I don’t have anything really exciting to lead with this week, so let’s just get right down to business. This week’s games to watch:
#2 Mount Union at 4-1 Heidelberg
#14 Delaware Valley at 4-2 Albright
#18 Salisbury at #23 Alfred
4-0 Centre at #24 Birmingham-Southern
4-2 McMurry at 4-1 Texas Lutheran
6-0 Endicott at 4-2 Plymouth State
4-2 Emory & Henry at 5-1 Hampden-Sydney
5-1 Washington & Lee at 5-1 Randolph-Macon
5-1 Huntingdon at 5-0 Trinity (TX)
5-1 Westminster (MO) at 5-0 Saint Scholastica
The favorites all won easily this week, in a week which saw the HSU/HPU game delayed due to lightning, and the McMurry/SRSU game halted 19 seconds into the final quarter for the same reason. Twice, Mississippi College gave up six points on punts; once on a return, and once on a blocked punt which was scooped and brought into the end zone.
UMHB will remain in first place this week no matter what; they’re out of conference hosting Southern Oregon, and should probably win. The question is whether on Sunday morning they’ll be a half-game up on McMurry or tied with Texas Lutheran, as those two teams square off in Seguin. It’s a close call; if they were playing in Abilene, McMurry would be the favorite, but they’re not, so your guess is as good as mine. Louisiana and Hardin-Simmons should coast; MC/ETBU is a toss-up.
The entire conference was off last week. This week, Johns Hopkins should win, and will retain a one-game lead over Ursinus and the winner of the Muhlenberg/Gettysburg matchup, which is too close to pick despite Gettysburg leading D-III in total offense and scoring offense. Susquehanna and McDaniel should pick up victories as well.
Johns Hopkins now has the third-longest winning streak in the nation — period — at 10 games, trailing Whitewater (35) and Stanford (13).
Wheaton’s Garrett Meador threw for 445 yards and four TDs to lead the Thunder past Elmhurst. Carthage pulled a mild upset, knocking off Millikin on the road.
That leaves Illinois Wesleyan and North Central alone at the top, where they’ll remain after wins this week. Wheaton will certainly handle North Park, and Carthage should have no trouble with Augustana, meaning next week we should see four pairs of teams in the standings: one pair each at 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-3.
All four games went as expected Saturday. Norwich won the Sap Bucket behind Kris Sabourin’s 229 yards rushing, including a 63-yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage. Gallaudet scored on the first play as well, a 59-yard pass from Nick Elstad to Ryne Worsham, and picked off three Husson passes on the way to the rout. Another 200-yard rusher was the ECFC’s leading runner Johrone Bunch, who added another 211 yards while Scott Drosendahl threw three TD passes and ran for two more in Mount Ida’s thrashing of Anna Maria.
Two games this week are easy picks: Maritime and Mount Ida. Castleton should get past Becker, as well. That leaves the game which will shake up the top of the standings one way or another, as Gallaudet visits Norwich. The winner will be in first place — either alone by a half game over Maritime if it’s Norwich, or tied with Maritime if it’s Gallaudet. On paper, Gallaudet would be a slight favorite, but the game’s in Vermont, so it’s a toss.
Ryan Seymour was the hero for Saint John Fisher, blocking a 29-yard field goal attempt with under six minutes to go which would have given Ithaca a 13-10 lead, and then with Fisher themselves leading 13-10 after their first overtime possession, blocking Ithaca’s 35-yard attempt to send the game into a second extra frame. Alfred also won on an overtime field goal, this one coming after Hartwick missed on their possession. Turnovers continue to plague the Saxons; three led to 14 Hartwick points. Salisbury only led Springfield by five at halftime, but exploded in the second half.
Salisbury travels to Alfred for a big game between ranked opponents. Between Salisbury’s potent offense — the Gulls have scored over twice as many points in conference play as all but one other team in the E8 — and Alfred’s turnover problems, I expect Salisbury to remain unbeaten. They’ll stay a half-game up on Saint John Fisher, who should handle Frostburg at home. The other two games are toss-ups.
A strange, strange turn of events in the HCAC this week. Defiance scored a huge upset, knocking off Mount Saint Joseph on the road for their first win of the season. Then on Tuesday, Defiance head coach Rob Taylor resigned. Taylor had led Defiance to top-three finishes in the league in five of his six seasons, and was the school’s all-time leader in coaching wins. He’ll be replaced on an interim basis by DC Nate Jensen, who played DE for Taylor in the early part of the last decade, and was a member of the school’s 2001 HCAC championship squad.
Bluffton also scored a mild upset, punching back and forth with Manchester to get the game to overtime, and winning on a field goal once there. Jonny West threw for 407 yards and four TDs as Franklin rolled over Rose-Hulman. Safety Rory Mannering had himself a big day in Hanover’s destruction of Earlham, with a pick-six, a forced fumble, a blocked punt, and six tackles. It was the largest margin of victory for the Panthers since 1975. The win also sets Hanover up as Franklin’s primary threat down the stretch.
