Because I’m late with this, I get to announce that the first spot in this year’s playoff field has been filled. Congratulations to Saint Scholastica on their Upper Midwest Athletic Conference championship and their impending trip to the post-season (the league’s first playoff representative).
Big games this week (bold indicates team will win conference title and autobid — or divisional title and not autobid, as noted — with a win; italics means they can do so):
Friday night: 8-0 Saint Scholastica 70, Presentation 20 – Saint Scholastica wins UMAC title and autobid
Saturday:
1-6 Gustavus Adolphus at #3 Saint Thomas (MN)
#11 Salisbury at #7 Wesley (DE)
#8 Thomas More at 5-2 Westminster (PA)
5-2 Ursinus at #14 Johns Hopkins
5-2 Rowan at #18 Kean
6-2 Central (IA) at 5-2 Wartburg
4-3 Albion at 7-0 Adrian
6-1 Lycoming at 5-2 Lebanon Valley
7-1 Monmouth (IL) at 6-2 Carroll (WI)
1-6 Coast Guard at 5-2 Framingham State (NEFC Bogan Division)
8-0 Endicott at 7-1 Western New England (NEFC Boyd Division)
6-0 Lewis & Clark at 4-2 Pacific Lutheran
5-2 Chicago at 6-1 Case Western
The weekly recaps are going to be missing game details from here on out, unless something truly special happened and I happened to catch it. This is because I’ve been brought on as a contributing author at Bring on the Cats, the Kansas State Wildcats blog at SBNation, and that’s going to have to take priority. Unfortunately, the “mining press releases for neat stat tidbits and game story notes” is by far the most crushing and time-consuming aspect of the process of writing these recaps. In order to at least keep you abreast of the progress of conference races, that’s just going to have to be sacrificed.
(When the playoffs roll around, we should get back to more details. No worries there.)
I have composed a handy primer for playoff formats and guidelines, because we’re getting very very close to starting to hand out bids.
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST:
Eliminated: Sul Ross State, Howard Payne, East Texas Baptist
Could go this week: Mississippi College, Hardin-Simmons, Texas Lutheran
Mary Hardin-Baylor knocked ETBU out of the race once and for all, while Louisiana rolled and Hardin-Simmons continued recovering from a horrible start to the season and remained alive… barely.
UMHB should have no trouble with Howard Payne; that result would eliminate Mississippi College and Hardin-Simmons, regardless of their own results. (Mississippi College should win; Hardin-Simmons probably will not, traveling to McMurry.) Louisiana will also win, most likely, at Texas Lutheran; that would knock TLU out of the picture as well.
CENTENNIAL:
Eliminated: Juniata, Moravian, McDaniel
Could go this week: Franklin & Marshall, Dickinson, Susquehanna, Muhlenberg, Gettysburg, Ursinus
CLINCH ALERT: Johns Hopkins
Last week, I said Johns Hopkins was facing their sternest test yet this season. They responded by scoring 83 points, so I think they’re pretty much unbeatable until the playoffs at this stage.
They’ve got a chance to win the conference’s autobid this week, and they won’t even need any help. A likely win at home over Ursinus would give them a two-game lead over Ursinus, as well as Gettysburg and Muhlenberg most likely, as they both should win. They’ve already beaten all three, and there are only two games left to play, so they’ve got all the tiebreakers in hand already. A Hopkins loss, on the other hand, messes things up pretty nicely. In the other games, Susquehanna and McDaniel should win.
CCIW:
Eliminated: North Park
Could go this week: Millikin, Carthage, Augustana (IL), Elmhurst
Illinois Wesleyan’s defense really did its job Saturday; holding North Central to 24 was a perfectly acceptable result. The problem was that IWU’s non-existent offense continued to not show up, and North Central took home a 24-0 shutout. With Wheaton’s easy win over Carthage, that really puts IWU on the outside looking in now, though there’s still every chance of a three-way tie when it’s all said and done.
We’re not going to get any closer to that possibility this week from North Central’s perspective, as they should dispatch Elmhurst easily. That result would immediately eliminate Millikin, Carthage, and Elmhurst. Augustana would also be eliminated with an expected loss to Wheaton. IWU should take down Millikin, which would eliminate them even if North Central loses. Carthage will probably win, which would keep them alive in the event of losses by both NCC and Wheaton, which is of course almost impossible.
EASTERN:
Eliminated: Husson, Anna Maria, Becker
Could go this week: Mount Ida, Castleton State, Gallaudet
The three teams still realistically in the race all won, although Maritime had a much harder time with Mount Ida than anyone should have expected. Castleton kept their faint hopes alive, but the win happened to be one of the narrowest losses in Anna Maria’s still winless history.
