Conference play really starts to get moving, and some races are already starting to gel.
Several key games this week:
#2 Mount Union at #24 Ohio Northern*
2-2 Saint John’s (MN) at #3 Saint Thomas (MN)
#19 Louisiana at #4 Mary Hardin-Baylor
#7 Wheaton (IL) at 3-0 Illinois Wesleyan
#9 North Central at 3-0 Carthage
#13 Redlands at #20 Cal Lutheran
3-0 College of New Jersey at #10 Kean
4-0 Adrian at #17 Trine
3-0 North Park at 2-1 Elmhurst
3-0 Mount Saint Joseph at 3-0 Franklin
3-1 Monmouth (IL) at 3-1 Saint Norbert
3-0 Maine Maritime at 4-0 Worcester State
4-0 Endicott at 3-1 Curry
3-0 Catholic at 3-1 Hampden-Sydney
3-1 Emory & Henry at 4-0 Randolph-Macon
*grudgingly included since it’s a game between top-25 teams, but… well, find out more after the jump.
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST:
I goofed. I assumed since McMurry was competing this year as a provisional D-II member, they were being redacted from the ASC standings. Not so, says the ASC. Jake Mullin threw for 448 yards as Hal Mumme’s team crushed ETBU.
Two ASC teams plunge from the rankings, although Louisiana, winners behind Ryan Montague’s 200 yards on only 12 carries, replaces their vanquished foe from Mississippi and gains four spots on the Choctaw’s old ranking besides. Louisiana has won nine straight, tied with Johns Hopkins and Williams for the second-longest current winning streak in D-III. (Of course, you can’t be in that position unless you didn’t play in the playoffs the previous year unless you happen to be the defending champion; the longest winning streak in D-III is Whitewater’s 33-game skein.) UMHB wasn’t able to vault back over Saint Thomas again, much to the Crusaders’ chagrin.
There may only be one ranked team left after Saturday, as UMHB hosts Louisiana. I’m hesitant to flat-out call for the upset here, as the Wildcats have played a bit less troublesome schedule than UMHB… but at the same time, I can’t ignore the fact that Louisiana’s scored with far more profligacy than UMHB, and has allowed significantly fewer points than the Crusaders’ vaunted defense. Over the past three years, Louisiana has slowly narrowed the margin against UMHB, losing by four at home last year. It should be a close game, and Louisiana may very well escape Belton with the win, but until Louisiana actually does beat UMHB for once, you’ve got to assume the reverse.
In other action, Hardin-Simmons, McMurry, and Texas Lutheran should all win.
CENTENNIAL:
Two weeks ago, Johns Hopkins destroyed Susquehanna; Saturday they had a little more trouble with Muhlenberg, but still came away with the win and moved into the top 25. With Gettysburg’s overtime loss to Susquehanna, that puts the Blue Jays a full game in front of the rest of the conference, and they already have wins in hand over half of the teams tied for second. As noted, Hopkins has won nine in a row.
In Gettysburg’s loss, Ted Delia rambled for 244 yards and three TDs, and added a 66-yard punt return for another touchdown. Heck of an effort in a losing cause.
Hopkins is going to retain that lead, as they visit winless Juniata, now riding a 16-game losing streak. Either Susquehanna or Muhlenberg will keep pace (go with Muhlehberg if you’re picking it), and both Gettysburg and Ursinus should as well. The problem for all four teams, of course, is that their chances of winning Saturday are less than JHU’s. In the remaining game, Dickinson is a very slight favorite, but F&M might eke out their first win of the campaign in the annual Conestoga Wagon Trophy game, the longest and most-played rivalry in the Centennial Conference. They’ve met 102 times, beginning in 1889.
CCIW:
Two teams played; two teams won, as we pretty much expected. That means the CCIW closes out non-conference play with an overall record of 18-6 — 18-3 if you subtract hapless Augustana from the equation. North Central and Wheaton still have to be the favorites to duel it out for the crown, but it’s clear their road isn’t going to be easy. This, of all conferences in Division III, is the race to watch this season. It says something that I consider three of the conference’s four games this week “games to watch”.
One unbeaten will certainly fall by the wayside Saturday, and while it’s easy enough to assume it will be Illinois Wesleyan, I will direct your attention to the standings above. Nine points. IWU has allowed three field goals all year, while Wheaton’s actually surrendered three touchdowns a game. I’m officially not calling this game, because I just don’t know how real IWU’s defense is. I will say this: it should be a relatively low-scoring and tight affair.