Hanover is idle this week, however, and Franklin should dispatch Manchester with ease, stretching their lead to a game and a half. Rose-Hulman could join Hanover in a tie for second with a win over MJSC, but that’s not only uncertain, it’s unlikely. Defiance should make it two in a row as they visit winless Earlham, and Bluffton is a slight favorite over Anderson.
It was weapon against weapon in the big tilt between Dubuque and Wartburg. Dubuque’s Michael Zweifel moved into the #2 spot all-time across all levels of college football with 18 receptions on the day (and he caught another pass… playing cornerback). He finished the day with 259 receiving yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t enough, though, as Wartburg, behind 225 rushing yards and two TDs from Connor Dahlstrom, escaped with a narrow victory.
What’s Wartburg’s reward for beating an undefeated yet unranked team? Moving up one spot in the polls, and into a four-way tie for the lead four games into the conference slate. None of the four co-leaders appear to be at risk of a loss this week (Coe is idle, and the other three should win). The race will be whittled down by inches through the rest of the season, as after this week there is one matchup among the leaders each week to season’s end.
Merchant Marine QB Alex Coviello had 243 yards and two TDs on the ground and one TD pass, leading USMMA to a mild upset over WPI. Hobart dispatched Union, remaining unbeaten and swapping places with Union atop the standings.
Hobart will remain alone at the top this week as they take Saturday off, along with RPI and WPI. Union should win and pull back into a virtual tie, although Hobart will have two games in hand. Merchant Marine will probably handle Rochester at home.
Adrian remains unbeaten, and unranked. In fact, if you extend the poll, they’re only #31, which is ridiculous. Albion, who started 0-3, is still tied for the conference lead, having not yet lost since conference play began.
Adrian will take the week off, which isn’t going to help get them into the top 25, and is also going to allow either Hope or Albion to take sole possession of first place. Hope’s a slight favorite there. Trine and Kalamazoo should pick up their first conference wins Saturday.
DelVal did what DelVal do, grinding out a defense-laden victory over Wilkes. Lebanon Valley rallied from a 10-point hole, scoring 17 unanswered to hand Albright their second straight defeat; by tradition, this means Lebanon Valley students now get the day before Thanksgiving off. Widener stomped FDU-Florham, setting a school record for points scored in consecutive games with 125.
LebVal, Lycoming, and Widener are all easy picks this week. DelVal should handle Albright, but an upset there is not out of the realm of possibility.
Mike Blodgett amassed 194 receiving yards — his sixth consecutive 100-yard receiving game — as Monmouth remained atop the standings with an easy win over Ripon. Illinois College effectively discharged Saint Norbert from the race with a mild upset, helped by two picks and a forced fumble by DB Dylan DeFauw. Carroll rolled over Lawrence to stay tied for second with IC, and Lake Forest notched their first win of the year.
Mostly easy pickings this week; Ripon, Grinnell, Monmouth, and Illinois College should all win handily. Carroll is a favorite over Saint Norbert, but that game will be competitive.
Everyone who should have won did, and none of the games were even close. So much so that nobody even put up overly impressive individual performances, because starters were mostly kicking back on benches for the second half.
The result of all that? Saint Thomas, who hosts winless Hamline this week, has a stranglehold on the proceedings. Bethel and Saint Olaf should cruise this week, while Augsburg will try and stay within hailing distance of the lead when they visit Concordia; on paper, though, I think Concordia’s actually the better team.
Framingham is now in control in the Bogan Division, crushing Fitchburg behind 171 rushing yards from Melikke Van Alstyne. Despite 203 rushing yards from Marcus Price, Worcester State fell off the pace, as they were upset by Mass Maritime thanks to a fumble forced by Walter Butler in the final two minutes which led to the game-winning touchdown. That drops Worcester into a tie for second with Maine Maritime, who scored on a 74-yard Matthew Rende TD run late to force overtime before dispatching Westfield, who picked up 186 yards on the ground from Michael Mercandante. Bridgewater prevailed over Coast Guard with the aid of a 67-yard fumble return for a TD and a 40-yard interception return from safety Eddie Jewel.
Over in the Boyd, Mass-Dartmouth got manhandled by Salve Regina, dropping them out of the tie at the top. Western New England and Endicott took care of business to remain in the lead, while Plymouth edged past MIT to stay in the hunt.