Norwich and Maritime will carry their unbeaten conference records into games against 0-7 teams, and there’s really no reason to suspect there’s any chance of either team being upset. With those two wins, everyone else except Gallaudet would be eliminated, and a loss to Castleton State would take care of that problem. I don’t see that happening, though. Most importantly, however, is that a Norwich win would place them at 6-0 in conference, with only one game remaining: next week at Maritime. As things stand right now, Norwich could clinch then; Maritime cannot, unless Gallaudet loses in the next eight days. In this week’s final game, Mount Ida should handle Becker.
EMPIRE 8:
Eliminated: Hartwick, Ithaca, Springfield, Alfred
Could go this week: Frostburg State, Utica
Alfred lost a wild double-overtime shootout with Frostburg, and both team’s survival coincided with the result after the leaders summarily executed their opposition. Utica stayed alove with a close win over Ithaca.
Salisbury and Wesley face off in their rivalry game, a non-conference clash of titans. It will have no impact on the Empire 8 race, but it’s going to have a serious impact on the question of whether the E8 gets two teams into the playoffs. I think Salisbury will win, but it’ll be tense.
As to the conference race, Saint John Fisher can and should eliminate Utica from the race with a win, and that would also knock Frostburg out as it would guarantee the E8 champion only has one loss. Should Utica upset Fisher, they’d still be alive, and so would Frostburg with a win at Ithaca (an iffy proposition). Springfield should handle Hartwick, and Alfred should pick up a non-conference win over Rochester in games now devoid of meaning.
HEARTLAND:
Eliminated: Earlham, Anderson, Manchester
Could go this week: Mount Saint Joseph, Rose-Hulman, Defiance, Bluffton
While Franklin sat idle, Hanover closed to within a game and the other three winners kept themselves alive. Franklin will win this week, which will eliminate MSJ and the loser of the Defiance/Rose-Hulman game (toss-up), as well as Bluffton should they lose to Hanover (expected). MSJ, who should get past Manchester, also is eliminated if Hanover wins even if Franklin loses.
IOWA:
Eliminated: Loras, Cornell (IA), Buena Vista
Could go this week: Luther, Wartburg, Simpson (IA), Coe
No surprises last week. The main driver here is Central, who I expect to beat Wartburg though an upset is not even remotely out of the question here. If Central wins, everyone but Dubuque and Coe are toast, and even Coe is gone should they lose. (Simpson could join a four-way tie at 6-2, but are already dead on tiebreakers. Dubuque and Coe should both win also; if Dubuque wins and Central loses, everyone’s still toast except for the three leaders. There’s a potential three-way mess looming, but we won’t worry about that just yet. Suffice it to say that Coe plays Dubuque next week, which is why they’re still alive even if they stumble this week.
LIBERTY:
Eliminated: Merchant Marine, Worcester Tech, Saint Lawrence
Could go this week: Rochester, Union (NY)
Rochester can only win the title in a ridiculously complex set of circumstances, none of which should matter after this week anyway because Hobart is going to hammer Worcester Tech. If that happens, and Rensselaer beats Union, Union is gone because they’ve already lost to Hobart, who RPI plays next week. The RPI/Union game is a toss-up. Rochester is probably going to lose non-con to Alfred.
MICHIGAN:
(standings reflect Friday night’s game)
Eliminated: Kalamazoo, Alma
Could go this week: Olivet, Trine, Adrian
CLINCH ALERT: Albion
Hope pretty much put an end to Trine’s recent domination of the league, while Adrian remains unbeaten and unappreciated.
Hope will remain alive thanks to a thrilling matchup with their sofas this weekend while Albion and Adrian face off for the lead. A month ago, Adrian would have been an easy pick; now, not so much. I still think they’ll squeak by. An Adrian win would actually keep the winner of the Trine/Olivet game (uh, Trine’s winning, just so we’re clear) alive; if Albion wins, not only are they both gone, Albion claims the automatic bid as they’ll have wins over both teams that they could at worst end up tied with. Kalamazoo handled Alma on Friday night.
MIDDLE ATLANTIC:
Eliminated: FDU-Florham, Stevenson, King’s (PA), Wilkes, Albright
Could go this week: Lebanon Valley
Widener took their place among the leading pack, knocking Lebanon Valley off in a shootout, while DelVal and Lycoming cruised. Albright ended their skid, but were still taken off the board when DelVal won.
DelVal is idle this week and has yet to face Lycoming or Widener, which means the only team in the chase pack at risk is Lebanon Valley, who probably will fall off the peloton with a loss to Lycoming. Widener should win, but do need to be on guard against Albright. Wilkes and Stevenson should win as well.