Unbeaten Carthage hosts North Central, and I think in this case the traditional power will prevail; since their surprising loss to Redlands, NCC has just poured on the offense. The same scenario holds for unbeaten North Park’s visit to Elmhurst, as I expect the Vikings to suffer their first loss here in the face of a potent offense. This wouldn’t be stunning, as North Park has lost their last 75 conference games. Their last win, though, way back in October of 2000, was against Elmhurst. Millikin should have no trouble with Augustana.
EASTERN:
Two teams picked up thheir first wins of the season thanks to the miracle of conference play, a third did so as a result of getting to play a small trade school, and a fourth… well, Mount Ida actually slogged out a dreadfully ugly win in a real live non-conference game against an unbeaten opponent, aided by Frank Greene’s two interceptions and a fumble forced and recovered to seal the win. That’s worth some applause.
Done clapping? Now for the bad news. Both of your current leaders are probably going to lose this week, meaning next week it will be New York Maritime taking rightful possession of first place. They should be joined by Gallaudet, who will probably take advantage of the vacant spaces on the other side of the line of scrimmage which should be occupied by Anna Maria’s defense, except they don’t have one, which is why they’ve lost 22 straight games. Castleton QB Shane Brozowski threw for 458 yards and seven TD’s against Anna Maria last week, and — no disrespect intended to him — it barely fazes me. In the fourth game on the schedule, Becker figures to finally win their first game of the season against a Husson team that has already given up over 70 points twice in three games.
I’ve been trying to think of the right analogy here. New York Maritime is to the ECFC as Tennessee would be to the Sun Belt. Except there’s actually a few decent teams in the Sun Belt. Hmm. Let me work on that some more and get back to you.
EMPIRE 8:
Kind of a goofy weekend for the Empire. Hartwick’s stupid and pointless loss has been discussed. Frostburg lost a game they were expected to lose, while Saint John Fisher got blown out in a game that should have been close, if not a win. Alfred took care of business, at least, and Salisbury moved back into the poll after a thrilling 0-0 tie with Bye.
This week’s picks become much easier when taking all this into account. Alfred has seen Fisher exposed, and should win; Salisbury should get past Utica, and I think if Hartwick had the gall to lose to Mount Ida they’ve got no business expecting to beat Ithaca. Springfield ought to have little trouble in their non-conference tilt against Merchant Marine.
HEARTLAND:
The two games with obvious results had, well, obvious results. Rose-Hulman got off the winless list in a mild upset over Hanover, while Anderson did the same in not-an-upset-at-all over Earlham.
This week, the conference championship itself is basically on the line, as MSJ vists Franklin. The winner is really just going to have to avoid tripping over their own shoelaces the rest of the way, because these two teams are that much better than the rest of the conference. I think I’m going to suggest MSJ is a slight favorite here, although my perception may be colored by the statistical effect Franklin’s loss to Whitewater is having on paper.
Manchester will probably hang on against Rose-Hulman, which will at least give the two big dogs someone to worry about. The other two games are complete crapshoots, although at least either Earlham or Bluffton will shed the winless tag this week.
IOWA:
You may be asking just what in the hell happened here? #10 Wartburg gets upended at home by 1-2 Coe? Winless Buena Vista absolutely jackhammers unbeaten Cornell? Winless Simpson chokes out a Loras team that, if nothing else, has been able to score points? At least Dubuque won, with senior wideout Michael Zweifel (from Whitewater, Wisconsin of all places) hauled in 16 catches for 232 yards, and moved into sixth place all-time in receiving yards in D-III history. The guy throwing him all those balls, Wyatt Hanus, went 33-45 for 418 and six TDs. The win was Dubuque’s first over Central since 1987, and it’s the first 4-0 start for the Spartans since 1979.
The final result of all of this is that you now have 4-0 Dubuque sitting atop the standings with Coe, and they may well be all alone there after Saturday’s action. Coe visits Central, and I think Central will win. Dubuque certainly will, unless chaos really is the operand in the IIAC this year. Wartburg should handle Cornell, and Loras will probably crawl out of the cellar with winless Luther on the docket.
LIBERTY:
Results last weekend weren’t too startling, although Union’s win was a mild upset and Hobart’s decisive beatdown of Fisher was unexpected. The key takeaway from this is that I now expect Hobart to have little trouble with Saint Lawrence. WPI should handle Union, and RPI should probably outscore Rochester. Merchant Marine’s headed for a non-conference loss to visiting Springfield.
MICHIGAN:
Everything went exactly as planned, leaving the standings in a curious state: after four weeks, without any conference games being played, none of the seven teams has the same record. That would, of course, be impossible had they all played four games, or if only one team had played three; two have played three, making it possible but still freakish.
