DB Eriq Lewis (5 INT), DT Ronnie Cameron (6.5 sacks, 16.0 TFL), LB Craig Wilkins (14.5 TFL)
Other notes: Heinicke, a freshman, has started the last eight games and has been a revelation. The Monarchs are vulnerable against the pass, but unless you’re very adept at stopping a passing game it’s going to become a track meet.
Georgia Southern Eagles
Location: Statesboro GA
Conference: Southern
Colors: Blue and White
Playoff appearances: 18, 41-11, six titles (1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011)
Coach: Jeff Monken (2nd year, 19-7)
Key games:
Offense: 35.9 ppg, 424.9 ypg
Defense: 20.4 ppg, 335.2 ypg
Passing offense: 106.2 ypg
Passing defense: 198.3 ypg
Rushing offense: 318.7 ypg
Rushing defense: 136.9 ypg
Turnover margin: +4
Key players: QB Jaybo Shaw (51.5%, 1096 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT, 10 rushing TD), RB Robert Brown (130-834, 75.8 ypg, 6.4 ypc, 5 TD), RB Dominique Swope (91-591, 59.1 ypg, 6.5 ypc, 4 TD), RB Jerick McKinnon (80-537, 53.7 ypg, 6.7 ypc, 7 TD), WR Johnathan Bryant (9-303, 33.7 ypc, 2 TD), KR/DB Laron Scott (25-836, 33.4 ypr, 2 TD, 3 INT), K Adrian Mora (12-13, long 49, 10-10 inside 40), DT Brent Russell (5 sacks, 12 TFL)
Other notes: Triple option all up in your grill. Unless your name is “Alabama”, you’re not stopping them. For that matter, even if your name is “Alabama”, you’re not stopping them; the Eagles scored more points on the Crimson Tide than any other team this season. They don’t pass much, but have an uncanny knack of striking for big plays when they do. Defensively, they can be susceptible to a great passing team, so keep an eye out for potential mismatches there.
Jon’s Prediction:
Georgia Southern 40, Old Dominion 30. Old Dominion does have some advantages here. They’re fairly strong against the run, and they’ve got Heinicke to pepper the Eagles’ defense. But the triple option’s hard to defend if you’re not used to it, and the Eagles have experience on their side here.
Lehigh (10-1) at Towson (9-2)
Minnegan Field at Johnny Unitas Stadium, Towson MD, 3:30pm ET
Airs on ESPN GamePlan. Video available via ESPN3. Audio available via Lehigh and Towson.
Series: Lehigh leads 10-1 (last: 2003, Lehigh 35-3 at Lehigh)
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Location: Bethlehem PA
Conference: Patriot
Colors: Brown and White
Playoff appearances: 9, 5-8 (1979, 1980, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2010, 2011; three D-II appearances before creation of I-AA, 3-2 and 1977 champions)
Coach: Andy Coen (6th year, 40-28)
Key games:
Offense: 34.7 ppg, 478.8 ypg
Defense: 18.2 ppg, 307.4 ypg
Passing offense: 342.4 ypg
Passing defense: 217.4 ypg
Rushing offense: 136.5 ypg
Rushing defense: 90.0 ypg
Turnover margin: +6
Key players: QB Chris Lum (67.0%, 3739 yds, 31 TD, 15 INT), RB Zach Barket (143-706, 70.6 ypg, 4.9 ypc, 4 TD), WR Ryan Spadola (83-1462, 132.9 ypg, 17.6 ypc, 10 TD), WR Jake Drwal (77-912, 82.9 ypg, 11.8 ypc, 9 TD), DB Mike Groome (4 INT), DB Bryan Andrews (4 INT, 1 TD), DL Ben Flizack (6.5 sacks, 12 TFL)
Other notes: The most exciting QB in the playoffs, Lum makes Lehigh go. If you can shut him down, you’re in business. As always, the question with the Mountain Hawks is the extent to which they padded their resume playing Patriot League and Ivy schools.