MIDWEST:
Eliminated: Knox, Lawrence, Beloit, Lake Forest, Ripon, Grinnell, Saint Norbert
Could go this week: Carroll (WI), Illinois College
CLINCH ALERT: Monmouth (IL)
Everything went as planned last week, which sets Monmouth up to potentially claim the title. In fact, they really already have it in hand for all intents and purposes, as they finish against Knox next week, but we deal in certainties here. A Monmouth win over Carroll secures the title regardless, as Monmouth holds the tiebreaker over Illinois College, and thus it won’t matter if they faceplant against Knox. A Carroll win creates the possibility for a tie at the top, should Monmouth lose next week as well. Carroll would obviously then win a two-way tie, but only a two-way tie. Any other tie at 7-2 favors Monmouth, ultimately (which is why Saint Norbert is already eliminated).
MINNESOTA:
Eliminated: Hamline, Gustavus Adolphus, Carleton, Saint John’s (MN), Augsburg, Bethel (MN)
Could go this week: Concordia-Moorhead, Saint Olaf
CLINCH ALERT: Saint Thomas (MN)
Last week was an exercise in normality. This week, Saint Thomas should win, and that would secure the automatic bid (although not the outright conference title). Saint Olaf will also have no problem with hapless Hamline, but the game in hand does not help them here. Should Concordia lose to Bethel, which I expect, they’re done no matter what; indeed, their only hope is to win out (which includes defeating Saint Olaf) while Saint Olaf wins their remaining two games and Saint Thomas loses theirs, setting up a three-way tie at 6-2. Since the probability of Saint Thomas losing this week is remote, we won’t worry about that just yet. Saint John’s and Augsburg should win this week, also.
NEW ENGLAND:
Eliminated: Nichols, MIT, Coast Guard, Fitchburg State, Plymouth State, Westfield State, Curry, Maine Maritime, Massachusetts-Dartmouth, Salve Regina, Massachusetts Maritime, Bridgewater State
Could go this week: Worcester State, Western New England, Endicott
CLINCH ALERT: Western New England, Endicott (Boyd Division), Framingham State (Bogan Division)
Both divisions could be decided by dinner time Saturday. A Framingham State win (probable) or a Worcester State loss (unlikely) hands Framingham the Bogan Division title. Mass Maritime and Bridgewater State should take the other two games in the Bogan. In the Boyd Division, the winner of the Endicott/Western New England game wins the title, period. Salve Regina should win; the other two games are toss-ups.
NESCAC:
Eliminated: Tufts, Colby, Middlebury, Hamilton, Bowdoin, Bates
Could go this week: Williams, Wesleyan (CT)
Amherst won a big victory over Wesleyan, which puts the conference race in position to end next week. This week, every game but one impacts the race, that being Bates at Colby. Bates should win there. Amherst and Trinity should both win this week. That, in itself, would eliminate both Williams and Wesleyan, since Amherst plays Trinity next week and thus one of the two could finish no worse than 7-1. Williams and Wesleyan should also both win; if either lose, they’d be gone unless both Amherst and Trinity lose.
NEW JERSEY:
Eliminated: Western Connecticut State, Morrisville State, William Paterson, Brockport State, Buffalo State
Could go this week: Cortland State, College of New Jersey
College of New Jersey completely turned things upside down by upsetting Montclair State, while everything else went to order.
This week, Rowan visits Kean in a game that could go either way. Montclair is absolutely not going to lose this week, and the upshot of this is that since Montclair still has to play both Kean and Rowan, the winner of the conference title can finish no worse than 7-2, assuming Montclair handles things this week. That means that the loser of the Cortland/CoNJ game is gone. Even with a win, Cortland is gone if Montclair and Kean both win, as their two losses are to those two teams.
NORTH COAST:
Eliminated: Kenyon, Ohio Wesleyan, Hiram, Wooster, Oberlin, Denison
Could go this week: Allegheny
Wabash will eliminate Allegheny with a win, which is probable. In the remaining games, all of which are irrelevant to the race… well, I don’t know who’s going to win any of them. It may be Kenyon’s last chance to get a win, though.
NORTHERN:
Eliminated: Rockford, Maranatha Baptist, Aurora
Could go this week: Wisconsin Lutheran
The top-heavy nature of the league as compared to the scheduling early in the season has a lot of teams still in position. Though only WLU is in danger this week, everything will shake out so that next week will be much clearer. Concordia (IL), Aurora, and Benedictine should win; WLU and Concordia (WI) is a toss-up.
