Both divisions of the GLIAC race went HAM on us, while everywhere else things are steaming toward some sort of resolution.
#5 North Alabama at #23 West Alabama
#6 Minnesota-Duluth at #11 Saint Cloud State
#13 New Haven at 5-2 Merrimack
5-2 Saginaw Valley State at #15 Wayne State (MI)
#24 California (PA) at 5-2 Indiana (PA)
6-2 Indianapolis at 5-3 Ferris State
5-3 Findlay at 5-3 Ashland
5-3 Missouri S&T at 5-3 Urbana (GLFC title on the line)
5-3 Augustana (SD) at 6-2 Minnesota State-Mankato
5-3 Miles at 6-2 Stillman (de facto SIAC West title game)
I have composed a handy primer for playoff formats and guidelines, because we’re getting very very close to starting to hand out bids.
The first Super Regional rankings of the year are out, and this is what the NCAA uses to determine the playoff field. I’ll note which teams are ranked in their Super Regional poll for each conference. At the end of the recap, I’ll also note who’d make the playoffs and what the pairings should be if the season ended today.
Important note:
The weekly recaps are going to be missing game details from here on out, unless something truly special happened and I happened to catch it. This is because I’ve been brought on as a contributing author at Bring on the Cats, the Kansas State Wildcats blog at SBNation, and that’s going to have to take priority. Unfortunately, the “mining press releases for neat stat tidbits and game story notes” is by far the most crushing and time-consuming aspect of the process of writing these recaps. In order to at least keep you abreast of the progress of conference races, that’s just going to have to be sacrificed.
(When the playoffs roll around, we should get back to more details. No worries there.)
CENTRAL:
SUPER REGION 1 – #4 Winston-Salem State, #5 Elizabeth City State
Eliminated: Livingstone, Chowan, Lincoln (PA), Shaw, Saint Augustine’s, Virginia Union, Bowie State, Fayetteville State, Johnson C. Smith
Could go this week: Virginia State
In other words, CLINCH ALERT: Elizabeth City State (North Division)
Because the CIAA has a championship game, tiebreakers are relevant here.
Winston-Salem, of course, has already clinched the South Division title. Elizabeth City State took care of Bowie State last week, putting themselves in position to clinch this week should they beat Chowan (likely) or should Virginia Union defeat Virginia State (toss-up). If Elizabeth City loses and Virginia State wins, there’s a possible three-way tie at 4-3 in the North Division, which Virginia State would win by virtue of wins over both Bowie and Elizabeth City. That would require Elizabeth City to lose to Lincoln next week, though, and the thought of ECSU losing to both Chowan AND Lincoln is preposterous. But it is possible, so here we are. Virginia Union and Bowie State, if you’re wondering, are eliminated because they cannot win any potential tiebreak at 4-3; Elizabeth City beat both Bowie and Virginia Union.
GREAT AMERICAN:
SUPER REGION 4 – #8 Ouachita Baptist
Eliminated: Southeastern Oklahoma State, Southwestern Oklahoma State
Could go this week: Arkansas Tech, Arkansas-Monticello, Southern Arkansas, East Central
Ouachita survived an offensive showdown with Southern Arkansas to remain atop the standings, and Henderson escaped an overtime brawl with East Central in which the winner would remain hot on Ouachita’s heels. Harding remains in the hunt as well after curbstomping SW Oklahoma.
It’s important to note that due to the haste in which this conference was constituted this year, schedules could not be rationalized; not everyone is playing a full eight-game schedule. The winner of the conference title this year will be the team with the best winning percentage, regardless of games played. This works out to Ouachita’s advantage even should they lose to Harding this week (and I think they will), as they’re playing seven conference games to Harding’s six; 6-1 is better than 5-1. It works out even worse for Henderson State, as they’re only playing five; their only remaining conference game is the crosstown showdown with Ouachita on November 12. Henderson needs the winner of the Harding/Ouachita game to lose one more game, and that doesn’t include Henderson’s game against Ouachita.
GREAT LAKES IAC:
SUPER REGION 3 – #4 Wayne State (MI), #6 Hillsdale, #7 Indianapolis, #8 Saginaw Valley State, #9 Ashland
Eliminated: Tiffin, Lake Erie, Northwood (MI), Northern Michigan, Ohio Dominican
Could go this week: Michigan Tech, Grand Valley State, Ferris State
After being upset by Ashland, Wayne State needed overtime to escape Hillsdale last weekend. Coupled with Ashland losing to Saginaw Valley, Wayne returns to their position of control, though that tiebreaker with Ashland could loom large, especially after this weekend when Wayne hosts Saginaw Valley. Wayne should win, but that’s not a sure thing. Findlay travels to Ashland, and the Oilers have quite the winning streak going after an 0-3 start. Ashland should still win, though, but the loss would not yet eliminate Findlay; they still have Wayne and Hillsdale to come, and would still be in line for a tie for the division crown. Hillsdale, for their part, should remain in place as they host Northwood.
