The CAA takes over the poll, and this week we’ve got 7 games with two top-25 opponents facing one another (and that’s with three ranked teams idle).
Big doings:
#24 Tennessee-Chattanooga at #1 Georgia Southern
#17 Indiana State at #2 Northern Iowa
#3 Montana State at 3-1 Portland State
#4 North Dakota State at #20 Southern Illinois
#19 Maine at #7 James Madison
#9 William & Mary at #13 Delaware
#10 Lehigh at 4-1 Bucknell
#14 Richmond at #25 Towson
#22 Southern Utah at #18 South Dakota
BIG SKY:
Montana State probably put an end to any chance of Sacramento State yo-yoing their way into contention on Saturday. Eastern Washington finally got off the deck with a narrow win over Weber State, and Portland State remained in a tie for the league lead for now, racking up a school record 436 yards on the ground in escaping Idaho State. The Vikings had two 200-yard rushers on the day; Connor Kavanaugh had 212 and four TDs, and Cory McCaffrey had 218 and two scores. They might have had more, but PSU set a Big Sky record in the game by being called for 21 penalties.
Weber State QB Brady Hoke — no, really, that’s his name, and he’s no relation to the Michigan coach — took over the longest no-interception streak in FCS after Holy Cross QB Ryan Taggart got picked off by New Hampshire on Saturday. Hoke has gone 192 attempts, dating back to 2009, without throwing a pick. Something fun also happened in Missoula during the Grizzlies’ rout of Northern Colorado: Nate Montana threw his first career TD pass. That’s Joe’s son Nate, and it’s just weird that Montana is the QB at Montana, alright?
I said “for now” in regard to the Vikings, of course, because they host Montana State this week, and the Bobcats should dispose of them. Montana will likely continue recovering from their early-season woes. Expect wins from Sacramento and Northern Arizona (I would have gone with Eastern Washington, but UNA’s defensive profile thus far is too solid).
BIG SOUTH:
I told you, didn’t I? Charleston Southern remains winless, getting punked by D-III Wesley. Liberty cruised to their 200th win all-time, led by 126 yards and four TDs from one of the greatest names ever, Sirchauncey Holloway. Gardner-Webb was unable to fight off Samford.
CSU, thankfully for everyone concerned (including us), is idle this week and will thus be spared further humiliation. Liberty and Coastal should win without incident, and Stony Brook should get past Presbyterian.
COLONIAL:
Well, mighty Towson couldn’t get past Maryland, but it’s not like this is shameful. They remain in the top 25; Massachusetts does not after losing to Old Dominion. However, despite this the CAA now has EIGHT teams in the top 25 after last week’s seven, as Old Dominion basically replaced Massachusetts directly while Maine moved in after knocking off Delaware.
Eight ranked teams, and none of them are Villanova or UMass. Let that sink in.
Maine was led by 193 yards and three scores from RB Pushaun Brown, as well as four interceptions of Delaware QB Tim Donnelly. James Madison limited Richmond’s offense to -12 yards on the ground and 118 overall in their rout. New Hampshire scored with 1:10 left on a 60-yard pass from Kevin Decker to Justin Mello to escape Holy Cross in their home opener.
After throttling Richmond, James Madison is now in sole possession of first place, but three teams lag only a half-game back, all with a game in hand. There’s one definitive shake-out this week as JMU hosts Maine. I suspect a possible upset here, but I’ll stop short of calling it outright. New Hampshire should remain in the lead pack as well. Towson hosts Richmond, and frankly there is absolutely nothing to indicate to me that Richmond’s going to win. Towson’s giving up a third as many points as Richmond in FCS play, while their offenses are basically equal. William & Mary takes their smoke and mirrors show on the road to Delaware, and the Blue Hens are probably going to win; the most telling aspect of the Tribe’s season thus far is that Saturday was the first time all season Villanova didn’t appear completely overmatched.
Old Dominion and UMass should also pick up wins, and here’s a scary thought: if Maine, Towson, ODU, and UMass all win, there may be NINE ranked CAA teams next week. Yeesh.