NORTHWEST:
Eliminated: Puget Sound, Pacific (OR)
Could go this week: Whitworth, Willamette, Pacific Lutheran
Linfield plays NAIA Menlo this week, which prevents them from outdistancing anyone themselves. However, since they haven’t played Lewis & Clark yet, the worst record the conference champion can end up with is 5-1 if the Pioneers get past Pacific Lutheran this week, which is probable although not certain. That would eliminate both Whitworth and Pac Lutheran, regardless of Whitworth’s result this week. Whitworth, however, could then eliminate Willamette were they to be able to pull off an upset. The other game this week: someone will finally win a game, as Puget Sound vists Pacific.
OHIO:
Eliminated: Wilmington (OH), Otterbein, Marietta
Could go this week: Capital, Ohio Northern, Muskingum, John Carroll, Heidelberg
The first three teams on the “could go” list are “going”, because Mount Union’s inevitable win over Otterbein should take care of that. Heidelberg will survive another week, as they host Wilmington; John Carroll should with Capital visiting, but may trip. Ohio Northern and Baldwin-Wallace should win as well.
OLD DOMINION:
(standings reflect Friday night’s game)
Eliminated: Guilford, Emory & Henry, Catholic, Bridgewater, Randolph-Macon
Could go this week: nobody
Last night, Washington & Lee dispatched Catholic, which eliminated three teams from the race. The only challenger left is Hampden-Sydney, who shouldn’t have trouble with Guilford. Next week, Washington & Lee visits Hampden-Sydney, and the winner takes the autobid.
PRESIDENT’S:
Eliminated: Thiel, Grove City, Geneva, Bethany (WV), Saint Vincent
Could go this week: Washington & Jefferson, Waynesburg, Westminster (PA)
CLINCH ALERT: Thomas More
Thomas More only has one more conference game remaining after this week, which means a win over Westminster — which has to be presumed as the probable outcome — would eliminate Westminster. If Saint Vincent beats Waynesburg, which is less than likely, but not out of the realm of possibility, Thomas More would claim the conference title outright. Thomas More and Waynesburg both winning would set up a meeting next week for the championship. Geneva and Washington & Jefferson should also win this week.
SOUTHERN CAC:
Eliminated: Austin, Sewanee
Could go this week: Rhodes, Birmingham-Southern, Millsaps
Centre will almost certainly beat Millsaps, which would take care of eliminating Rhodes. Trinity will probably beat BSU, too, although less likely; both results together would leave the conference title up to Trinity and Centre. DePauw should handle Austin, while Sewanee and Rhodes is too close to call.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA:
Eliminated: Pomona-Pitzer, Whittier
Could go this week: La Verne, Occidental, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Redlands
CLINCH ALERT: Cal Lutheran
Cal Lutheran should win; that will take care of C-M-S, Occidental, and La Verne. Redlands should remain alive with a win over La Verne; a loss with a Cal Lutheran win, and Redlands is out of the picture and CLU wins the title.
UNIVERSITY:
Eliminated: nobody, since they haven’t even started conference play yet
Could go this week: nobody
Simple and to the point: Carnegie Mellon and Case Western should win, and the conference title won’t be settled until the final week.
UPPER MIDWEST:
(standings reflect Friday night’s games)
Eliminated: everyone
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Saint Scholastica
Saint Scholastica took care of everything last night, crushing Presentation and kicking six teams to the curb all at once to secure D-III’s first autobid of the year. Westminster, Greenville and Northwestern should win today.
USA SOUTH:
Eliminated: Greensboro, Methodist, Averett
Could go this week: North Carolina Wesleyan, Maryville (TN), Shenandoah
Christopher Newport should win. Ferrum and Shenandoah is kind of a toss-up. Just one of the two winning doesn’t eliminate anyone (in and of itself); both winning takes everyone else out of the race. The loser of the Maryville/NC Wesleyan game is gone regardless, and your guess is as good as mine, as is your guess on the Methodist/Averett game.
WISCONSIN:
Eliminated: Wisconsin-River Falls, Wisconsin-La Crosse
Could go this week: Wisconsin-Stout, Wisconsin-Stevens Point, Wisconsin-Platteville, Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Whitewater’s going to win, of course, which will eliminate any of the two-loss teams that lose (including Stevens Point, Whitewater’s opponent). That means the loser of the Platteville-Eau Claire game is gone, which should be Platteville; Stout is probably safe for the moment, as they visit winless River Falls. Oshkosh should also win over La Crosse, staying firmly in the hunt for now.
INDEPENDENTS:
Wesley’s hopes of claiming the Pool B playoff bid may still survive a loss this week to Salisbury, but Huntingdon’s right on their heels as is the winner of the Chicago/Case Western game.