A quarterback returns from injury and has a 400-yard, 5 TD day the week after his backup did the very same thing. The MEAC went topsy-turvy. A top five team bit the dust, and this week two more teams are going to as we get to witness two titanic showdowns. All the goodies after the jump.
#1 Georgia Southern at #5 Appalachian State
#2 Northern Iowa at #3 North Dakota State
#9 James Madison at #15 Old Dominion
#21 Delaware at #13 Towson
#25 Tennessee Tech at #14 Jacksonville State
#16 Alabama State at 5-2 Alabama A&M
4-2 Pennsylvania at 5-1 Brown
I have composed a handy primer for playoff formats and guidelines, because we’re getting very very close to starting to hand out bids.
BIG SKY:
Eliminated: Northern Arizona, Idaho State, Northern Colorado.
Could go this week: Sacramento State, Portland State, Eastern Washington, Weber State
Montana had some trouble making it 14 straight over Northern Arizona, as the Lumberjacks took a 14-0 lead, then went up 24-21 with 4:45 to go after Montana reeled them in. Then Peter Nguyen picked up 49 yards on the ensuing kickoff, followed by a 46-yard dash to the end zone by Jordan Canada, and that was that.
Sacramento State led 28-13, but then Bo Levi Mitchell and Nicholas Edwards went crazy, connecting for three TDs including one with 55 seconds to go. Sacto still had a shot, but Jason Diniz missed a 44-yard FG attempt as time expired, and then EWU prevailed in overtime.
Cody Kirk ran for 202 yards as Montana State remained perfect in conference, and retained their stranglehold on the lead. It’s looking more and more like Montana’s visit to Bozeman on the final week of the regular season will decide the Big Sky title, but by that time both team’s participation in the playoffs should be a foregone conclusion.
Montana State should have absolutely no trouble this week, and a win would immediately remove Sacramento State, Portland State, and Eastern Washington from the race. (The winner of the PSU/EWU game — which could go either way — will be two back with two to play, but both teams have already lost to both Montana and Montana State, and would thus lose all tiebreaks.) Montana should beat Weber State, but that conclusion is anything but foregone. A Montana win, however, would also eliminate Weber, assuming Montana State also wins. No telling what’s going to happen in Sacramento, and Northern Colorado’s going to get steamrolled by North Dakota in non-conference action.
BIG SOUTH:
Eliminated: Well, mathematically, nobody yet. In theory, each team is still individually capable of reaching 4-2, and we aren’t in a situation yet where any specific team HAS to finish with four wins.
Could go this week: Having said that, it’s also impossible for all seven teams to finish 3-3 now, so… Presbyterian, Coastal Carolina, Gardner-Webb, and Charleston Southern.
Gardner-Webb chewed up real estate, posting a 14-minute TOP advantage and outrushing Coastal 223-63, to grind out the win. It broke a seven-game losing streak to the Chants, the last five of which have all been within a touchdown.
Liberty jumped out to a 31-point halftime lead, then added insult to injury by returning the opening kickoff of the second half for a touchdown. Out came the starters, on went the cruise control. … VMI played tough in the first half, limiting Stony Brook to a 7-0 halftime lead, but the Seawolves ripped the Keydets to pieces in the second half for an easy win. … Presbyterian was mauled by #1 Georgia Southern in non-conference action, allowing 353 yards on the ground.
Liberty is a very likely winner at Presbyterian, which would immediately eliminate three teams from the race. VMI would be clinging to life only because they have yet to play Liberty, while Presbyterian, GWU, and Charleston Southern would be finished — the loser of GWU/CSU due to three losses, the winner of that game and Presbyterian due to tiebreakers. Coastal can cling to life by beating Stony Brook, but that’s still going to require a three-way tie at 4-2, which in turn requires Liberty to lose to both VMI and Stony Brook. I don’t think that matters, because I think Coastal isn’t going to beat the Seawolves; a loss and a Liberty win eliminates them. Gardner-Webb ought to beat CSU, while VMI is going to lose a non-conference matchup with The Citadel.
COLONIAL:
Ineligible: Massachusetts, Georgia State
Eliminated: Richmond, Villanova, William & Mary
Could go this week: Delaware, Rhode Island, Old Dominion
Towson and Maine meet next week, which is why William & Mary is already doomed, and Old Dominion could be eliminated Saturday.