Kalamazoo QB Nick Jones threw for 329 yards and four TDs, and ran for another 93 and two scores, as the Hornets destroyed Benedictine.
Conference play gets underway Saturday and right away we have the biggest showdown of the year as unbeaten Adrian travels to #17 Trine. The winner, and I frankly have no idea who that will be, will join Kalamazoo and Hope atop the standings, as Olivet’s D-III leading 31 game losing streak stretches to 32.
MIDDLE ATLANTIC:
Let’s see, Albright, Lebanon Valley, Delaware Valley, mmm-hmm… Widen– WHAT? Unbeaten Widener fell to winless Wilkes, which shakes things out a little ahead of schedule as the three leaders were expected to sail through all the way to October 15th before anyone got any separation.
Well, it doesn’t really change too much, I suppose. Albright, DelVal, and Widener should all win this week, while Lebanon Valley kicks back and relaxes. After last week, I guess we have to favor Wilkes over Florham.
MIDWEST:
Carroll knocked Ripon out of the unbeaten ranks and out of the conference lead with a one-touchdown victory, and Monmouth did the same to Illinois College in a rout. Saint Norbert cruised to remain at the head of the pack with Monmouth, and Beloit finally got on the board with a relatively easy win at still-winless Knox. Also still winless: Lake Forest, who lost a shootout to Grinnell when they ran out of ammo.
That sets up the biggie, as Monmouth travels to DePere to face Saint Norbert. The winner will be awarded with a full game lead over the loser, as well as Illinois College, Ripon, and Carroll, all of whom should win this week. Grinnell should latch onto sole possession of sixth place as they visit Beloit.
MINNESOTA:
As expected, Saint Olaf drubbed Gustavus and the Tommies knocked off Concordia. Carleton’s win wasn’t a surprise, but hammering the Pipers by 34… yeah, that was a little startling. The game of the week, though, saw Augsburg remain undefeated with a 32-31 squeaker over Saint John’s. Augie drove 80 yards on four plays in the final 18 seconds of the game to score the winning touchdown, a 32-yard strike from Marcus Brumm to Wesley Waytashek. Brumm threw for 401 yards and four TDs. The loss puts the Johnnies’ season on life support while keeping Augie tied for the league lead.
Why are the Johnnies on life support? Because they’re going to lose again this week when they travel to Saint Thomas. Bethel should deal with the annoyance of Saint Olaf, Augsburg will beat Carleton, and Concordia pretty much has to be able to handle winless Gustavus at this point. As for winless Hamline, they travel to MacAlester for a game I’d normally suggest they should win without problems, but… one, there are problems, and two, MacAlester’s actually competent this year.
NEW ENGLAND:
Two of the conference’s five undefeated teams aren’t anymore, as Bridgewater and Mass Maritime were upset in their divisional openers. Another one is going away this week, as Maine Maritime travels to Worcester; I’m favoring the Mariners here. Coast Guard should remain tied for the Bogan lead as they travel to offenseless and defenseless Fitchburg. In the Boyd, Endicott should remain unbeaten when they visit Curry. Other winners: expect Bridgewater, Plymouth, WNE, and Dartmouth. Framingham/Mass Maritime looks to be the most closely contested game of the week.
NESCAC:
The only surprise as the NESCAC opened for business was Hamilton’s win over Tufts, Hamilton’s first season-opening win since 1992. Coming up, Amherst, Wesleyan, and Tufts should win. Williams and Trinity meet in the game of the week.
NEW JERSEY:
Nothing out of the ordinary here. Everyone won that should have; the only game that should have been close was.
Montclair, Cortland, Paterson, and Rowan should all win this week, leaving the conference with three teams still at 0-4 in the process. One of the conference’s three unbeatens is going down, however, as CoNJ visits Kean on Friday. Kean’s probably going to win, but an upset is not out of the question.
NORTH COAST:
Another conference where everything went according to form, at least among those teams actually in the conference. That caveat, of course, refers to DePauw’s upset loss to Rhodes.
Everything’s pretty straightforward this week as well. DePauw won’t be upset this week, as they won’t be favored against unbeaten Centre. Wabash and Wittenberg should both remain unbeaten, and Wooster should come out ahead of Denison. The three games against UAA teams… well, the UAA’s been playing like they’re on hallucinogens this year, but I think it’s safe to say that Hiram and Ohio Wesleyan are going to lose, and Allegheny might also.
NORTHERN:
Five teams idle, and three teams lost non-conference games. The NAC concludes non-conference play with a 6-17 record, which is actually a little better than should have been expected. Doesn’t make it any less abysmal.