In the North, Indianapolis can eliminate Ferris State… but the game is a toss-up, so don’t hold your breath. Grand Valley should remain alive by the skin of their teeth with a win over Michigan Tech; a loss, plus wins by both Indianapolis and Saginaw, would wipe the Lakers out.
GREAT LAKES FOOTBALL:
SUPER REGION 3 – nobody ranked
Eliminated: Kentucky Wesleyan
Could go this week: Saint Joseph’s (IN), Missouri S&T
CLINCH ALERT: Urbana
Urbana hosts Missouri S&T with the conference title directly on the line. An Urbana win means the title, as they’ll have run the table. If MUST wins, they’ll still have to beat Saint Joseph’s next week, or there will be a three-way tie. That said, MUST is almost certainly going to beat Saint Joseph’s next week, so this week’s game really decides the matter.
GREAT NORTHWEST:
SUPER REGION 4 – #9 Humboldt State
Eliminated: Simon Fraser, Dixie State
Could go this week: Central Washington
Western Oregon upset previously-unbeaten Humboldt State last week, taking over the conference lead. That didn’t really have any impact on anyone else, however, as Dixie and Fraser were toast regardless of the result. This week, Western hosts Dixie and Humboldt hosts Fraser; both leaders should win, which would have the effect of shaking Central Washington (visiting West Texas A&M in a non-conference game I don’t expect them to win) out of the race. Barring unseemly upsets at the hands of the conference cellar-dwellers, the title rests on the season finale rematch between Western and Humboldt, at Humboldt.
GULF SOUTH:
SUPER REGION 2 – #1 Delta State, #2 North Alabama, #3 Valdosta State, #7 West Alabama
Eliminated: nobody
Could go this week: nobody
West Alabama handled West Georgia on Thursday, while Delta State narrowly escaped Valdosta in a huge game Saturday. This week, Delta State is idle, meaning nobody will have three conference wins and nobody will have three conference losses. That means everyone will still be alive. North Alabama and Valdosta should be the winners this week.
LONE STAR:
SUPER REGION 4 – #1 Midwestern State, #5 Abilene Christian, #6 West Texas A&M
Eliminated: Texas A&M-Commerce, Eastern New Mexico, Angelo State, Incarnate Word, Texas A&M-Kingsville, Tarleton State
Could go this week: nobody
Midwestern State absolutely destroyed Abilene Christian Saturday, taking full control of the conference race. Tarleton State upset Texas A&M-Kingsville, which eliminated the Javelinas a week earlier than they otherwise would have been.
The three leaders should all win this week, with Midwestern and Abilene facing punching bags in conference and West Texas A&M hosting Central Washington in a non-conference match. It’s next week, when WTAMU visits Midwestern, that things should really get decided one way or another. The Lone Star Conference doesn’t break ties for football, so we could have a three-way split for the title.
The Lone Star is potentially going to get hammered by the “earned access” rule unless some things change, as Ouachita Baptist and Humboldt State are poised to steal the #5 and #6 seeds, which would leave Abilene and West Texas home if the playoffs started today. There is some respite, as Pittsburg State is liable to knock Washburn below the two in a couple of weeks.
MID-AMERICA:
SUPER REGION 4 – #2 Pittsburg State, #3 Northwest Missouri State, #4 Washburn, #7 Missouri Western, #10 Central Missouri
Eliminated: Lincoln (MO), Truman, Emporia State, Fort Hays State, Missouri Southern, Central Missouri
Could go this week: nobody
Northwest pummeled Washburn last weekend, giving Pittsburg State a game-and-a-half lead as they easily handled Central Missouri. The Gorillas are off this week, though, giving both chasers a chance to close in again. They both should, without any difficulty, but it’s important to note that a Washburn loss would hand Pittsburg a share of the title, and a Northwest Missouri loss would prevent them from any chance at the outright title. Missouri Western has an outside shot at tying for the title, but that’s a slim hope.
NORTHEAST TEN:
SUPER REGION 1 – #1 New Haven, #7 Southern Connecticut State
Eliminated: Pace, Saint Anselm, Stonehill
Could go this week: Assumption, American International, Bentley
The only oddity Saturday was Saint Anselm’s win over Pace, which got Anselm off the winless pile. Southern Connecticut squeaked one out over American International, putting them on life support; New Haven did the same to Bentley, while Merrimack eliminated Stonehill.
