For the second time this year, #1 Saint Xavier will face off against the #2 team in the country. Ottawa secured at least a share of the KCAC title, and a playoff berth provided they remain in the top 20 of the rankings.
Conference champions determined thus far:
Dakota Athletic Conference (no auto-bid): Valley City State
Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference: Ottawa
bold indicates team will claim at least a share of their conference title, as well as securing all tiebreakers, with a win.
bold italics indicates team can claim at least a share of their conference title, as well as securing all tiebreakers, with a win and other results.
italics indicates team will claim a share of the title, but not the automatic bid consideration, with a win.
#1 Saint Xavier at #2 Marian (Mid-States Mideast)
2-7 Montana Tech at #3 Carroll (MT) (Frontier)
6-2 Lindsey Wilson at #4 Georgetown (KY) (Mid-South East)
#6 Morningside at 4-5 Concordia (NE) (Great Plains)
#8 William Penn at #12 Saint Ambrose (Mid-States Midwest)
#10 Azusa Pacific at Menlo (Independent bid would be assured)
#14 Cumberland (TN) at 4-5 Belhaven (Mid-South West)
0-9 Texas College at #19 Langston (Central States)
5-3 Hastings at #20 Morningside
I have composed a handy primer for playoff formats and guidelines, because we’re getting very very close to starting to hand out bids.
CENTRAL STATES:
Eliminated: Southwestern Assemblies of God, Texas College, Northwestern Oklahoma State
Could go this week: Southern Nazarene, Bacone
CLINCH ALERT: Langston
Last week was as expected, and since both Bacone and Southern Nazarene won, NW Oklahoma is gone.
This week, the first item on the agenda is the Bacone/Southern Nazarene game. SNU should win; the loser is eliminated. However, if Bacone wins, both teams are realistically done and Langston wins the conference title, because there’s just no way in hell Langston’s losing to Texas College. If both Langston and SNU win, their game next week will decide the conference champion for purposes of the post-season. Northwestern should handle Panhandle State in a “non”-conference game.
DAKOTA:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Valley City State
Valley City won and picked up another spot in the poll, but that’s still probably not enough yet. They’re going to need to keep winning to ensure themselves a ticket to the playoffs, or hope borderline conference champions creep into the top 16 themselves. Jamestown is idle, and all three other teams have non-conference games this week; all should win.
FRONTIER:
Eliminated: Montana Tech, Montana Western, Montana State-Northern, Rocky Mountain
Could go this week: Eastern Oregon
CLINCH ALERT: Carroll (MT)
It’s down to Carroll and Eastern Oregon now. Both teams should win this week, which would give Carroll a share of the title, but no guarantee of the automatic bid. Should EOU lose while Carroll wins, that would take care of it. Next week is more important, as both teams will still be expected to win, but the chances of an upset occurring are higher. Should EOU and Carroll tie, I do not know what the tiebreaker would be, since they split their two games. Most normal tiebreak scenarios at this point would favor Carroll, with the exception of the Rose Bowl Rule. The final game this week is Rocky Mountain at MSU-Northern. Rocky should win.
Another piece of news I wasn’t aware of until today: Dickinson State will be joining the league next year along with Southern Oregon. Jamestown also applied, but the vote’s been tabled.
GREAT PLAINS:
Eliminated: Dordt, Briar Cliff, Midland, Concordia (NE), Nebraska Wesleyan, Hastings, Dakota Wesleyan
Could go this week: Doane, Northwestern (IA)
CLINCH ALERT: Morningside
There are six different ways that a 6-3 tie can occur now. However, in every single one of those scenarios Morningside wins the tiebreakers, and that is why Nebraska Wesleyan, Hastings, and Dakota Wesleyan are done.
So: Morningside should win and clinch a share of the title, as well as all relevant tiebreakers since they’ve beaten both Northwestern and Doane. A Morningside loss keeps either or both of those two teams alive assuming they win (Doane almost certainly will, while Northwestern should but could be upset). These three teams are the only ones that can end up 7-2 (or better). Should Doane and Northwestern finish 7-2 while Morningside loses twice, Doane wins the tiebreak. In the remaining games on this week’s schedule, Midland and Dakota Wesleyan should pick up victories.