Either Concordia (WI) or Rockford will finally win a game this week, but I’ll be damned if I know which one. Aurora should cope with Lakeland, Maranatha with Wisconsin Lutheran, and Benedictine with the other Concordia.
NORTHWEST:
The haves, have-nots, and what-the-hells have already separated themselves. Linfield remained perfect by pounding La Verne, while Lewis & Clark stayed unbeaten by getting past MacAlester much more closely than they should have. Meanwhile, Puget Sound and Whitworth were just outclassed, though Puget’s Adam Kniffen did catch three TD passes and racked up 216 receiving yards in the loss.
Puget’s going to fall to 0-4 as they visit one of the two WTH teams, Pac Lutheran. The other WTH team, Willamette, hosts Linfield in a game Linfield should win, but Willamette’s much better than that 1-2 record indicates. Lewis & Clark will remain unbeaten, traveling to winless Pacific.
OHIO:
Well, that was unexpected, although certainly not outside the realm of reason. Muskingum remains unbeaten and tied for the conference lead after upsetting #9 Ohio Northern. The loss nearly dropped ONU out of the poll, and failed to get Muskingum in; this will have repercussions which we’ll discuss in a moment. Capital handed Baldwin-Wallace their first loss to also remain atop the leaderboard, while John Carroll finally got a win under their belt.
Muskingum is the beneficiary of this week’s schedule, as they can be virtually assured they’re still going to be tied for first place after Saturday’s games. Capital may not be so lucky, as they travel to Heidelberg for a game they’re perfectly capable of losing. B-W should handle Marietta, and John Carroll… well, reputation leads me to say they should defeat Otterbein, even if paper is telling me otherwise.
That leaves the conference’s game of the week, as Mount Union travels to Ohio Northern. There’s really no way for me to sugarcoat this; ONU hung around high in the poll for no valid reason whatsoever, based solely on pre-season expectations. They’re 2-1 on the year, and their point differential is in the red despite not having actually been blown out by Muskingum. Meanwhile… well, Mount Union. Let’s get real here. So after Saturday, the mighty OAC is probably only going to have one ranked team unless a few teams tumble out of the poll, because Muskingum’s not going to gain any traction by demolishing Wilmington, losers of 19 straight.
So after this week, Mount Union and Muskingum will be free and clear of the rest of the conference, and wouldn’t you know it, the schedule fortuitously and presciently has Mount Union traveling to Muskingum… on November 12, the final week of the season.
OLD DOMINION:
So, the ODAC — a conference rich in tradition and known for football excellence, although lagging a bit behind the Mount Unions and Whitewaters and Wesleys and Mary Hardin-Baylors of the world — enters conference play with an overall record of 19-6… and not a single ranked team, now that Hampden-Sydney slipped up against Huntingdon. Bridgewater did fall from the ranks of the undefeated in an absolutely humiliating and unexpected defeat at Ferrum, but that’s just a hiccup and has nothing to do with the five quality teams ahead of them in the standings. Randolph-Macon and Catholic remain unbeaten, and only one team is under .500, and now they get to beat up on one another, which will make getting teams into the poll somewhat difficult.
Bridgewater should not suffer such a brutal fate again, as they host Apprentice. Washington & Lee should pick up a win against the conference’s other weak link, Guilford. That leaves two fantastic games, as Emory & Henry visits RMC in a game I’m not sure I can predict, and Catholic travels to Farmville to take on Hampden-Sydney, who will probably win. (As you can see, Catholic is 3-0… and has outscored the opposition by only 8 points.)
PRESIDENT’S:
Three games weren’t expected to be close; one was, but the “right” team still came out on top. One game was expected to be… and man, was it. Thomas More escaped previously-unbeaten Washington & Jefferson by a field goal, and is now in control of the cockpit.
W&J should brush Westminster aside, while Saint Vincent (still in the hunt, and playing impressive football) will have no trouble with winless Geneva. Thomas More is going to destroy winless Thiel; the remaining winless squad, Grove City, is idle, so the PAC will at least be spared the humilation of three 0-5 teams as October begins. The final game, Bethany at Waynesburg, could go either way.
SOUTHERN CAC:
A few days ago, Patrick Dorsey wrote a nice article on Sewanee’s history in the SEC on ESPN’s Page 2.
Three teams went into last weekend unbeaten, and all stayed that way. Only Centre did so with aplomb, however, destroying Austin; Birmingham-Southern won an expectedly close game with Sewanee while Trinity had all sorts of trouble with Millsaps before escaping with a mere 10-3 win. Rhodes, as mentioned above, scored an upset over former conference-mate DePauw.