GREAT WEST:
That was unexpected. Southern Utah lost the first game they really couldn’t afford to lose last week, and although it’s not a nail in the coffin, they’re going to have to win out now to get any playoff consideration. North Dakota sealed the win on an interception in the end zone on a pass from the 19-yard line as time ran out. UND sophomore RB Jake Miller earned GWC offensive player of the week honors for the third week in a row, this time rumbling for 161 yards and two TDs, including the eventual game-winner.
Their first step on that journey comes this weekend, as they travel to Vermillion to take on the Coyotes. An SUU win would be just as damaging to South Dakota as SUU’s loss last week was to the Thunderbirds, and would make North Dakota breathe a lot easier. A USD win, on the other hand, effectively ends the season for the defending conference champions, and sets up a potential winner-take-all scenario when the Dakota teams face off to close out the regular season.
The other three teams should all win handily, although Cal-Davis might possibly be primed for an upset special at the hands of unbeaten D-II Humboldt State.
IVY:
Penn and Princeton both struggled, but crawled up off the mat to claim shares of the league lead in the second half-week of conference play. The non-conference half of the schedule saw a 3-1 advantage in the Ivies’ favor, with only Yale’s expected loss to Lehigh marring the record. Five turnovers doomed the Yale effort.
Week three of the half-and-half could see all the teams playing non-conference games saddled with losses, though I think Penn likely gets by Fordham. Yale and Harvard should prevail in the two conference tilts for the week.
MID-EASTERN:
Norfolk State squeaked past SC State with the help of a goal-line stand on SCSU’s final possession, taking sole possession of the league lead and knocking the Bulldogs out of the top 25. The loss ended SCSU’s 15-game conference road winning streak; the last loss was also against Norfolk in 2007. Effectively tied for second, but with two games in hand, is North Carolina A&T, surprising winners over Morgan State in their conference opener; three blocked field goals and a defense that held the Bison to 33 rushing yards aided the effort. Bethune-Cookman put an early scare into FBS Miami, but wilted under the usual depth pressure. Howard snapped a 29-game conference losing streak, winning at Savannah in a game which began with a coin flip from SSU Hall of Famer Shannon Sharpe.
No games this week I’d qualify as key tilts; just a lot of action between teams in the middle of the pack that will help separate the maybes from the nos. Norfolk, Morgan, SC State, and BCU should all win; Florida A&M is a very slight favorite over Howard. Hampton hosts Princeton in a winnable non-conference meeting.
MISSOURI VALLEY:
Three of the four ranked teams in the Valley did precisely as expected, but Southern Illinois suffered an upset at Western Illinois which leaves them in deep trouble. WIU scored the upset thanks to a tipped-ball reception with 26 seconds remaining by WR Terriun Crump, who raced 77 yards for the winning score. Northern Iowa coach Mark Farley won his 55th MVC game, breaking the tie atop the league’s all-time conference-game coaching wins list he shared with the opposing coach, Missouri State’s Terry Allen (a former UNI coach himself). Indiana State’s Shakir Bell rushed for 199 yards in the Sycamores’ win over South Dakota State.
The Salukis will host North Dakota State in a game they are likely to drop, which will definitively leave them two games off the pace behind the UNI/Indiana State winner (likely UNI). Illinois State and Youngstown State should win as well. WIU is idle.
NORTHEAST:
Pre-season favorite Central Connecticut is officially reeling now, below .500 not only overall but in conference following an upset loss at home to Sacred Heart, who scored 16 unanswered points in the fourth for the comeback win. Duquesne won the battle for first place with Bryant, and it looks like it’s their league to lose at this point after Robert Morris upset the other primary contender, Monmouth.
The Dukes travel to Albany, where they’ll almost certainly knock another foe out of the race. Robert Morris should get past Saint Francis in the other conference game. Out of conference, Bryant should win, Sacred Heart’s got a good shot, and everyone else is going to lose.
OHIO VALLEY:
The leaders all won, along with Southeast Missouri State. Tennessee Tech was rewarded for their win over UT-Martin with a spot in the poll, bringing the OVC back up to two ranked teams; both are idle this week. Austin Peay moved to 2-0 in conference play for the first time since 1977, storming back from a 27-6 hole to escape Tennessee State.