HEART OF AMERICA:
Eliminated: Culver-Stockton, Graceland, Avila, Peru State, Evangel
Could go this week: Central Methodist, Baker
This is not pretty. We’re steamrolling toward an 8-1 three way tie here, and only speed bumps stand in the way. The tiebreak in the HAAC is final NAIA poll ranking, so it’s all going to be a question of if and when anyone loses. There’s an outside chance of Baker upsetting Benedictine this week, or of Central Methodist doing the same to Missouri Valley next week, but realistically all three leaders should win out. If ANY of the three win this week, Central Methodist and Baker are finished.
Neither Central Methodist or Culver-Stockton should expect non-conference wins this week, and Avila and Graceland are both so bad there’s no telling what will happen in their matchup.
KANSAS:
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Ottawa (clinched share of title and automatic bid pending ranking)
Ottawa took the battle for first place from Bethany last week, essentially settling matters in the conference. Even if Ottawa fails to clinch the outright title this week (a win or a Bethany loss does it), next week they have the worst team in the conference teed up. This week, Ottawa, Bethany, Southwestern, and Saint Mary should all win. McPherson ought to get past Kansas Wesleyan, but that’s a dicey one.
MID-SOUTH:
Eliminated (East): Pikeville, Kentucky Christian, Virginia-Wise, Campbellsville
Eliminated (West): Faulkner, Union (KY), Belhaven
Could go this week (East): Lindsey Wilson
Could go this week (West): Shorter, Cumberlands (KY), Bethel (TN)
CLINCH ALERT: Cumberland (TN) (West), Georgetown (KY) (East)
Georgetown, already in possession of a share of the East title, can clinch it outright (and, given their ranking, an almost certain playoff bid) with a win over Lindsey Wilson, which is extremely likely. Should Georgetown lose, Lindsey Wilson could claim a share of the title with a win next week, but since I don’t know the Mid-South tiebreaking rules, it may not even matter. Georgetown’s going to the playoffs regardless unless they completely face-plant, while Lindsey Wilson would have to get into the top 20 to matter even with a title in hand. The other games in the East: Pikeville should win, UVA-Wise/Campbellsville is a toss-up, and Kentucky Christian is going to lose to…
Bethel can’t hurt themselves this week, but Cumberland can certainly hurt them. Cumberland will clinch a share of the West with an almost certain win over Belhaven, and would take it outright should Bethel be upset. Neither team can afford to lose a game regardless of the division race, as they’ll risk falling out of the top 20. In other West games, Cumberlands should handle Faulkner, and Shorter should win at Union.
MID-STATES:
Eliminated (Mideast): Concordia (MI), Quincy, Saint Francis (IN), Taylor
Eliminated (Midwest): Waldorf, Trinity International, Olivet Nazarene, Iowa Wesleyan
Could go this week (Mideast): Marian, Saint Xavier
Could go this week (Midwest): Grand View, William Penn
CLINCH ALERT (Mideast): Saint Xavier, Marian (winner wins outright title)
CLINCH ALERT (Midwest): Saint Ambrose (will claim share of title with win)
Mideast: #1 Saint Xavier. #2 Marian. Winner takes it all. In other games, Saint Francis (IN), Walsh, and Malone should win.
Midwest: Far more complicated. Saint Ambrose would eliminate William Penn and claim a share of the title with a win, but that’s a tossup. Grand View would be eliminated should they lose and Saint Ambrose win, but Grand View’s probably not going to lose. Saint Francis (IL) has a weird game against FCS Georgia State, and I’m really not sure what the hell’s going to happen there, but it also doesn’t matter one whit to the proceedings. It’s all shaping up to be a big mess unless Saint Ambrose wins, and even then next week is rife with possibilities.
INDEPENDENTS:
Azusa is back in decent shape, moving into the top 10 after a comprehensive win over Southern Oregon. They conclude their season this week at Menlo; a win would assure them of a playoff bid. A loss may not doom them, depending on how far they fall, but they’d just as soon avoid testing the theory, thanks.