Programming note: trying another new format. I don’t know how long it will last, and since nobody’s telling me what works and doesn’t work, I am going to keep flailing away with ideas.
Saturday we had three upsets in the top 11, a slight correction within the top 5, and a whole bunch of shakedown cruises heading into conference play for most of the division. Big games for the coming week:
#3 Saint Thomas (MN) at 2-0 Concordia-Moorhead
#4 Mary Hardin-Baylor at #21 Hardin-Simmons
#8 Thomas More at 3-0 Washington & Jefferson
#9 Ohio Northern at 2-0 Muskingum
#16 Alfred at 2-0 Springfield
#23 Mississippi College at 2-0 Louisiana
2-1 Muhlenberg at 3-0 Johns Hopkins
2-1 Central (IA) at 3-0 Dubuque
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST:
Mary Hardin-Baylor had an exceptionally tough time with provisional D-II McMurry before escaping with a win. That cost them the #3 spot in the poll, as they were overtaken by a mere 10 points, swapping places with Saint Thomas. HSU’s loss to Mississippi College was a thorough surprise. The Choctaws enter the poll as a result, and they’re the only team in this week’s poll that wasn’t in last week’s.
UMHB should get past HSU, though it won’t be a cakewalk. It’s a shame HSU lost, because this would have been a 4-8 matchup otherwise. I suspect Mississippi College’s defense is going to fail them at Louisiana. McMurry has thus far shown enough chops (if you ignore their season-opening humilation against Stephen F. Austin) to knock off ETBU, while the Texas Lutheran/Howard Payne game could go either way.
CENTENNIAL:
Johns Hopkins continues to be the class of the league, although Gettysburg and Muhlenberg have staked a claim to some voice in the final outcome. Gettysburg is going to have to do something about their defense, though; 29 points a game isn’t going to cut it.
Hopkins will almost certainly shake off the Mules’ pursuit this weekend, while Gettysburg and Susquehanna will engage in a likely shootout to see who’s really in the chase position. Most of the bottom six match up too neatly for predictions, although I’ll take Dickinson over Moravian.
CCIW:
North Central seems pretty angry about that season-opening loss to Redlands, y’all. Teams from schools named “Augustana” are now a combined 0-6 on the year. A 5-2 week for the CCIW, which is actually subpar.
Only two games on the slate this week as most of the conference takes a break to prepare for conference play. I would expect North Park to lose, but Washington was sort of exposed last week, so this one’s a toss. Wheaton, on the other hand, is going to crush Olivet.
EASTERN:
Same old story, same old song and dance. Maritime won a slugfest, while the rest of the league got curbstomped; excluding Maritime, the league is a combined 0-16. There’s good news, though; someone besides Maritime WILL win next week. In fact, at least TWO someones. Thank God for conference play, say the teams in the ECFC.
EMPIRE 8:
Nobody lost a non-conference game. The Empire 8 is like the funhouse mirror version of the ECFC, with a 14-0 non-conference record thus far. That will change this week, I expect, because I don’t think Frostburg’s getting past Randolph-Macon in a matchup of teams from (going solely by record, anyway) the two strongest conferences in the nation. For that matter, Hobart/SJF isn’t a cinch. Alfred should handle Springfield and move into a tie for the conference lead. If not, Springfield will steal sole possession from idle Salisbury.
HEARTLAND:
Not a single surprise in the HCAC slate last week. We now have a four-way tie, which will probably be a two- or three-way tie come Sunday. Franklin and MSJ are going to win. Hanover should, but I’m not as confident. Manchester, the fourth team in the mix, is idle, and will slip a half-game back.
IOWA:
Everything went as planned in Iowa, as well. This week, Wartburg and Cornell should remain unbeaten. I am not so sure about Dubuque; Central is probably the superior team. Their wins this week were about equal, they both beat Augustana by nearly the same margin. It’s the third game on their respective resumes that gives pause. Dubuque won, crushing a really bad Anderson team; Central lost, but to UW-Oshkosh by a mere field goal. Frankly, I think you have to consider this game a complete tossup.
Oh, and Loras will probably get by Simpson.
LIBERTY:
Not a happy week leading into the opening of conference play. The only unbeaten playing, Rochester, got completely eviscerated. If it weren’t for the ECFC, nobody would have won at all. This week, I can’t really predict anything. Rochester and RPI probably ought to win, but there’s nothing about anyone’s resume here that would justify optimism.
MICHIGAN:
The weekend went pretty well. The two teams that had no business winning at all didn’t; everyone else did. Trine, especially, provided some bona fides to their resume by easily knocking off a WIAC squad. They’ll take a week off to prepare for their inevitable steamrolling of the conference.