Worcester may get back into the lead this week, as they’ve got a winnable game against Bridgewater while Framingham visits Maine Maritime in a toss-up. Wins by Worcester and Maine Maritime would knot the league race again at 3-1 for the leaders. Mass Maritime should handle Fitchburg, while Westfield at Coast Guard is a dumpster fire. On the other side, Western New England is in the better position, as they’ve got a sure thing at MIT while still-unbeaten Endicott has to host Plymouth. Endicott should win, but their chances of losing are decidedly greater than WNE’s are. UMD should take down winless Nichols, and Salve Regina will be a slight favorite at Curry.
Okay. Williams is not Williams this year, as has now been made quite apparent with a loss to Bates. Amherst and Trinity took care of business to remain on top of the table, while Colby and Tufts are mired at the bottom, winless.
Since Amherst visits Colby and Trinity visits Tufts, nothing’s going to change this week. In the middle of the standings, I figure Williams has to have enough in the tank to get past Middlebury, while Wesleyan should handle Bates. Hamilton/Bowdoin, I just don’t know.
No surprises at all, though Kean had far more trouble than they should have with Buffalo State. Montclair all but knocked Cortland out of the race, and did knock them out of the top 25, as Jake DelVento scored the final points of the game with 1:16 left on a 32-yard field goal to put an end to a see-saw contest. As was the case last year, Montclair built a lead, then choked it up late; unlike last year, their final effort to regain the lead was successful. Unfortunately for Montclair, part of the reason for this year’s second half collapse was a key injury: starting QB Tom Fischer suffered two fractures, and his replacement, Drew Cathey, appears to have ball-control issues. (H/T to Nick Petrilli for the update here.)
Kean will definitely still be atop the standings after Saturday, as they visit winless Brockport. Montclair will have more trouble with William Paterson, but should win despite the change in quarterbacks. Rowan, CoNJ, and Cortland should all win as well, keeping the top half unchanged.
Wittenberg lost a regular-season game for the first time in 25 tries as they got handily upended on the road by Huntingdon. That leaves Wabash in full control after the Titans thumped Washington (MO). Denison fell at Chicago, and none of this matters a bit to the conference race, as they’re all non-conference games.
This week, however, the leaders all have relevant matters to deal with. Wittenberg, still in the actual lead, will stay there as they visit winless Kenyon. Wabash should also have no trouble with Oberlin. Denison visits Allegheny, and they’re slight favorites, but both teams have been inconsistent enough that anything’s possible. Hiram’s going to lose a non-conference game at Case, while Wooster will probably fall at Washington.
Things started so well for Maranatha, and now they’re just awful. Concordia (WI) flat rolled them this week behind 225 yards rushing by Joseph Paul. Benedictine handled Aurora and Lakeland blanked Rockford to stay in a tie for first. Wisconsin Lutheran falls out of first with a loss to Concordia (IL).
One shakeout will occur Saturday, as Benedictine should kick Concordia (WI) to the curb. The other Concordia will have no trouble with winless Rockford, while Maranatha should end their skid at Aurora. Will Lakeland remain tied for the lead? I honestly have no idea, but WLU is a better team on paper.
Linfield just destroyed winless Puget Sound, with their highest offensive output since 1927, and Willamette kept Pacific winless in a rout. Pac Lutheran needed a 36-yard field goal from Nick Kaylor as the clock struck zero to escape Whitworth.
Pac Lutheran hosts NAIA #25 Menlo in what should actually be a very good game, although irrelevant to the conference race. Because of that, Linfield, who visits Pacific, will take sole possession of the lead; Lewis & Clark, idle last week, will tie Pac Lutheran for second after dealing with Whitworth. Willamette should keep Puget winless, as well.
And… thus did any semblance of a real race in the OAC die. Heidelberg stuffed Muskingum, leaving Mount Union as the only team unbeaten in conference play, and you know what that means. Even if you beat them, you’d better hope you’re the only team tied with them at the final gun. Everything else went precisely according to plan, however.
Heidelberg’s reward for getting Muskingum mostly out of MUU’s way is a visit from the Purple Raiders, so the picking-off of Union’s pursuers begins in earnest. Muskingum visits John Carroll, who may or may not have righted the ship; regardless, the winner will remain a game off the pace, the loser will be finished. I’ll call Baldwin-Wallace over Ohio Northern, keeping B-W in the hunt. Capital should deal with Otterbein, while Marietta should get their first conference win hosting winless and hopeless Wilmington.
Hampden-Sydney outlasted Bridgewater, and Washington & Lee needed a 40-yard Peter Alston field goal to avoid overtime against Emory & Henry. Randolph-Macon won a crazy shootout in DC behind Zac Naccarato’s 372 passing yards and four TDs. Naccarato’s favorite target was Christian Cook, who gathered in three of those TDs and had 212 receiving yards. Catholic’s Greg Cordivari had 317 aerial yards and three scores for the losers.
The top four all square off this week, with E&H visiting HSC and W&L traveling to Ashland to take on RMC. These are all really, really good teams despite not being ranked, and anything could happen. Catholic and Bridgewater should grab wins in other action.