That’s somewhat good news for Austin Peay, because the Governors are going to lose to UT-Martin this week, but will only fall one game off the pace in the process. Southeast should join them at 2-1 in conference. Murray will probably pick up a win out of conference against Georgia State, while Eastern Kentucky should handle Eastern Illinois.
PATRIOT:
Everything went as planned Saturday in the Patriot, and Lehigh moved into the top 10 after trouncing Yale. Ryan Taggart threw for 412 yards for Holy Cross in their touchdown loss to New Hampshire, but got picked off for the first time in 209 attempts, breaking his FCS-leading streak.
That brings us quite neatly to this week’s key game, as Lehigh finally opens their conference slate by traveling to Bucknell. Lehigh should win this game, but if Bucknell does beat them, the conference race suddenly comes down to the Bucknell/Holy Cross game in two weeks. Out of conference, Holy Cross, Colgate, and Georgetown should prevail, while Fordham will probably fall at Penn.
PIONEER:
Butler scored a small upset, squeaking past Dayton and leaving the conference race a three-headed affair after Drake, Jacksonville, and San Diego all won handily. Valparaiso remains hapless and winless after getting thumped by Morehead State. Drake’s Mike Piatkowski was 30-33 for 342 yards and three TDs in the Bulldogs’ win over Campbell. The 90.9 completion percentage is an FCS single-game record for 30 or more attempts.
The schedule again features four obvious winners this week in Butler, San Diego, Davidson, and Drake. The only game up for grabs is the meeting between last year’s co-champs as Dayton visits Jacksonville. That one qualifies as a true toss-up.
SOUTHERN:
Someone left a pile of banana peels on the SoCon schedule Saturday. Furman avoided them, easily beating Western Carolina to retain a share of second place a half-game back of #1 Georgia Southern, as QB Chris Forcier earned SoCon offensive player of the week honors behind four TDs and 237 yards in the air. Wofford scored a mild upset, doubling up Appalachian State with some firm red zone defense, while The Citadel edged Chattanooga by a point on the road after trailing by 24-0 at the half, helped by two interceptions and a blocked punt in the second half. UTC managed to cling to the bottom of the poll despite the loss.
Sadly for the Mocs, their stay in the top 25 is going to end this week when they travel to Statesboro to get walloped by Georgia Southern. Wofford should handle The Citadel, and Furman and Elon are likely winners. Appalachian State is now staring at the prospect of being two full games behind GSU (and Wofford, effectively), and a game and a half back of Furman, without being able to do anything about it at all; they’re idle this week.
SOUTHLAND:
McNeese state pulled into a half-game lead with a close-fought win over Northwestern State, while Sam Houston State remained unbeaten by handling UTSA, helped by two Kenneth Jenkins interceptions. Lamar is officially part of the conversation now, for the moment at least, having opened conference play with a fairly crazy win over Southeastern Louisiana. We can safely kiss Stephen F. Austin goodbye now, as they lost to Central Arkansas despite 390 passing yards from QB Brady Attaway. The Lumberjacks fell to 1-4 on the year.
Nothing key this week, as Sam Houston will almost certainly stomp SFAU, while McNeese should get by Texas State, although that’s far less certain. Central Arkansas and Lamar should pocket wins as well.
SOUTHWESTERN:
Other than Alabama A&M’s one-point win over UAPB, which wasn’t really an “upset”, everything went the way you’d expect Saturday in the SWAC. Which, of course, is precisely not what should have been expected, since… SWAC. Jonathan Troast came off the bench to throw four second-half TD passes, leading Prairie View to a win over Grambling. Deaunte Mason threw four TDs, three in the fourth quarter, in Alabama A&M’s win over UAPB.
The East Division race is getting very close to showtime now. Alabama State, already up a game and a half over Jackson and Alabama A&M, will probably win at Texas Southern, the end result of which should be all three teams staying right where they are. In the west, I can’t even begin to predict the outcome of the PVAMU/Southern game, but if Prairie View wins they’re going to have a 2.5 game lead.
INDEPENDENT:
After a week off to recover from the first two losses in program history, South Alabama returns to FCS play hoping to at least extend that streak to 20-0. They’ll travel to San Antonio to face an uneven Roadrunner team, and as is our custom we’ll pick the Jaguars to win.