Since we’re actually (gasp) caught up, and I got all four previews up before a single game had been played at any level this week (oh, my), I actually have time to tinker with ideas. So today, I thought I’d take a peek at the differences between the divisions on paper. I’m using the Massey Ratings for this, since Richard includes every team down through the NAIA, and has a formula separate from the one he provides to the BCS in which he does include margin of victory.
Naturally, there’s not really anything surprising here. I will argue as to the aesthetic superiority of the lower divisions in certain respects until I’m blue in the face, but none of those respects includes “quality of play”. Mostly, this is just a fun look at how things compare both on average and on the margins.
Beating Down the Little Guys
The first thing we’ll examine is the expected pointspread between average teams in different divisions. These are based on Massey’s power rating, which is obviously not 100% accurate or anything, but it’s generally a reasonable figure for starting a pointspread discussion. I’ll lay it out in chart form first, then discuss separately:
(rounded to the nearest half) 1FBS vs 1FCS: 31.5 1FBS vs Div2: 49.5 1FBS vs NAIA: 70.0 1FBS vs Div3: 78.0 1FCS vs Div2: 18.0 1FCS vs NAIA: 38.5 1FCS vs Div3: 46.5 Div2 vs NAIA: 20.0 Div2 vs Div3: 28.0 NAIA vs Div3: 8.0
Again, those are averages, which are rather abstract and have no feeling. We can give them some feeling by checking to see which teams best identify those averages:
1FBS: Toledo 1FCS: Southeastern Louisiana Div2: Southwestern Oklahoma State NAIA: Evangel Div3: Mount Saint Joseph
Of course, for most people reading this, unless they’re really absorbing my weekly recaps, this isn’t very meaningful information (except for Toledo exemplifying the “average” FBS team; in fact, Toledo’s “power rating” happens to be exactly equal to the average FBS power rating, and they are 60th out of 120 teams by that metric). However, you can plug each of those teams in to the first chart and the pointspread answer would be the same; Toledo should beat Evangel by 70.
Big Dogs
Who are the best teams at each level?
1FBS: Alabama (MM): Navy or Temple 1FCS: Northern Iowa Div2: Northwest Missouri State NAIA: Carroll (MT) Div3: Wisconsin-Whitewater
I included the best mid-major (excluding the Mountain West, so as to remove Boise and TCU from the mix), because that’s sort of interesting too. Note that the best team in D-III, Whitewater, would be a four-point favorite over the best NAIA team, Carroll; that’s because Whitewater thus far has been so dominant that they’d be a ten-point favorite on neutral turf over D-III’s #2 team, Mount Union. At the same time, the NAIA has much more parity; Carroll has the #1 power ranking despite having LOST a game to another NAIA squad.
Obviously, the best team in every division would indeed win any division below them.
How many teams in divisions above them is the best team in a lower division “better” than?
1FCS leader Northern Iowa would be expected to beat 37 FBS teams on a neutral field. (Well, 36. They’d be pick ’ems against Utah State, nestled between Kansas and Virginia; the Big 12 is, using the current numbers, the only FBS conference Northern Iowa would be expected to finish dead last in on paper.) North Dakota State is right there behind UNI, who would be a one-point favorite on a neutral field.
Surprisingly, Div2 leader NW Missouri would be favored on a neutral field over EIGHT FBS teams (Western Kentucky, Memphis, Akron, New Mexico, UAB, Eastern Michigan, New Mexico State, and North Texas). Even more startling, however, is that NW Missouri would be a top-20 team in FCS; they’d be favored on neutral turf over all but 16 teams, sandwiched between Sacramento State and Southern Illinois.
NAIA leader Carroll would not be favored over any FBS teams on a neutral field — but would be expected to beat Memphis at home. The Saints would be about smack-dab in the middle of FCS, with 60 teams ahead of them and 66 behind, between Stony Brook and Yale. In Division II, Carroll would be ranked #15 between Midwestern State and Hillsdale, but as noted would fall to #2 if they dropped “down” to D-III.
Div3 leader Whitewater would be favored over Memphis, Western Kentucky, and Akron on a neutral field; at home, add New Mexico and Eastern Michigan to the mix. They’d be ranked 50th out of 127 if you plopped them into FCS, between Samford and Illinois State. They’d be the #7 team in D-II between Pittsburg State and West Texas A&M, and would be #1 in the NAIA, of course.
Sad Sacks
Turning it around: who’s the worst so far?
1FBS: Memphis (AQ): Indiana 1FCS: Valparaiso Div2: Livingstone NAIA: Haskell Div3: Presentation
I reversed the polarity here, as it were, including the worst AQ.
How would the worst team in each division fare if they dropped down one or more levels?
Memphis would be 59th out of 127 teams in FCS, sandwiched right between Harvard and Stony Brook, or just a tick better than NAIA leader Carroll. Of course, Memphis is so bad, they’d barely be a top-10 team in D-II. Their power ranking would place them eighth, between West Texas A&M and Colorado State-Pueblo. They’d be #2 in D-III behind Whitewater.
Indiana, the worst BCS-conference team, would fare better of course; they would be the #8 team in FCS (right between Appalachian State and New Hampshire), and would be the top team in every level below FCS.
Valparaiso would be 151st out of 162 D-II teams, comparable to William Jewell and Black Hills State. Yes, they’re that bad. They’d be 49th out of 84 NAIA teams, between Valley City State and Olivet Nazarene, and 96th out of 240 D-III teams, between Bethany (WV) and Carroll (WI, not MT).
Livingstone, D-II’s worst team, would be #69 in the NAIA, between Trinity International and Friends; they’d be stuck between Ohio Wesleyan and Geneva in D-III, at #178.
Lastly, Haskell, the NAIA’s most inept squad, would rank #237 in D-III, only ahead of Presentation, MacMurray, Crown, and Becker.
Strength in Numbers, or the Weakness of Crowds
Lastly, I thought it would be interesting to look at conference averages and see if there are any that stick out. Unfortunately, Massey doesn’t break the NAIA down into conferences, so we can’t do any fun things there.
1FBS: Big 12 1FCS: Missouri Valley Div2: Gulf South Div3: Wisconsin 1FBS: Sun Belt 1FCS: SWAC Div2: CIAA Div3: Upper Midwest
The Sun Belt would be the best conference in any lower level, which is not at all startling, and the Missouri Valley would be the worst FBS conference if they moved up. That said, the best D-II teams wouldn’t embarrass themselves in the Sun Belt, and the best FCS teams would be contenders.
If the Gulf South moved up to FCS, they’d be toward the lower end, comparable to the Northeast Conference. However, if the SWAC moved down to D-II, they’d be in the middle of the pack, comparable to the South Atlantic Conference.
If the Wisconsin IAA moved up to FCS, they’d be dead last, behind even the SWAC. A move to D-II would see them in the middle of the field, about equal to the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference.
Lastly, if the CIAA moved down to D-III, as bad as they are in D-II they’d become the third or fourth best conference in D-III, roughly equal to the American Southwest Conference and the CCIW.
A caveat
When we’re talking about “what would happen” if we moved teams up and down among divisions, it’s vitally important to remember we’re just talking about right now. If you really moved teams and conferences, there are two important factors that would change everything, and the impact of those factors would be that teams moving up would perform even better than these numbers suggest, and teams moving down would perform worse.
Those factors are, of course, scholarships and exposure. Teams moving up would be able to offer more players, and would get better players; teams moving down would lose players and have a harder time recruiting the ones they do get. So it’s vitally important that you take everything above with the appopriate amount of sodium.