The three teams with three losses are in dire straits now. A New Haven win would eliminate them all, but that’s not necessarily a sure thing as they visit Merrimack. The problem is that a Southern Connecticut State win also eliminated them all, and they’re hosting Stonehill. Cue doom music. Should Merrimack get past New Haven, the top three will be tangled like spaghetti. A New Haven win would put Merrimack on the edge, but they’d still barely be alive for a share of the title.
NORTHERN SUN:
SUPER REGION 3 – #3 Minnesota-Duluth, #5 Saint Cloud State, #10 Bemidji State
Eliminated (divisional title): Minnesota-Crookston, Upper Iowa, Concordia-Saint Paul
Could go this week (divisional title): Southwest Minnesota State, Wayne State (NE), Winona State, Northern State, Minnesota State-Moorhead, Bemidji State
Eliminated (conference title): Minnesota-Crookston, Northern State, Minnesota State-Moorhead, Upper Iowa, Concordia-Saint Paul, Southwest Minnesota State, Mary
Could go this week (conference title): Winona State
Wayne State’s slide continued, falling at the hands of South Division leading MSU-Mankato. Mary messed up Bemidji’s hopes in the North by routing them at home.
In both divisions, the leaders face off this week. For the most part, the teams at risk of being eliminated from the divisional races are hoping Augustana or Saint Cloud win, as that will prevent their elimination for the moment (assuming they themselves win this week). As for the conference race, SW Minnesota and Mary are eliminated precisely because Duluth visits Saint Cloud, meaning one of the two will have no more than three conference losses. That makes winning this week critical for Winona State if they want to remain in contention, although if both Duluth and Mankato win, they’re dead anyway. (Duluth plays Mankato on November 12, so one of them would at worst be 8-2 if both win Saturday.)
So, what’s going to happen? I think Mankato wins, leaving Augustana as their only challenger in the South. Duluth and Saint Cloud is a toss-up. Winona will already know by kickoff whether they have any hope left; if they do, they should cling to it with a win over SW Minnesota. Wayne State, Mary, Bemidji and Concordia should all win.
PENNSYLVANIA:
SUPER REGION 1 – #2 Bloomsburg, #6 Slippery Rock, #8 Kutztown, #9 Indiana, #10 Edinboro
Eliminated: East Stroudsburg, Cheyney, Lock Haven, Clarion, Mercyhurst, Millersville, Shippensburg, Gannon
Could go this week: West Chester, Long Island-C.W. Post, Edinboro, Indiana (PA), California (PA), Kutztown
CLINCH ALERT: Slippery Rock (Western Division), Bloomsburg (Eastern Division)
The PSAC uses tiebreakers to determine the participants in the State Game, which this year will match the top teams in each division on November 12 at the campus of the Eastern Division champion. (The November 12 schedule will be altered to accomodate this.) The elimination lists above are only concerned with that; some of the teams which might be “eliminated” this week could still officially tie for the division title.
Everything went according to form last week, leaving us with some interesting action this week. In the East, Bloomsburg can and should eliminate C.W. Post, while Kutztown should eliminate West Chester. That will set up a winner-take-all game next week at Kutztown. However, should Kutztown lose while Bloomsburg wins, it’s all over. Out West, thanks to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over every other still-relevant team, all Slippery Rock needs to do this week is beat Mercyhurst. They should. If they don’t, then they’d still win the division with a win next week over Gannon, no matter what else occurs. We’ll worry about other permutations, if they matter, next week.
The most likely outcome, then, will be a schedule change for November 12; Slippery Rock would visit Bloomsburg for the conference title, while Lock Haven would visit C.W. Post rather than their currently-scheduled trip to Bloomsburg.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN:
SUPER REGION 3 – #1 Colorado State-Pueblo, #2 Nebraska-Kearney
Eliminated: Western State, Fort Lewis, Colorado Mesa, New Mexico Highlands
Could go this week: Western New Mexico, Adams State, Chadron State, Colorado Mines
CSU-Pueblo stayed in charge with a comfortable win over Mesa, and Kearney handed New Mexico Highlands their fourth straight setback after a 4-0 start, keeping UNK in the race.
Pueblo shouldn’t have any trouble this week; neither should Kearney. Pueblo winning would eliminate Adams and WNMU. Colorado Mines should beat Adams, but a loss would send them packing as well. Chadron will remain notationally alive with a win over Fort Lewis.