One team that will object to that characterization is Adrian, now 3-0. Unfortunately, they haven’t really been tested yet, so even their gaudy point differential isn’t that meaningful. This week, they get a winnable game against an opponent that actually has a pulse, and we’ll see if they’re in the discussion. Likewise, Kalamazoo plays the favorite in the Northern AC, but it’s winnable.
A data entry error that I didn’t catch until after I uploaded everything: Olivet is not playing unranked Wheaton, they’re playing #7 Wheaton. I would suggest that the party at Olivet responsible for scheduling both North Central and Wheaton on back-to-back weeks be sacked, because that’s really just a horrible thing to do to your team. It’s even worse when your team is really bad. Finally, Hope ought to win, while Albion and Alma probably won’t.
MIDDLE ATLANTIC:
Last week, I complained that Delaware Valley shouldn’t have pulled into the poll; clearly angry at my slight, they justified their ranking by thumping Lebanon, for which they… stayed at 25. Hell, don’t ask me. Nothing unexpected happened across the board.
DVU will remain unbeaten, as should Albright and Widener. Lebanon should bounce back, too.
MIDWEST:
Straight chalk in week two of conference play, leaving us with a perfectly balanced standings sheet. Things get hairy this week, however, as there’s a big showdown between Illinois College and Monmouth. Ripon also has to contend with a tough task on the road at Carroll. Saint Norbert is the only team atop the standings with an easy go of it.
MINNESOTA:
Mary Hardin-Baylor’s narrow escape had an impact on the MIAC, as Saint Thomas jumped over them to #3 in the poll after spanking Saint Olaf. Last week, I suggest Saint John’s was ripe for the picking by the Cobbers; the game went to overtime before the Johnnies escaped. Really, though, for me the story this week is “Wow, Gustavus is really terrible this year.” There’s really no other way to view a 9-6 loss to a mediocre NAIA team.
This week, the Cobbers will NOT stage an upset. I really am quite confident on this one. Augie/Saint John’s could go either way, while Saint Olaf should rebound against Gustavus. Avert your eyes from the final game on the schedule. Nobody should have to witness that.
NEW ENGLAND:
There weren’t any real curiosities in the final week of non-divisional play in the NEFC. Five squads will enter divisional play without a loss, four in the Bogan Division. None of those schools play another in the opening week, so it’s likely they’ll remain unblemished for now. Over in the Boyd, I’d expect Endicott to remain perfect, and Curry, WNE, and Plymouth should win as well.
NESCAC:
Finally, the NESCAC will get underway this week. Amherst, Williams, Wesleyan, and Trinity are probable winners. Not so sure about Tufts/Hamilton.
NEW JERSEY:
Western Connecticut State is apparently really, really bad. There’s no other explanation for losing by worse than nine touchdowns to a team which was previously 0-2 and looked horrible themselves. Montclair cost themselves four spots in the rankings with a desultory one-point win at Morrisville.
Kean, on the other side of the scale, is clearly for real. In two weeks, they’ve knocked off #3 and #11. You’d think that would result in a higher ranking than #12, but D-III voters aren’t any more logical than FBS voters. Anyway, the NJAC’s probably going to come down to the Kean/Montclair game in the season’s final week, although we shouldn’t write off Rowan or CoNJ yet either. And Cortland is still going to have a voice in the decision, too.
There’s an error in the schedule above; Cortland is #24, not CoNJ. Despite that, CoNJ will win this week, as will Montclair, and I shudder to think of what Kean is going to do to WCSU. Brockport/Paterson could go either way, as could Cortland/Rowan. Of course, one of those two games is far more relevant than the other…
NORTH COAST:
The only “surprise” wasn’t really one at all, as winless Wooster knocked off 1-0 Oberlin. Wittenberg avoided a trap game by a field goal, and Allegheny scored a nice win over incoming member DePauw.
This week, Allegheny is probably not getting past Wittenberg. Wabash should probably dispatch Chicago, but the Maroons are tricky beasts. Wooster should win, as should Oberlin and DePauw; I hold out little hope for Denison or Kenyon on Saturday, but the UAA has been spotty this year and anything’s possible.
NORTHERN:
Faceplant. The only team that won this week scored a relative upset, but Maranatha’s loss to Macalester was humiliating. The other losers can’t even really be blamed; they weren’t expected to win anyway.
This week, five of the eight teams are idle. The three teams playing will all be slight underdogs, but all could win without surprising me much.
NORTHWEST:
Probably the most positive result of the weekend for the NWC was that Linfield didn’t suddenly decide to go play an unscheduled game. Pac Lutheran blew a shot at making a statement. Willamette did get off the deck with a solid beat-down of D-II/NAIA Southern Oregon, and Lewis & Clark moves to 2-0, but in general it was a pretty murky week.
Things get better, though. Lewis & Clark should remain unbeaten, and Linfield as well. Puget Sound might get past Whittier, who looked horrible in their opener against Azusa. Whitworth, on the other hand, has to host one of the best Menlo teams in some time, one that flat-out drubbed Occidental last week.