Maine very nearly handed the keys to Towson, falling behind 16-0 to Richmond. They got on the board six seconds into the final quarter, but Richmond answered within two minutes to make it 22-7, and then the fun started. The PAT was blocked and returned for two points, turning what should have been a 23-7 lead into a 22-9 lead, and then Maine went to work. Holding the Spiders on defense, the Black Bears put together consecutive drives to score the final 14 points of the game and escaped with a one-point lead and their perfect conference record still intact.
Towson remained atop the standings along with Maine by scoring touchdowns on their first four drives and taking a 28-17 lead into the locker room. The teams were equal in the second half, and William & Mary simply couldn’t generate the comeback after Towson went up 35-17 late in the third.
Rhode Island stayed alive and put Delaware’s title hopes on life support with an upset win. The Rams got ahead, and held off a furious Blue Hens rally. … At Foxboro, New Hampshire never trailed, but also never quite put UMass away until eating the clock at the end of the game. … Old Dominion effectively kept Villanova out of the red zone, and that was the difference in a game much closer than the scoreboard indicated.
Maine should remain atop the standings, as they travel to Villanova; a Maine win eliminates Rhode Island regardless of any other activity. Towson hosts Delaware, and I think this will really be the “are they for real?” acid test. A win here would eliminate Delaware even if Maine loses. If both Towson and Maine win, Old Dominion is done; they might be anyway, since they host James Madison in a game I don’t expect them to win. Doing so would be a critical blow to the Dukes, however, who could then at best hope for Towson to win next week, then somehow end up in a tie with them. New Hampshire, at least, should have some security; they should expect to win this week, and remain in striking distance of the leaders.
GREAT WEST:
Eliminated: Southern Utah
Could go this week: North Dakota, Cal-Davis
Cal Poly threw a monkey wrench into everything, picking off three passes in the process of upending North Dakota. South Dakota joined the Mustangs atop the standings with a back-and-forth win over Cal-Davis. Southern Utah fell behind 14-3 in non-conference action at Weber State, but came back and outscored the Wildcats 32-14 in the second half. Austin Minefee racked up 286 all-purpose yards for the Thunderbirds — 88 on the ground, 86 receiving, and 112 on returns.
Southern Utah should avoid the winless conference record by taking down Cal-Davis (which would eliminate the Aggies), while North Dakota should handle Northern Colorado in a non-conference meeting between former North Central Conference foes. That leaves what could well be the battle for the conference title. Despite their records, despite South Dakota’s position in the polls, there is almost nothing to separate these two teams. A Cal Poly win would eliminate North Dakota, as it would prevent the possibility of a three-way tie at 3-1 since the Dakota schools still have to play one another, and North Dakota would lose a two-way tiebreak with Cal Poly. A South Dakota win, on the other hand, would keep that three-way tie possible, which leads to all sorts of goofy tiebreaker stuff we won’t get into this week. It would also eliminate Cal-Davis, even if the Aggies were to beat Southern Utah.
IVY:
Eliminated: Nobody yet.
Could go this week: Cornell, Columbia
Harvard’s senior QB Collier Winters went down with an injury in the season opening loss against Holy Cross. His replacement, junior Colton Chappell, filled in quite nicely, going 5-0 as a starter, and pitched a 400-yard games while tying the Harvard single game record with five TD passes last week (a feat only achieved once before by a Crimson QB). Winters was ready to come back, though, so he stepped in to face Princeton… and all he did was tie the record Chappell had set last week and threw for 403 yards himself. Cue “system quarterback” wankery, I guess.
Alex Thomas ran for 204 yards, but it wasn’t enough to prevent Yale from being upended by Penn. Columbia, facing their best opportunity to pick up a win so far, completely ganked it, getting hammered by Dartmouth.
Once again, Penn is involved in the league’s most important game of the week, this time a visit to Brown. I think Brown’s going to come out on top here, which will leave Harvard all alone at the top after they handle Dartmouth in the night game. Yale will easily join what I expect to be a three-way tie a game back of the Crimson, and Cornell/Princeton is a toss-up.