SOUTH ATLANTIC:
SUPER REGION 2 – #4 Mars Hill, #10 Lenoir-Rhyne
Eliminated: Catawba
Could go this week: Tusculum, Carson-Newman, Brevard
Mars Hill could have been in position this week to get everyone but Wingate out of the picture, but were crushed by visiting Lenoir-Rhyne. Newberry eked out a one-point win over Tusculum which kept them alive for at least two more weeks, as they’re out of conference on Saturday. Wingate had a bit of a heart-stopping fireworks display with Catawba before emerging with a win and eliminating the Indians.
Regardless of what else happens, the loser of the Brevard/Carson-Newman game is gone. They both probably are, though, as a win by either Wingate or Mars Hill eliminates them, as well as Tusculum. Since Mars Hill plays Tusculum… well, I don’t know. Mars Hill is 4-1 in conference and has allowed as many points as they’ve scored. That’s not anything to build confidence. Wingate over Lenoir-Rhyne is not exactly a done deal either, so the conference race could be a massive cluster come Sunday, or it could be a three-team race. Catawba and Newberry should both lose out of conference.
SOUTHERN IAC:
SUPER REGION 2 – #6 Albany State, #8 Morehouse, #9 Stillman
Eliminated: Clark Atlanta, Lane, Benedict, Tuskegee, Kentucky State
Could go this week: Fort Valley State, Stillman, Miles, Morehouse
CLINCH ALERT: Stillman or Miles (West Division); Albany State (East Division)
Both divisional races are going to come down to the final week of conference play, mostly as a result of Fort Valley’s absolutely brutal and completely unexpected beatdown of West Division-leading Stillman last week. That sets up this week’s showdown between Stillman and Miles, in which Miles should really be favored. Winner wins the West. Morehouse and Albany State should continue walking in lockstep with wins over Fort Valley and Benedict, respectively. Unless both Morehouse and Albany lose, Fort Valley is finished. If Albany wins and Morehouse loses, Albany wins the East; if Morehouse wins and Albany loses, then Morehouse would win the title the following week with a win or an Albany loss; if Morehouse were to lose and Albany win next week, Albany would again take the title. Confused? Good!
The interesting thing here is that the SIAC championship game is November 12. Stillman has a game scheduled against Concordia (AL) that day, so something may have to give.
WEST VIRGINIA:
SUPER REGION 1 – #3 West Virginia Wesleyan
Eliminated: Seton Hill, West Liberty State, West Virginia State
Could go this week: Charleston (WV), Fairmont State
West Virginia Wesleyan kicked Glenville State out of the tie for first last week in a shootout. Shepherd remained in the picture with an easy win at WV State, and Fairmont clung to life by beating Seton Hill… not as soundly as they should have.
West Virginia Wesleyan is going to beat WV State barring divine intervention, so Charleston is done. Fairmont hosts Concord in a toss-up; Fairmont will be eliminated if they lose, while Concord will keep alive their hopes for a season-ending showdown with WVWU for the title (or a share of it). Shepherd’s idle, so they won’t be losing any ground; they’ll be in just as bad a shape as they are already. Glenville should handle Charleston to stay notationally involved.
INDEPENDENTS:
SUPER REGION 2 – #5 North Greenville
The important thing among the independents is that in the first regional rankings of the year, North Greenville currently sit at #5 in Super Region 2. That puts them in line for a playoff spot, and since all three SR2 conferences are currently represented in the top 6, they should be in decent shape to hold on — and may even move up to a safer position. They are the only independent with any chance whatsoever of getting into the playoff field at this stage, as apparently the ranking committee deems UNC-Pembroke’s equal record to be far less impressive; UNC-Pembroke is not in the SR2 top ten, while Lenoir-Rhyne (at 4-3) is at #10.
IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY:
SUPER REGION 1
#6 Slippery Rock at #3 West Virginia Wesleyan, winner at #2 Bloomsburg
#5 Elizabeth City State at #4 Winston-Salem State, winner at #1 New Haven
SUPER REGION 2
#6 Albany State at #3 Valdosta State, winner at #2 North Alabama
#5 North Greenville at #4 Mars Hill, winner at #1 Delta State
SUPER REGION 3
#6 Hillsdale at #3 Minnesota-Duluth, winner at #2 Nebraska-Kearney
#5 Saint Cloud State at #4 Wayne State (MI), winner at #1 Colorado State-Pueblo
SUPER REGION 4
#9 Humboldt State at #3 Northwest Missouri State, winner at #2 Pittsburg State
#8 Ouachita Baptist at #4 Washburn, winner at #1 Midwestern State
Super Region 4 is the only region currently where the “earned access” rule would take effect, and two teams (Ouachita and Humboldt) would slip into the field as a result.