One team is definitely in the playoffs; at least one more will join them this week, and possibly as many as five others.
Automatic playoff bids already claimed:
Southland Conference: Sam Houston State
Key games this week:
bold indicates team will claim their conference’s autobid with a win.
bold italics indicates team can claim their conference’s autobid with a win, depending on other outcomes.
5-4 Youngstown State at #1 North Dakota State (Missouri Valley)
#4 Georgia Southern at #9 Wofford (Southern)
8-2 Georgetown at #6 Lehigh (Patriot)
#7 New Hampshire at #12 Towson (Colonial)
5-4 Massachusetts at #13 Maine
5-3 Pennsylvania at #18 Harvard (Ivy; no autobid, just conference title)
#21 Jackson State at 7-2 Alabama A&M (SWAC East)
#22 Norfolk State at Morgan State (Mid-Eastern)
3-6 Southern at #23 Alabama State (SWAC East)
5-3 Tennessee Tech at #25 Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley)
6-4 Dayton at 8-2 Drake (Pioneer; no autobid, just conference title)
4-5 Prairie View A&M at 3-5 Alcorn State (SWAC West)
I have composed a handy primer for playoff formats and guidelines, because we’re getting very very close to starting to hand out bids.
BIG SKY:
Eliminated: Northern Arizona, Idaho State, Northern Colorado, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Weber State, Portland State
Could go this week: nobody
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Montana State (clinched share of title)
Montana State secured at least a share of the title with a solid win over Weber State. Montana spanked D-II Western Oregon, setting up a huge game next week to settle the autobid. They’re both idle this week, though.
Portland State and Sacramento State should win this week; Northern Arizona/Weber is a tossup, as is the non-conference match between Eastern Washington and Cal Poly-SLO.
BIG SOUTH:
Eliminated: Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina, Presbyterian, Virginia Military, Gardner-Webb
Could go this week: nobody
CLINCH ALERT: Liberty (can clinch share of title with Stony Brook loss)
Liberty once again had some trouble dispatching a clearly inferior foe, but they pulled out the win over VMI with an onside kick recovery as time wound down. They’ll take the week off this week, but even a Stony Brook loss doesn’t settle matters. They’ll play next week, winner take all. If Stony Brook loses to Gardner-Webb, which is unlikely, Liberty will at least share the conference title.
Coastal Carolina should handle Charleston Southern, while I think VMI can get past Presbyterian based on their performance the last couple of weeks.
COLONIAL:
Ineligible: Massachusetts, Georgia State
Eliminated: Richmond, Villanova, William & Mary, Rhode Island, James Madison, Delaware
Could go this week: Old Dominion
CLINCH ALERT: New Hampshire or Towson (winner clinches share of title — and autobid, if Towson is the winner — if Maine loses)
Before getting to the important stuff, an interesting result from last week: incoming member Georgia State lost in overtime to Saint Francis (IL), and NAIA team. That’s significant as sort of a benchmark if you’re comparing divisions, and has basically pulled the NAIA’s computer rankings up as a whole. Just an interesting data point.
Towson regained a share of the conference lead by knocking off Maine, while New Hampshire remained in the mix by beating (and eliminating) James Madison. The combination also eliminated Delaware, because New Hampshire still has both Towson and Maine remaining; therefore, the conference champion cannot have three losses. Old Dominion was also eliminated from any chance of winning the autobid; they cannot win a tiebreaker at 6-2. The CAA recognizes co-champions, however, so they’re still alive for that, barely. If they lose this week, they’re done; if they win, they cannot be eliminated yet.
The possibilities for the autobid are still extremely complex, but there is one possibility that’s relevant for this week: If Towson beats New Hampshire and Maine loses to Massachusetts, Towson wins the autobid, as they’d hold every possible tiebreaker no matter who they end up tied with, having beaten every team that can end up in said tie. Other possibilities:
If New Hampshire and Maine both win, the winner of their game next week claims the autobid.
If Towson and Maine both win, a Towson win or Maine loss next week gives Towson the autobid; a Towson loss and Maine win gives it to Maine.
If New Hampshire wins and Maine loses, New Hampshire would claim the autobid next week with a win or a Towson loss. Should Towson and Maine win next week, there would be a three-way tie at 6-2 with each team having a win against the others; if Old Dominion is also involved, Towson wins the tiebreaker. If Old Dominion loses this week, however, the results of games involving Delaware and James Madison become relevant. If it matters, we’ll worry about that next week.
GREAT WEST:
Eliminated: Southern Utah, Cal-Davis
Could go this week: North Dakota
CONFERENCE CHAMPION Cal Poly-SLO (clinched share of title)
Cal-Davis upset Cal Poly, preventing the Mustangs from claiming the title outright.