OHIO:
The only thing remotely startling about this week was that Ohio Northern required overtime to get past Otterbein. They get rewarded for this with a three-spot jump in the polls? I’d have knocked them down. In fact, swap ONU and Kean, and things make sense. John Carroll is usually a fine team. It’s clear that this year is an exception now.
Wins: Baldwin, Union, Marietta, Otterbein. Either Ohio Northern or Muskingum is going to fall a lap behind in the race this week. ONU ought to win, but they’ve now shown themselves vulnerable.
OLD DOMINION:
Finally, some of these guys get around to losing. Emory & Henry and W&L fell from the ranks of the unbeatens, and Guilford falls to 1-2 after a somewhat stunning loss to Averett. (Not that E&H’s loss was any less surprising.) There are still four unbeatens remaining, however.
This week, there’s no reason to expect anyone to lose. Huntingdon is a good team, but Hampden-Sydney has just been rolling everyone in their path. Bridgewater has been running on smoke and mirrors to an extent, but Ferrum’s not good at all. Frostburg could challenge R-M, but I think the Jackets will come out on top. E&H and W&L have losses to avenge, and iffy opponents on which to express their anger.
PRESIDENT’S:
Not only was last week a perfect exercise in keeping to form, this week should be as well… with one potential exception. Three of the games involve 0-3 teams hosting 1-1 teams, and there’s nothing to suggest any upsets in the making there. The big game, though, is Thomas More at W&J.
SOUTHERN CAC:
Austin’s loss was not a surprise, as they’re clearly a bad team this year. What happened to Millsaps, on the other hand… I mean, Louisiana’s a very good team, but that was just ridiculous. Trinity stole a march on the rest of the conference, and did so in explosive fashion; they’re going to win big again this week in a rematch of the famous Lateral Game. Center will also remain unbeaten, while Rhodes appears set to stay winless. B-S should probably beat Sewanee, but I wouldn’t rule out the reverse by any means.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA:
So, Cal Lutheran wins by 11 over Pac Lutheran, a team with some cachet among the cognoscenti… and drops a spot in the poll. Okay, then. Redlands gains a couple with a much less impressive win over a much less impressive team. Nothing against Redlands, of course; the objection here is to the dropping of CLU. Occidental flat got trucked, and I can’t take them seriously as a threat anymore.
Only two games this week (plus Chapman’s inevitable loss to Azusa). They may both be losses; at least one will be, as La Verne is without hope (Linfield is #6, sorry for the data issue).
UNIVERSITY:
It’s not unheard of for the UAA to be completely schizophrenic, but this year seems to be an exceptional example. Washington’s loss wasn’t a big deal, especially the nearness of it. Chicago is obviously running hot and cold, and Carnegie seems to just be having bad luck.
All four teams could lose this week; all four teams could win this week. The least likely candidate for a win would be Chicago, while the most likely to win is Washington.
UPPER MIDWEST:
It doesn’t directly affect the conference race, but Morris losing to WLU effectively puts the entire race in the hands of Westminster and Scholastica now. That could change this week, as Morris visits Scholastica. The loser is probably out of the picture, while the winner joins Westminster as co-favorites. That’s because Westminster is going to win easily this week. Northwestern and Eureka should also. And Crown should pick up their first win, I’d guess; Martin Luther is just awful.
USA SOUTH:
The Huntingdon/Faulkner score above is WRONG; Huntingdon won 48-41. Sorry for that error.
Well, the good news is that Averett upset Guilford, increasing the conference’s entire win total by 33%. The bad news is that Greensboro couldn’t even win what should have been the conference’s gimme game for the week, falling to Apprentice. Nobody should ever lose to Apprentice, come ON.
Five teams are idle. Ferrum is doomed, Methodist will likely lose. NC Wesleyan should probably pick up a sort-of-non-conference win at LaGrange. As for the other not-yet team, Huntingdon may have a slight chance at Hampden-Sydney, though unlikely.
WISCONSIN:
Only three games were on the schedule. The two losses were not at all unexpected, as signified by the little bold numbers next to their names. And Whitewater kept on being Whitewater.
This week, Whitewater will not keep being Whitewater, as they take the week off. Stout, Eau Claire, and Platteville should win in conference tilts, while Stevens Point should take down Albion in OOC action.
INDEPENDENTS:
Okay, so two weeks in a row I’ve shot myself in the foot with the independents. First Wesley goes out and loses, then Macalester wins a game? I object. This week, though, I am sticking to my guns: Wesley is playing a Husson team that lost a game to Adrian 77-7. There’s no way Wesley gets upset here. And Macalester is playing an unbeaten Lewis & Clark team; they’re not going to win.