Towson Tigers
Location: Towson MD
Conference: Colonial
Colors: Black and Gold
Playoff appearances: 1 (2011; 1 appearance in D-III playoffs in 1976, and 3 appearances in D-II playoffs, 1983, 1984, 1986 — now the only team to appear in FCS, D-II, AND D-III playoffs)
Coach: Rob Ambrose (3rd year, 12-21; overall 15-28 including one year at Catholic)
Key games:
Offense: 34.5 ppg, 439.4 ypg
Defense: 24.7 ppg, 359.4 ypg
Passing offense: 199.9 ypg
Passing defense: 213.8 ypg
Rushing offense: 239.5 ypg
Rushing defense: 145.5 ypg
Turnover margin: +8
Key players: QB Grant Enders (68.3%, 1867 yds, 14 TD, 8 INT), RB Terrance West (183-1242, 124.2 ypg, 6.8 ypc, 27 TD), K D.J. Soven (6-7, long 47), DE Frank Beltre (4 sacks, 11 TFL)
Other notes: Towson went from worst-to-first, and it was a complete surprise to everyone as they’d been picked to finish last. They can run and they can pass, but they’re vulnerable to a team with a potent passing game.
Jon’s Prediction:
Towson 31, Lehigh 30. On paper, Lehigh looks a lot better, and there’s a bit of a mismatch. On grass, Lehigh played a weak schedule while Towson won the CAA. It’ll be a good game, probably the best of the day in FCS. But Towson should squeak through.
James Madison (8-4) at North Dakota State (10-1)
FargoDome, Fargo ND, 4pm ET
Airs on ESPN GamePlan. Video available via ESPN3. Audio available via James Madison and KFGO.
Series: first meeting.
James Madison Dukes
Location: Harrisonburg VA
Conference: Colonial
Colors: Purple and Gold
Playoff appearances: 10, 9-9, 1 title (1987, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011)
Coach: Mickey Matthews (12th year, 96-60)
Key games: 27-24 win at then #22 Liberty on 9/17; 20-14 win at then #6 William & Mary on 9/24; 31-7 win over then #10 Richmond on 10/1; 25-24 loss in OT to then #19 Maine on 10/8; 23-20 loss at then #15 Old Dominion on 10/29; 28-10 loss at then #9 New Hampshire on 11/5; 20-17 win at Eastern Kentucky in first round on 10/26
Offense: 22.9 ppg, 352.7 ypg
Defense: 19.1 ppg, 297.3 ypg
Passing offense: 118.6 ypg
Passing defense: 199.9 ypg
Rushing offense: 234.1 ypg
Rushing defense: 97.4 ypg
Turnover margin: +5
Key players: QB Justin Thorpe (60.7%, 690 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT), RB Dae’Quan Scott (220-1241, 103.4 ypg, 5.6 ypc, 12 TD), RB Jordan Anderson (160-834, 69.5 ypg, 5.2 ypc, 9 TD), DE D.J. Bryant (6.5 sacks, 12 TFL), DE Lamar Middleton (6 sacks, 10 TFL)
Other notes: Thorpe missed five games due to a suspension after reportedly failing a drug test. This is a run-first team and they make no effort to hide the fact. They’re also very stingy against the run, but somewhat vulnerable to the pass.
North Dakota State Bison
Location: Fargo ND
Conference: Missouri Valley
Colors: Yellow and Green
Playoff appearances: 1 (2011, but in the D-II playoffs, 17 appearances, 30-13, 5 titles)
Coach: Craig Bohl (9th year, 71-31)
Key games:
Offense: 33.5 ppg, 344.5 ypg
Defense: 14.9 ppg, 321.7 ypg
Passing offense: 187.3 ypg
Passing defense: 199.2 ypg
Rushing offense: 157.3 ypg
Rushing defense: 122.5 ypg
Turnover margin: +14
Key players: QB Brock Jensen (69.8%, 1994 yds, 11 TD, 2 INT), RB Sam Ojuri (132-781, 71.0 ypg, 5.9 ypc, 8 TD), RB D.J. McNorton (140-681, 68.1 ypg, 4.9 ypc, 11 TD), WR Warren Holloway (55-746, 67.8 ypg, 13.6 ypc, 6 TD), K Ryan Jastrum (12-14, long 49), DB/KR Marcus Williams (7 INT, 3 TD; 7-302 KR, 43.1 ypr, 1 TD), DE Coulter Boyer (7 sacks, 10 TFL)
Other notes: You look at the stats and you see a good team with a strong defense, but still wonder how they went 10-1 and nearly outscored their opponents by 20 points a game. Two words: red zone. NDSU scored on 91% of their trips, and came away with touchdowns 2/3 of the time. Their opponents failed to score at all a quarter of the time, and only got six half the time. That, and a strong turnover margin, have been the key.
Jon’s Prediction:
North Dakota State 27, James Madison 10. The Dukes have enough defense to keep the Bison from going crazy, but not enough offense to pose a serious threat.