This week, Cal-Davis could mess with someone else; an upset win over North Dakota would eliminate the Sioux, and leave the door open for Cal Poly to still win the title outright. If North Dakota wins, however, the winner of next week’s game between North and South Dakota will share the title. Cal Poly’s game this week is a toss-up; South Dakota should win easily, while Southern Utah’s almost certainly going to lose.
IVY:
Eliminated: Columbia, Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth
Could go this week: Yale, Pennsylvania, Brown
CLINCH ALERT: Harvard (can clinch title outright)
Brown hung in the race, and kicked Yale to the edge of the cliff. Penn’s win means they’re still in it too, for the moment, while Harvard kept Columbia winless while remaining perfect in the league.
Harvard will claim a share of the title with a win over Penn, which should be expected. That would eliminate Yale on the spot. Should Brown also lose to Dartmouth (not likely), Harvard would win the title outright. If Harvard loses to Penn, everything’s a big old mess, and we’ll go into that next week. Yale and Cornell should win easily.
MID-EASTERN:
Eliminated: Delaware State, North Carolina Central, Savannah State, North Carolina A&T, Hampton, Howard
Could go this week: South Carolina State, Morgan State, Florida A&M, Bethune-Cookman
CLINCH ALERT: Norfolk State (wins autobid, and conference title outright, with a win)
Norfolk crushed Savannah, and that combined with wins by Bethune-Cookman and Howard gave the Spartans a game-and-a-half lead over the field. They cannot secure the autobid if they lose this week, since they’re playing Morgan State (not to mention the fact that Bethune-Cookman, to whom they’ve also lost, has an almost certain win this week over Savannah State). That said, they should win and put the race to bed. If they lose, they’re going to need help. There are five teams that could finish at 6-2 if Norfolk loses, so we’ll just worry about that next week. Hampton and Florida A&M should also win, and probably South Carolina State as well though that’s less certain.
MISSOURI VALLEY:
Eliminated: Southern Illinois, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Western Illinois, Youngstown State, Indiana State
Could go this week: Illinois State
CLINCH ALERT: North Dakota State (would clinch outright title and autobid with a win)
Nothing weird happened, which means Youngstown and Indiana State are toast. Illinois State cannot win the autobid, as the best they can hope for is a three-way tie with NDSU and NIU which NDSU wins out on… but they do still have hope of that tie to at least claim a share of the title.
That’s not real likely, though, as NDSU should handle Youngstown with no problem, at which point they’ll clinch the autobid and a share of the title and eliminate Illinois State. Even with a loss, they’d still grab the autobid with a win or a UNI loss next week. Northern Iowa, who should beat Southern Utah in a non-conference game, would still have a chance to tie for the title, but would lose the tiebreaker at that point. Indiana State and South Dakota State should pick up wins, while Southern Illinois has a toss-up non-conference game against Eastern Illinois.
NORTHEAST:
Eliminated: Saint Francis (PA), Central Connecticut State, Wagner, Robert Morris (PA)
Could go this week: Sacred Heart, Monmouth (NJ), Bryant
CLINCH ALERT Albany, Duquesne (either could clinch a share of the title with a win and a loss by the other)
And the topsy-turvy mess that is the NEC continued bobbling around incoherently, as Bryant upset Albany. Wagner upset Sacred Heart, which was bad, but Sacred Heart’s still alive for a share of the title, although the autobid is out of reach.
And now… it’s spaghetti. This week, Albany and Duquesne should win, and they should both also win next week. Sacred Heart is the kicker here; they play both teams in the next two weeks. Bryant and Monmouth are both also still in the thick of things. Any of the two-loss teams are dead with a loss this week, of course, but things are so tangled that I’m not even going to try to unravel them right now, except to note that if either Albany or Duquesne lose while the other wins, the winner claims a share of the title. We’ll check back next week.
OHIO VALLEY:
Eliminated: Eastern Illinois, Southeast Missouri State, Austin Peay
Could go this week: Tennessee State, Murray State, Tennessee-Martin, Jacksonville State, Tennessee Tech
CLINCH ALERT: Eastern Kentucky (would clinch share of conference title with a win, and the autobid with a win and a UT-Martin loss)
I don’t think anyone but Eastern Kentucky actually wants to win this thing. The Colonels knocked off Jacksonville State while Tennessee Tech got pipped by Murray State. The two losers fell from the rankings, while EKU moved in at #25 and claimed sole possession of first place.