Washington & Jefferson is all but out of the picture now after a surprising loss to Saint Vincent; it was SVC’s first-ever win over W&J. Thomas More cruised, while Waynesburg remained unbeaten in-conference with a wild win over Geneva. Waynesburg QB Josh Graham slung six TD passes in the win. Westminster escaped Bethany to stay in hailing distance of the lead.
It could be absolute separation week, as Thomas More travels to Saint Vincent and Waynesburg visits Westminster. Wins by the leaders would set up a November 5 showdown for the conference title, as neither team appears to have two losses ahead of them if they escape this week. Bethany and Geneva are my picks for the remaining two games.
The only surprise this week was that Millsaps had trouble with Austin, but they did prevail in the end, helped by 175 ground yards by Thomas Theriot. Idle Birmingham-Southern cracked the top 25 this week, entering at #24.
Trinity hosts Huntingdon in what’s suddenly a very intriguing non-conference matchup, while what could conceivably be the last regular-season meeting of the year between unbeaten teams outside the NESCAC is afoot as Centre visits B-SC. Both games are toss-ups. Sewanee should get past DePauw; I don’t know about Rhodes at Millsaps.
(As to the “last unbeatens” thing: Linfield and Lewis & Clark may both be unbeaten when they meet, as might Kean and Montclair State, but both games are on the season’s final weekend, so upsets could derail those showdowns.)
La Verne surprised Occidental, while the two ranked teams had easy pickings. (Sorry, the SCIAC is still the worst conference in D-III as far as providing weekly information. Feel free to send them nasty letters.)
Cal Lutheran, Redlands, Chapman, and Oxy should all win this week, which is exactly what I said last week.
For the second week in a row, everyone but Washington won. Of course, last week Washington didn’t play, which makes this week a bit different. Chicago’s little whippet Dee Brizzolara is back on the radar this week; he only touched the ball four times against Denison, and single-handedly provided the margin of victory by scoring three times. By next December, you’re going to think the kid’s 30 years old; he’s still only a junior, and it feels like I’ve been talking about him for five years. Case safety Dan Calabrese picked off three Oberlin passes, and ran two of them back for scores, in the Spartans’ win.
Carnegie and Chicago are idle this week, while Case has an easy win coming against Hiram. Washington, I dunno. Defense may do the trick against Wooster.
Scholastica and Eureka remain atop the ladder with wins, though Eureka’s was fraught with peril as Martin Luther threatened the upset. Westminster rebounded from last week’s stumble to dispatch Morris, while Presentation and Greenville both won for the second week in a row, downing winless opposition.
Those winless teams are just going to keep on winlessing this week, although if MacMurray’s going to win before getting a shot at Crown, this week’s their best bet. Eureka should dispatch Morris, while the big game of the week has Westminster visiting Scholastica in a toss-up.
I can’t believe I, or anyone else, was expecting NC Wesleyan to make the playoffs. Talk about a major whiff all around. Their loss to Ferrum leaves them 1-4, and the most disappointing team in all of D-III. Ferrum is joined at the top of the standings by Christopher Newport, who escaped Shenandoah in overtime. Averett doubled up Greensboro; in the loss, Greensboro LB Allen Stallings racked up 20 tackles. And then there’s Huntingdon, who you have to assume is the prohibitive favorite for the 2012 USA South title at this point. Knocking off Wittenberg by 18 points? Impressive.
Huntingdon has a very real chance to make their case for a Pool C bid this week, as for the second week in a row they face a 5-0 squad in Trinity (TX). Ferrum, Newport, Shenandoah, and… well, NC Wesleyan, since they get winless Greensboro, should all win this week.
Oshkosh outlasted Eau Claire to earn the honor of sharing the conference lead with Whitewater, and in the process earned the #25 spot in the poll this week. Whitewater rolled, as expected, while Stout put Stevens Point in a hole they can’t possibly escape from now.
Whitewater will do the same to Stout this week, while Oshkosh should put an end to Platteville’s hopes of a title. Stevens Point should win, and Eau Claire’s a slight favorite to put La Crosse out of the title picture for good.
Wesley took care of Frostburg without incident, while Macalester is now inexplicably at .500 after dealing Hiram an expected defeat. Mac’s off this week, while Wesley will probably have its starters on the bench 20 minutes into a game against Virginia College of Lynchburg.
A Note:
If you actually read this site, and are not a spammer, you should seriously consider retweeting or otherwise pimping it. If I continue thinking I am writing for a couple dozen people, I am very likely to just give up Real Soon Now.
#1 by KSB on 19 October 2011 - 12:13 am
I don’t comment often enough, Jon, but I really enjoy this blog. I have a few “favorites” of mine that I now use TOG almost exclusively to follow–Texas Lutheran in particular, as well as App State. Thanks for all the work you do putting it together.