MID-EASTERN:
Eliminated: Delaware State, North Carolina Central
Could go this week: Savannah State
A strange week indeed in the MEAC. Hampton shouldn’t have had any trouble with North Carolina Central, but needed overtime to get past them. The surprising Aggies of North Carolina A&T stumbled, but it took overtime for Howard to accomplish that. Norfolk State, who I expected to win an offensive shootout with Bethune-Cookman, lost a defensive slugfest instead. And Florida A&M got past South Carolina State when the opposite was expected.
So, all that leaves us with eight — EIGHT — teams within a game of the lead in the loss column. This one’s not just going down to the wire, it’s probably going to require arcane investigative powers to sort out a tiebreaker at the end. It’s so messed up I can’t even put the two-loss teams in the “could go this week” column, because they’re all still alive via potential tiebreaks at 5-3 (although the odds are ridiculously long). This week, Morgan State, Bethune-Cookman, and Hampton should win; SC State/Howard and NCA&T/Norfolk are both toss-ups.
MISSOURI VALLEY:
Eliminated: Southern Illinois, South Dakota State, Missouri State
Could go this week: Western Illinois, Youngstown State, Indiana State, Illinois State
Northern Iowa struggled a bit, but handled Southern Illinois. UNI QB Tirrell Rennie broke the school record for consecutive pass attempts without an interception, now at 146. South Dakota State outgained North Dakota State, but NDSU handily won the field position battle, helping them to a rout. Illinois State upset Indiana State in a tight game, and moved into the top 25, while Missouri State finally got off the winless list with a comfortable win over Western Illinois.
Look, this really is just a two-team race at this point, so the maybes and could-bes are just academic. Nevertheless, if Northern Iowa wins the big showdown with North Dakota State, everyone else BUT North Dakota State is pretty much toast. Youngstown and Illinois State would technically remain alive, as they haven’t lost to Northern Iowa yet, but come on. Speaking of that matchup… your guess is as good as mine. Overall, NDSU has had the better offense, while the teams are equal on defense. In conference, however, UNI has had the better offense, and the teams are equal on defense. It’s just hard to say what’ll happen here. Illinois State, Youngstown, and SDSU should win the remaining games.
NORTHEAST:
Eliminated: Saint Francis (PA), Central Connecticut State
Could go this week: Wagner, Robert Morris
Sacred Heart seemed poise to continue their winning streak, but Monmouth choked them out in the second half, using six sacks to limit SHU to 69 second-half yards. Bryant’s Jordan Brown ran for 179 yards in a win at Robert Morris; Brown leads the FCS in rushing with 1,308 yards.
Albany remains alone at the top of the heap, and they’re going to stay there since they travel to Wagner this week; an Albany win sends Wagner to the showers. Duquesne and Monmouth will battle to see who’s going to remain to challenge the Danes; the Dukes are a very slight favorite. Sacred Heart and Central Connecticut should pick up wins as well; if Sacred Heart wins, they’ll knock Robert Morris out of the hunt.
OHIO VALLEY:
Eliminated: Eastern Illinois
Could go this week: Tennessee State, Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri State
Matt Denham ran for 226 yards to lead Eastern Kentucky past Tennessee State. It’s EKU’s eighth home win in a row, and it puts them in position to challenge Jacksonville State for the title. UT-Martin stayed notationally in the race with a squeaker over hapless Eastern Illinois, which doesn’t provide a great deal of confidence in their ability to keep staying in the race.
The entire conference will be rooting for Tennessee Tech this week, and it’s entirely possible they’ll get their wish. If not, things become pretty dire, as a Jax State win immediately eliminates three teams. Realistically, because Eastern Kentucky has games left against both Jax and Tennessee Tech it dooms UT-Martin and Murray State as well, but there’s still a sliver of possibility there as that could all shake out into a massive tie at 5-3. If Tech wins this week, though… well, anyone of the aforementioned three teams that loses will be eliminated, but the others will cling to the faintest shred of hope. Tennessee State need not worry; they’re idle, so they can’t doom themselves. SEMO is probably screwed, as they should lose to UT-Martin; Austin Peay has a better chance, since they get Eastern Illinois this week. Eastern Kentucky will keep the top of the race interesting, as they should handle Murray State.
PATRIOT:
Eliminated: Nobody yet.