EKU can now clinch a share of the conference title with a win over Tennessee Tech this week. Should Tennessee-Martin also lose (unlikely), EKU would claim the autobid. Tech would win the autobid with wins this week and next. Because of the way things break down, it is actually possible for a six-way tie atop the standings at 5-3. The winner of the EKU/Tech game has the advantage in most tiebreaker scenarios, but as with so many other situations, we’ll cover that next week once we see if some of these teams tumble their way out of the race.
Oh, who should win this week. EKU really should, which would simplify matters a great deal. Martin should win, as should Murray and Jacksonville. Eastern Illinois has a toss-up non-conference game with Southern Illinois.
PATRIOT:
Ineligible: Fordham
Eliminated: Colgate, Lafayette, Holy Cross, Bucknell
Could go this week: Georgetown
CLINCH ALERT: Lehigh (would clinch outright conference title and autobid with a win), Georgetown (would clinch share of conference title and autobid with a win)
Lehigh and Georgetown took care of business, while Lafayette pulled off the rare feat of winning an overtime game by 13 points after scoring on their own possession, then returning an interception for a touchdown on Colgate’s ensuing chance.
It’s all down to Lehigh and Georgetown for the autobid. If Lehigh wins (and with all due respect to Georgetown’s fine season, they should), they’ll claim the title outright. If Georgetown wins, they’ll get the bid and a share of the title pending the outcome of next week’s Lehigh/Lafayette game.
Bucknell should deal with Fordham, while Lafayette/Holy Cross seems to be a toss-up.
PIONEER:
Eliminated: Valparaiso, Davidson, Morehead State, Marist, Butler, Dayton
Could go this week: Campbell, Jacksonville, San Diego
CLINCH ALERT: Drake (can clinch share of title with win, outright title with win and help)
Everything went as predicted last week, leaving us a muddle. Drake can claim a share of the title with a win (likely); should both San Diego and Jacksonville lose (neither likely), they’d win it outright. Campbell should win, which would keep them alive should Drake stumble.
SOUTHERN:
Eliminated: Western Carolina, Citadel, Tennessee-Chattanooga, Elon, Samford
Could go this week: Appalachian State, Furman, Wofford
CLINCH ALERT: Georgia Southern (would clinch outright title and autobid with win); Wofford (would clinch share of title and autobid with win and Furman loss)
Furman handed Appalachian State a devastating upset loss, which eliminated ASU from the autobid picture thanks to Georgia Southern and Wofford holding serve.
Georgia Southern tees off against Wofford with the title on the line this week. If the Eagles win, the race is over, and they’re the outright SoCon champion. If Wofford wins, they claim a share of the title, and would win the autobid with either a win over Chattanooga next week or a Furman loss to Elon this week. The former is likely, the latter isn’t. Furman needs to win while Wofford beats GSU and then loses to Chattanooga; Furman would have the tiebreak advantage in a 6-2 lockup. Appalachian should win this week, which would keep their hopes of at least sharing the title alive should Wofford win. Samford/Citadel? Your guess is as good as mine.
SOUTHLAND:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Sam Houston State (clinched share of title)
Sam Houston took care of business and clinched the first playoff bid of the year with a thumping of Southeastern Louisiana. Central Arkansas finished their conference season at 6-1 with a big win over Northwestern State, and can claim a share of the title should Sam Houston lose to Northwestern this week. Lamar, McNeese, UCA, and Stephen F. Austin should all pick up wins this week.
SOUTHWESTERN:
Eliminated (East): Mississippi Valley State, Alcorn State
Eliminated (West): Texas Southern
Could go this week (East): Jackson State, Alabama A&M
Could go this week (West): Southern, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling State
CLINCH ALERT (East): Alabama State (can clinch title with win and Alabama A&M loss); Alabama A&M (can clinch title with win and Alabama State loss)
CLINCH ALERT (West): Prairie View A&M (can clinch title with win and Grambling, UAPB, and Southern all losing)
Grambling upended Jackson State, which served to help clear up the mess in the east. In the west, everything’s still a wreck, partially for that same reason.
Jackson State at Alabama A&M is key. If Jackson wins, Alabama State will clinch the east with a win. If A&M wins and Alabama State loses, A&M clinches the east. If Jackson wins and Alabama State loses… well, Alabama State losing is a very, very long shot, so we’ll worry about that if it happens.
If Prairie View were to win while Grambling, Pine Bluff, and Southern all lose… Prairie View would clinch the West. Outside of that, it’s entirely possible we end this week with a four-way tie at 4-4, so it’s not worth going into yet.
INDEPENDENT:
South Alabama secured a winning record with their thrashing of Mississippi Valley State. They’re off this week before finishing the year against Cal Poly-SLO next week.