Trinity takes a week off to figure out what the hell happened to their offense (43 points a game before last week’s limp effort). Sewanee should probably take care of Millsaps, but if last week was more an indication of adjustments by the Majors’ defensive staff than problems with Trinity’s offense, that could go the other way just as easily. Birmingham-Southern will move into an actual tie with Trinity atop the ladder as they travel to hapless and winless Austin, while Centre will not; they will win, but they play DePauw in a non-conference game. Lastly, Rhodes will probably fall to LaGrange.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA:
La Verne got pounded, as did incoming member Chapman. Whittier, though, exploded for 66 points and got on the right side of the ledger. Everyone else was idle.
CMS should deal with La Verne, who’s been jackhammered both times out. It’ll be a question of whether Occidental’s defense or Whittier’s offense controls the game in that contest, while Chapman/Pomona could go either way. That leaves us with Redlands at Cal Lutheran, which should be a pretty good tilt. I’d say Redlands is a slight favorite here.
UNIVERSITY:
Surprisingly, with the possible exception of the Washington/North Park game, everything went exactly the way it should have last week, and now the UAA standings look like someone’s been grading on a curve.
This week, Washington is idle, and everyone else should win. But you just never know with these guys.
UPPER MIDWEST:
Martin Luther got off the deck with a very mildly surprising win at Crown, while everyone else did what they were supposed to. Two teams remain perfect; four remain completely screwed, though that number will be cut by at least one this week as Greenville visits Crown. Crown seems slightly less incompetent, so go with them. Sam Durley threw eight TD passes and piled up 478 yards in Eureka’s win.
Presentation has a fighting chance to pick up their first win in program history against Martin Luther, who are slight favorites by virtue of actually winning a game this year. MacMurray, on the other hand, is going to remain winless. Hell, I’m close to predicting an 0-10 year for them, considering they’re getting outscored 42-3 on average. But this week, especially, they’re doomed as they travel to unbeaten Saint Scholastica. Westminster, also perfect on the year, hosts Eureka; Westminster should win that one, clearing Eureka out of Scholastica’s way so the two unbeatens can march methodically toward their meeting on October 15.
Northwestern, if you’re just looking at the standings, might seem to be an easy pick over Morris, but a lot of that point differential happened just last week against MacMurray, so don’t get too excited. The winner will remain part of the discussion, while the loser is toast.
USA SOUTH:
Only three actual conference members were in action; one lost by a touchdown to a team by whom they could well have been crushed, and the other… well, I don’t know what got into Ferrum, but thanks to them this was actually the best week the conference has had all year. As conference play begins in earnest, the USA South takes home an unsightly 5-19 non-conference record, including an 0-3 start by a trendy playoff pick in North Carolina Wesleyan, the third team that played this week, who lost by a touchdown to LaGrange.
Speaking of LaGrange… Huntingdon, their fellow travelers on the road to USA South membership scored a nice upset over #22 Hampden-Sydney. Let’s be perfectly clear about this: Huntingdon and LaGrange between them have won as many games as the entire conference combined. That will necessarily be no longer true after Saturday, but that’s because four teams are guaranteed to win, and Huntingdon and LaGrange can’t very well win four games between them in one week. But that’s neither here nor there. What’s important is this: the two incoming teams have to be looking at this and just flat out salivating over what awaits them next season.
As for those four guaranteed wins: Shenandoah and Ferrum will pick up two of them. The other two games, Magic 8-Ball refuses to give me any answer other than “REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN”.
WISCONSIN:
Note: The Oshkosh/Stout and River Falls/Eau Claire games were not conference games; both pairs of teams will meet again on the last week of the season for their conference matchups.
That said, the results of those games create a big bunchup in the middle of the league at 2-1 overall, while River Falls and La Crosse remain winless. Stevens Point picked up an expected non-conference win as well.
Platteville is temporarily the conference leader, but that will all come crashing to a halt Saturday when they get curbstomped by Whitewater. Eau Claire, Oshkosh, and Stevens Point should join the Warhawks atop the ladder.
INDEPENDENTS:
As expected, Wesley trucked Husson, holding the Eagles to -15 yards rushing. Wesley’s leading rusher, Devar Robinson, only gained 57 yards; the Wolverines won by returning kickoffs for touchdowns and forcing turnovers deep in Husson territory and seemingly starting their drives in the red zone half the time. Also expected was MacAlester’s loss; not expected was the narrowness of the margin. This week, MacAlester hosts Hamline in what is actually a winnable game, while Wesley jumps two classifications to visit a really, really bad Charleston Southern team; I already called my shot on this the other day. I think Wesley’s going to win.