Could go this week: Bucknell, Colgate
Holy Cross endured six turnovers, six sacks, and negative rushing yardage… but had six sacks of their own, and held Bucknell to eight first downs all afternoon in escaping with the win. Lafayette uncorked over 500 yards of offense in trouncing Fordham, and Georgetown cruised past Colgate with little effort.
Lehigh should cruise past Colgate (eliminating the Red Raiders from the race), but the real battle will be Holy Cross at Georgetown. A Holy Cross win would eliminate Bucknell, and leave Georgetown and Lafayette praying for a wacky tie. Well, maybe not so much Lafayette, as a win over Bucknell would leave them still in striking distance. If Georgetown wins, everything’s pretty wide open, and Lehigh will take over the lead, all alone.
PIONEER:
Eliminated: Valparaiso, Davidson, Morehead State
Could go this week: Marist
Dayton’s Taylor Harris ran for 216 yards in the Flyers’ win over Morehead State, the first 200-yard rushing game in the PFL in over three years. Campbell is now riding a three-game winning streak after stunning San Diego in a wild shootout in which the Camels picked off San Diego’s Mason Mills five times. Jacksonville destroyed Davidson to win their 16th straight conference game, a PFL record. The win leaves them all alone atop the standings.
Jacksonville sits in the driver’s seat, but they, along with San Diego, are idle this week. Drake should easily win at Marist (who will be eliminated with the loss), and close to within a half-game of the Dolphins. Dayton will likewise cruise at winless Valparaiso, and Campbell has to be favored over Davidson.
SOUTHERN:
Eliminated: Western Carolina, Citadel
Could go this week: Tennessee-Chattanooga, Elon, Samford, Furman
Furman never trailed, grinding out yardage on the ground to upset Wofford at home. Citadel ran roughshod over Western Carolina, picking up 435 yards on the ground in the rout. Appalachian State, Chattanooga, and Georgia Southern all cruised in lopsided routs.
The other massive game this week in terms of national importance is Georgia Southern’s visit to Appalachian State. ASU is tough, but GSU should handle this. Wofford, still stinging from last week’s loss to Furman, should take out their frustration on Elon, while Samford shouldn’t have any issues with Western Carolina. Citadel will likely beat VMI out of conference. That leaves Furman and Chattanooga; it could go either way, but I’d lean toward the Mocs.
SOUTHLAND:
Eliminated: Nicholls State
Could go this week: Southeastern Louisiana, Stephen F. Austin, Lamar, McNeese State
Brady Attaway threw for 384 yards and seven TDs as Stephen F. Austin blew out Nicholls State, ending their five-game losing skid. Central Arkansas has won four in a row after an easy win over Lamar in the first-ever meeting between the two schools.
Of the four schools that “could” go, you can count on three of them being gone. Sam Houston will take care of Lamar directly, and an SHSU win also eliminates Southeastern Louisiana and the loser of the McNeese/SFA game, which… could be either one, really. Central Arkansas will probably beat SELA, which means they’ll be gone even if SHSU somehow stumbles.
SOUTHWESTERN:
Eliminated: Mississippi Valley State, Alcorn State
Could go this week: Alabama A&M, Texas Southern
Last week’s brawl led to 40 suspensions, 15 four Southern and 25 for UAPB. The suspensions will be staggered over three weeks, with the exception of the eight players who received two-game suspensions; those will be served immediately.
Grambling needed overtime to escape winless Mississippi Valley State, as a 17-point lead evaporated in the final quarter. Texas Southern piled up 320 rushing yards on D-II Central State in a breezer, and Alcorn plowed unaffiliated Concordia (AL).
Alabama State visits Alabama A&M in a game which the Hornets should win, which will eliminate A&M from the East race. Jackson State meets Prairie View in a cross-divisional game; I expect Jackson to win, further sending the west race into absolute chaos. Texas Southern will beat MVSU, but if Prairie View upsets Jackson State, TSU will be done for. The other two games? I have no idea.
INDEPENDENT:
South Alabama once again had to play two overtimes, but this time, they came up short, ending their perfect record against non-FBS opponents. Let’s pour one out for one of the coolest stories of the last two years. The Jaguars move on to face D-II Henderson State, where they should get back on track.